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Step 1: Estimate cumulative savings until 2040 from DOE Data
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Million metric tons CO2
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YearYellowDark blueLight blue
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20185,3005,3005,300
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20204,9005,1005,350
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20244,7004,9005,300
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20284,4004,8505,200
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20324,1504,7005,200
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20363,9004,6505,220
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20403,7004,6205,240
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Area between the yellow and the dark blue line (doubling of innovation effort): 10270.4 (cumulative million metric tons CO2 from 2018 to 2040)
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Area between the light blue and dark blue line (current innovation effort): 8829.45 (cumulative million metric tons CO2 from 2018 to 2040)
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Figure from Energizing America report
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https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/EnergizingAmerica_FINAL_DIGITAL.pdf
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Step 2: Cost-effectiveness if the world ended in 2040 and the US was the only country in the world
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Note: These columns are not used in this step, they are for later
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BENEFITS
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Innovation spending scenarioCumulative saving until 20402040 saving
Cumulative saving until 2100
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Current innovation spending8829.4562046029.45
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Doubling of innovation spending10270.492065470.4
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An interesting fact: The estimate suggests marginal returns to energy innovation would increase at increasing levels, doubled energy innovation would bring more than doubled benefit
116.32%142.24%
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COSTS
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DOE Budget in 2017 (in million)6600
ITIF, see Figure3-2 in Energizing America (rounded)
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Years23
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Cumulative DOE R&D budget (in million)151800
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COST-EFFECTIVENESS (marginal)USD/tCO2e
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Current innovation spending17.2
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Doubling of innovation spending14.8
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Step 3: Cost-effectiveness if we take into account the world does not end in 2040 and that the US is only a small part of future affectable emissions
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Comment
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Rest of World emissions share (larger than US)9US is currently about 15% of emissions and will decline to something like 5% over the next decades, 10% here as average over period
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Rest of World efficacy of saving emissions0.5The assumption that benefits in the rest of the world will be half-as-large outside the US than within the United States on a per-emissions basis
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Multiplier for rest of world savings4.5
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Reproducing step 2
Extension over time
Extension over space, but not time (step 2, but global)
Extension over space and time
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If the world ended in 2040 and only the US existed (USD/t)If the savings in 2040 would continue until 2100If we assumed the average share of US in global emissions over this time frame would be 10% and the innovation would be half as effective for the remaining 90% of global emissions and the world ended by 2040same, but world until 2100
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Cost effectiveness of original investment17.192463863.2978886343.8205475240.732864141
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Cost effectiveness of doubling margin14.780339622.3186050493.2845199150.5152455664
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