| A | B | C | D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | This represents a "back of the envelope" calculation for RW's cost-effectiveness when operating at large scale, i.e., in ~2025 | |||
2 | Parameter | Value | Comments | |
3 | Number of participants served | |||
4 | EA population size (# people) | 10000 | Growing by 15% per year: This is the estimated growth rate taken from 80k Hours. https://80000hours.org/2021/07/effective-altruism-growing/ The number of people who are EA adjacent that are interested in effective work might be even larger. | |
5 | Prevalence of mental health challenges or vulnerability to those (%) | 30% | Based on estimated prevalence in the course of 5 years (Our World in Data, 2021; Slate Star Codex, 2020; EA MHN & Rethink Wellbeing) | |
6 | Penetration rate (%) | 17% | Members of the EA community are not the only potential high-impact individuals. In 2024, we also run pilots to target other communities of highly ambitious altruists with promising impact potentials such as altruistic leaders, award-winners (students, scientists, etc.), and scholarship holders. This means our cost-effectiveness does not depend on whether we will reach the penetration rate we put in here as an estimation. | |
7 | Participants per year | 200 | This is how many partipants we believe we will be able to deliver to in 2025 after the next program iteration. N=150 plus the ones covering the costs on their own. | |
8 | ||||
9 | Program costs | These reflect expected costs when operating at scale, and thus, the budget and number served do not correspond to those shown in our application (which reflect RW's needs and goals for the next 7 months). | ||
10 | Overhead cost per program 20% including technology, research, HR, outsourcing, management (USD) | $11,400 | ||
11 | Program operations assistant yearly salary (USD) - 25h/week | $18,000 | ||
12 | Program manager yearly salary (USD) - 25h/week | $39,000 | ||
13 | Total cost per program per year | $68,400 | ||
14 | ||||
15 | Cost per person | $342 | ||
16 | Cost per hour treated per person | $19 | ||
17 | ||||
18 | Program effects through productivity increase | By focusing only on those benefits that flow from increased productivity, this estimate omits several important potential outcomes, including improved mental health for participants, improved EA community climate, increased dedication to EA, etc. | ||
19 | Estimated productivity | |||
20 | Est. increase in # of hours worked per week due to program efficacy | 6.00 | Conservative estimate based on the pre-post productivity increase measured in our study on 42 EAs. On avergage, they worked 4 hours more after, and reported a ~20% increase of productivity during the worked hours which equated to another ~5 hours (overall ~9 hours) . We took a conservative estimate of 6 hours to take into account that not all of this effect might be causal to the program. | |
21 | Est. increase in # of hours worked per annum due to program efficacy | 276 | Based on 46 working weeks of 52 weeks a year has | |
22 | Est. duration of the effect in years | 1.5 | Conservative estimate based on the analysis of the Happier Lives Institute in the duration of the effects of psychotherapy (p.11+) as well as the duration of the effects of layperson-guided mental health programs on mental health improvement (p. 18). We assume a linear relationship between mental health and productivity based on this paper. | |
23 | Est. revenue generated per hour | $24 | Assumes an average $50,000 salary ($24 / hour) | |
24 | Est. revenue generated per person as a result of increased productivity | $9,936 | We work with the underlying assumption that productivity is related to outcomes such as salary and quality of work. Based on a standard working year of 2,000 hours (assuming full-time employment), a 6-hour-per-week increase over 1.5 years would result in a 25% salary uplift for the additional hours worked. This means the equation is more applicable for freelancers, students, and employees in EA organizations than for employees in non-EA organizations. | |
25 | Est. revenue generated per year as a result of increased productivity | $1,987,200 | ||
26 | Est. full-time-equivalents generated as a result of increased productivity | 40 | per year of Rethink Wellbeing in operation | |
27 | ||||
28 | Estimated cost per lives saved | |||
29 | Cost per life saved when donating to one of GiveWell's top charities | $5,000 | This is a rough estimate based on: https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities | |
30 | Est. # of lives saved per person | 2.0 | If 100% of revenue generated as a result of increased productivity were donated to one of GiveWell's most cost-effective charities (AMF, in this example) | |
31 | Est. % of participants donating the value of their increased productivity | 10% | Some of this 10% of particpants may turn their increased productivity into donations; others may use it towards equally cost-effective labor supporting a variety of cause areas. The remaining 90% in this model use their reclaimed time for personal projects, leisure, non-EA labor, etc. | |
32 | Adjusted est. # of lives saved per person | 0.20 | ||
33 | Total # of deaths averted per year of operating | 40 | We use "deaths averted" as an outcome metric because of its common use as a benchmark, but participants may also use their time for cause areas with other outcome metrics (e.g., x-risk reduction, improving wellbeing, animal welfare, etc.) | |
34 | ||||
35 | Cost per death averted estimate | $1,721 | ||
36 | ||||