ABCD
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Methodology
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Dates run2024-10-10 - 2024-10-15
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Responses21,467
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GeographyArizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
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UniverseLikely voters
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Outcome metricsHarrisTrumpVoteChoice, HarrisFav
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Methodological Notes: This experiment used an augmented Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) methodology to evaluate the effect of each message on a dependent variable of interest. For example, if the dependent variable is presidential election vote choice, the RCT measures respondents' likelihood of voting for Vice President Harris in 2024. Average treatment effects (ATEs) compare the likelihood that respondents exposed to a particular message (a treatment group) will vote for Harris as compared to respondents who saw no message (control group). In this example, effects should be interpreted as: relative to no message, how much does this message increase or decrease the likelihood that a respondent will vote for Vice President Harris?
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Messages were fielded nationally using an online survey platform. Participants completed a short survey, which included a randomly assigned condition (treatment or control) and our outcome metric (Harris/Trump Horse Race) in exchange for compensation.