326 Politics #GE2019 Seat Forecasts
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ConstituencyRegionExpected party sharesChanges with 2017 electionWin chance (if election held today)2017NowcastHold chance
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CONLABLDMUKPGRNBRXSNPPCYOTHCONLABLDMUKPGRNBRXSNPPCYOTHCONLABLDMUKPGRNBRXSNPPCYOTH
3
Berwick-upon-TweedNorth East England55.0%19.2%21.8%0.0%4.1%0.0%0.0%2.5%-5.4%0.7%0.0%2.2%0.0%0.0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
4
Bishop AucklandNorth East England44.9%41.8%6.8%0.0%0.0%6.1%0.4%-2.0%-6.2%4.1%0.0%0.0%6.1%-1.9%60%40%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean CON40%
5
BlaydonNorth East England26.2%48.8%9.6%0.0%2.7%11.8%0.8%-1.9%-7.3%0.6%-5.1%1.5%11.8%0.4%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
6
Blyth ValleyNorth East England36.4%45.0%8.9%0.0%3.4%6.2%0.0%-0.9%-10.9%4.4%0.0%1.2%6.2%0.0%23%77%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB77%
7
City of DurhamNorth East England29.6%46.5%12.3%0.0%3.2%8.0%0.4%-0.2%-8.9%2.4%-2.3%1.6%8.0%-0.5%5%95%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB95%
8
DarlingtonNorth East England42.4%40.6%5.6%0.0%2.5%9.0%0.0%-0.9%-10.0%3.3%-2.6%1.3%9.0%0.0%56%44%0%0%0%0%0%LABTossup44%
9
EasingtonNorth East England23.0%49.6%5.6%0.0%0.0%14.9%6.9%0.3%-14.1%4.3%-4.7%-1.1%14.9%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
10
GatesheadNorth East England30.3%55.7%9.9%0.0%4.2%0.0%0.0%6.3%-9.4%5.8%-5.4%2.7%0.0%0.0%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
11
HartlepoolNorth East England34.5%43.8%4.7%0.0%0.0%17.0%0.0%0.3%-8.7%2.9%-11.5%0.0%17.0%0.0%20%80%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB80%
12
HexhamNorth East England55.7%28.2%11.7%0.0%4.4%0.0%0.0%1.7%-5.9%4.6%-2.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
13
Houghton and Sunderland SouthNorth East England29.9%44.7%5.9%2.1%3.3%13.7%0.4%0.2%-14.8%3.7%-3.6%1.6%13.7%-0.8%7%93%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB93%
14
JarrowNorth East England23.6%53.1%6.5%0.0%3.1%13.7%0.0%-1.4%-12.0%3.8%-5.4%1.4%13.7%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
15
MiddlesbroughNorth East England25.7%51.8%4.8%0.0%2.5%13.0%2.2%-1.1%-13.9%3.8%-4.1%1.8%13.0%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
16
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
North East England51.6%40.2%6.6%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%2.0%-7.3%3.7%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%82%18%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON82%
17
Newcastle upon Tyne CentralNorth East England23.7%52.7%9.1%0.0%3.4%11.1%0.0%-0.9%-12.2%4.2%-4.0%1.8%11.1%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
18
Newcastle upon Tyne EastNorth East England22.9%63.5%10.0%0.0%3.6%0.0%0.0%1.7%-4.1%3.8%-3.2%1.7%0.0%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
19
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East England34.0%44.4%8.0%0.0%2.6%10.7%0.4%0.1%-11.0%2.7%-3.7%1.5%10.7%-0.3%17%83%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB83%
20
North DurhamNorth East England29.3%48.2%7.7%0.0%1.8%13.0%0.0%-0.7%-11.7%3.1%-5.6%1.8%13.0%0.0%3%97%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB97%
21
North TynesideNorth East England26.6%51.2%7.0%0.0%2.9%12.3%0.0%-0.7%-13.3%4.2%-4.0%1.7%12.3%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
22
North West DurhamNorth East England32.2%46.7%8.3%0.0%2.4%10.5%0.0%-2.3%-6.1%1.2%-4.5%1.3%10.5%0.0%9%91%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB91%
23
RedcarNorth East England32.3%44.3%8.6%0.0%1.8%13.1%0.0%-1.0%-11.2%1.9%-4.6%1.8%13.1%0.0%13%87%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB87%
24
SedgefieldNorth East England37.3%43.9%5.2%0.0%2.7%11.0%0.0%-1.6%-9.5%3.2%-4.2%1.0%11.0%0.0%28%72%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB72%
25
South ShieldsNorth East England26.7%48.0%5.3%0.0%4.8%15.2%0.0%0.8%-13.5%3.6%-7.4%1.3%15.2%0.0%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
26
Stockton NorthNorth East England36.8%44.3%5.1%0.0%0.0%13.8%0.0%0.3%-12.5%3.6%-4.3%-0.8%13.8%0.0%25%75%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB75%
27
Stockton SouthNorth East England43.6%42.8%5.0%0.0%0.0%8.6%0.0%-3.3%-5.7%3.3%-2.2%-0.7%8.6%0.0%52%48%0%0%0%0%0%LABTossup48%
28
Sunderland CentralNorth East England33.9%42.6%7.5%0.0%3.1%11.9%1.1%0.5%-13.0%3.6%-4.9%1.5%11.9%0.4%22%78%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB78%
29
TynemouthNorth East England34.8%47.1%7.0%0.0%2.6%8.1%0.4%-1.6%-9.9%3.9%-2.2%1.5%8.1%0.2%13%87%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB87%
30
WansbeckNorth East England32.8%45.1%8.2%0.0%3.1%10.8%0.0%0.1%-12.3%3.4%-3.5%1.4%10.8%0.0%13%87%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB87%
31
Washington and Sunderland WestNorth East England27.8%47.1%6.1%2.2%2.9%13.9%0.0%-1.0%-13.6%3.7%-4.6%1.6%13.9%0.0%2%98%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB98%
32
Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West England51.2%31.9%12.4%0.0%3.5%0.0%1.0%0.1%-7.0%4.8%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.4%96%4%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON96%
33
Ashton-under-LyneNorth West England31.6%47.8%5.2%0.0%2.8%12.6%0.0%-0.4%-12.5%3.5%-4.7%1.5%12.6%0.0%6%94%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB94%
34
Barrow and FurnessNorth West England45.7%37.9%6.0%0.0%2.1%8.3%0.0%-1.3%-9.6%3.3%-2.0%1.3%8.3%0.0%74%26%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean CON26%
35
BirkenheadNorth West England19.1%58.8%8.9%0.0%4.4%5.8%3.0%0.7%-18.1%6.3%0.0%2.3%5.8%3.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
36
BlackburnNorth West England25.4%58.2%6.0%0.0%2.2%6.0%2.2%-1.5%-11.6%4.5%0.0%2.2%6.0%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
37
Blackley and BroughtonNorth West England21.9%55.9%6.1%0.0%3.4%12.4%0.4%0.3%-14.6%4.2%-4.5%2.2%12.4%-0.1%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
38
Blackpool North and CleveleysNorth West England51.6%40.0%5.7%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%2.2%-4.5%3.9%-3.4%1.7%0.0%0.0%83%17%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON83%
39
Blackpool SouthNorth West England40.6%40.9%4.4%0.0%2.2%11.9%0.0%-2.5%-9.4%2.6%-3.8%1.2%11.9%0.0%49%51%0%0%0%0%0%LABTossup51%
40
Bolton North EastNorth West England40.0%42.3%5.8%0.0%2.1%9.8%0.0%-2.2%-8.4%2.9%-3.5%1.3%9.8%0.0%42%58%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB58%
41
Bolton South EastNorth West England30.5%46.1%5.7%0.0%3.1%14.6%0.0%0.9%-14.6%3.9%-6.6%1.8%14.6%0.0%7%93%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB93%
42
Bolton WestNorth West England49.8%42.4%6.3%0.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%1.9%-3.7%3.4%-3.1%1.5%0.0%0.0%73%27%0%0%0%0%0%CONLean CON73%
43
BootleNorth West England12.5%68.4%8.0%0.0%4.3%6.5%0.4%0.5%-15.7%6.3%0.0%2.9%6.5%-0.5%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
44
BurnleyNorth West England31.0%38.1%13.6%0.0%2.7%14.5%0.0%0.0%-8.6%-1.4%-6.1%1.5%14.5%0.0%25%75%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB75%
45
Bury NorthNorth West England40.7%46.9%5.5%0.0%1.7%5.3%0.0%-3.8%-6.7%3.6%0.0%1.7%5.3%0.0%30%70%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB70%
46
Bury SouthNorth West England40.9%42.1%5.5%0.0%1.7%9.0%0.9%-0.7%-11.2%3.4%-2.6%1.7%9.0%0.4%46%54%0%0%0%0%0%LABTossup54%
47
CarlisleNorth West England50.8%40.7%6.8%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%-3.1%3.9%-1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%79%21%0%0%0%0%0%CONLean CON79%
48
CheadleNorth West England46.3%18.3%35.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%-0.8%-1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82%0%18%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON82%
49
ChorleyNorth West England100%LABSafe SPK0%
50
City of ChesterNorth West England38.0%47.9%7.6%0.0%1.8%4.8%0.0%-2.5%-8.9%4.8%0.0%1.8%4.8%0.0%19%81%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB81%
51
CongletonNorth West England58.4%28.5%9.6%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.0%1.8%-5.6%4.4%-2.3%1.7%0.0%0.0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
52
CopelandNorth West England50.3%41.3%6.8%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%1.2%-3.9%3.6%-2.5%1.6%0.0%0.0%77%23%0%0%0%0%0%CONLean CON77%
53
Crewe and NantwichNorth West England43.0%40.5%5.1%0.0%1.3%10.0%0.0%-4.0%-6.6%2.7%-3.4%1.3%10.0%0.0%58%42%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean CON42%
54
Denton and ReddishNorth West England26.6%51.6%5.4%0.0%2.7%12.8%0.9%-1.4%-12.0%3.2%-4.5%1.5%12.8%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
55
EddisburyNorth West England54.1%27.9%12.7%1.7%3.3%0.0%0.4%-2.8%-5.7%7.2%-0.5%1.7%0.0%0.1%99%1%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON99%
56
Ellesmere Port and NestonNorth West England35.5%47.6%5.8%0.0%2.4%8.6%0.0%-1.3%-11.5%4.1%-1.6%1.8%8.6%0.0%14%86%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB86%
57
FyldeNorth West England58.8%26.9%10.0%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%-6.5%4.9%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
58
Garston and HalewoodNorth West England17.6%64.3%9.2%0.0%3.7%5.2%0.0%0.0%-13.4%6.0%0.0%2.3%5.2%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
59
HaltonNorth West England20.9%59.8%5.8%0.0%2.1%11.1%0.4%-0.7%-13.2%4.0%-3.0%2.1%11.1%-0.2%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
60
Hazel GroveNorth West England50.0%19.9%30.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.6%-0.6%-2.8%0.0%-1.2%0.0%0.0%96%0%4%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON96%
61
Heywood and MiddletonNorth West England37.9%41.3%5.4%0.0%1.7%13.7%0.0%-0.2%-12.0%3.3%-6.5%1.7%13.7%0.0%38%62%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB62%
62
HyndburnNorth West England39.7%41.0%4.8%0.0%1.6%12.9%0.0%-0.8%-12.4%3.0%-4.3%1.6%12.9%0.0%46%54%0%0%0%0%0%LABTossup54%
63
KnowsleyNorth West England9.5%69.4%7.6%0.0%3.7%9.9%0.0%0.2%-16.0%5.5%-2.3%2.7%9.9%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
64
Lancaster and FleetwoodNorth West England38.5%46.5%6.9%0.0%3.1%5.0%0.0%-2.1%-8.6%4.3%0.0%1.3%5.0%0.0%25%75%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB75%
65
LeighNorth West England33.4%46.7%5.2%1.8%0.0%13.0%0.0%-2.5%-9.5%3.2%-4.2%0.0%13.0%0.0%11%89%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB89%
66
Liverpool, RiversideNorth West England10.4%69.6%9.1%0.0%5.7%5.2%0.0%0.7%-14.9%6.6%0.0%2.4%5.2%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
67
Liverpool, WaltonNorth West England9.4%74.2%8.5%0.0%4.6%0.0%3.2%0.8%-11.5%7.0%0.0%3.4%0.0%0.2%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
68
Liverpool, WavertreeNorth West England12.2%65.5%12.6%0.0%4.0%4.9%0.9%0.2%-14.1%6.0%0.0%2.6%4.9%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
69
Liverpool, West DerbyNorth West England10.8%63.9%8.6%0.0%4.3%6.3%6.1%1.0%-18.8%7.4%0.0%3.5%6.3%0.6%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
70
MacclesfieldNorth West England53.4%30.9%11.5%0.0%3.9%0.0%0.4%0.7%-5.9%5.3%0.0%1.7%0.0%-1.7%98%2%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON98%
71
MakerfieldNorth West England32.2%48.4%8.5%0.0%2.3%8.2%0.4%0.9%-11.8%5.6%0.0%2.3%8.2%-5.3%6%94%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB94%
72
Manchester CentralNorth West England15.3%63.3%8.4%0.0%3.6%8.6%0.8%1.1%-14.1%5.0%-3.0%1.9%8.6%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
73
Manchester, GortonNorth West England8.0%71.3%9.4%0.0%3.8%7.1%0.4%0.7%-5.0%3.7%-2.1%1.6%7.1%-6.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
74
Manchester, WithingtonNorth West England8.6%68.5%15.7%0.0%2.7%4.0%0.4%-1.7%-3.1%-0.2%0.0%1.1%4.0%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
75
Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West England49.2%40.2%7.8%0.0%2.8%0.0%0.0%1.5%-4.5%4.1%-2.9%1.7%0.0%0.0%77%23%0%0%0%0%0%CONLean CON77%
76
Oldham East and SaddleworthNorth West England37.7%41.4%7.2%0.0%1.8%12.0%0.0%0.6%-13.1%3.6%-4.8%1.8%12.0%0.0%37%63%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB63%
77
Oldham West and RoytonNorth West England26.6%50.1%6.2%2.0%3.0%12.2%0.0%-1.1%-15.1%4.1%-2.2%2.1%12.2%0.0%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
78
PendleNorth West England47.9%40.2%7.0%0.0%2.8%0.0%2.1%-1.2%-5.9%4.9%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.5%73%27%0%0%0%0%0%CONLean CON73%
79
Penrith and The BorderNorth West England62.6%20.6%11.3%0.0%4.2%0.0%1.4%2.2%-5.6%3.5%-2.5%1.9%0.0%0.5%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
80
PrestonNorth West England22.2%56.6%7.0%0.0%2.8%11.4%0.0%-1.6%-11.4%3.6%-3.8%1.9%11.4%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
81
Ribble ValleyNorth West England59.6%26.8%9.9%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.0%1.8%-7.1%4.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
82
RochdaleNorth West England26.7%50.9%9.5%0.0%1.8%10.7%0.4%-1.7%-7.1%1.4%-3.3%1.8%10.7%-1.9%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
83
Rossendale and DarwenNorth West England50.1%39.0%7.6%0.0%3.3%0.0%0.0%-0.8%-5.4%4.5%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%82%18%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON82%
84
Salford and EcclesNorth West England24.2%53.0%7.1%0.0%3.4%12.4%0.0%-1.1%-12.5%4.4%-4.9%1.7%12.4%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
85
Sefton CentralNorth West England32.4%51.9%7.8%0.0%2.9%4.9%0.0%-0.7%-11.1%5.2%0.0%1.7%4.9%0.0%3%97%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB97%
86
South RibbleNorth West England53.5%36.6%7.4%0.0%2.2%0.0%0.4%0.6%-2.8%3.6%-2.5%1.3%0.0%-0.2%92%8%0%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON92%
87
SouthportNorth West England47.1%26.2%26.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.5%-6.3%0.2%-2.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%95%2%3%0%0%0%0%CONLikely CON95%
88
St Helens NorthNorth West England26.1%50.5%7.0%0.0%3.9%12.5%0.0%-0.9%-13.3%4.4%-4.2%1.5%12.5%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
89
St Helens South and WhistonNorth West England21.4%55.0%8.0%0.0%4.1%11.5%0.0%-0.4%-12.9%4.1%-3.7%1.4%11.5%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
90
Stalybridge and HydeNorth West England37.8%45.6%6.8%0.0%3.5%6.3%0.0%-0.3%-11.5%4.4%0.0%1.2%6.3%0.0%25%75%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB75%
91
StockportNorth West England28.2%51.2%8.7%0.0%3.1%8.9%0.0%-0.3%-12.1%4.4%-2.6%1.7%8.9%0.0%1%99%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB99%
92
Stretford and UrmstonNorth West England26.9%54.1%6.5%0.0%3.0%8.9%0.6%-0.6%-12.7%4.5%-2.2%1.7%8.9%0.4%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
93
TattonNorth West England63.6%19.6%12.7%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.4%5.0%-8.8%3.7%0.0%1.6%0.0%-1.5%100%0%0%0%0%0%0%CONSafe CON100%
94
WallaseyNorth West England22.2%58.7%6.3%0.0%3.3%9.5%0.0%-1.0%-12.8%4.7%-2.4%2.0%9.5%0.0%0%100%0%0%0%0%0%LABSafe LAB100%
95
Warrington NorthNorth West England36.0%44.4%6.2%0.0%2.7%10.8%0.0%-0.7%-12.0%3.7%-3.2%1.4%10.8%0.0%23%77%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB77%
96
Warrington SouthNorth West England40.5%44.2%8.3%0.0%0.0%4.7%2.3%-3.8%-4.2%2.9%0.0%0.0%4.7%0.3%38%62%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB62%
97
Weaver ValeNorth West England39.9%45.8%6.9%0.0%2.6%4.8%0.0%-3.8%-5.7%3.7%0.0%1.1%4.8%0.0%31%69%0%0%0%0%0%LABLean LAB69%
98
West LancashireNorth West England36.4%48.5%6.4%0.0%2.9%5.5%0.4%-1.0%-10.4%4.5%0.0%1.6%5.5%-0.1%14%86%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB86%
99
Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West England43.2%7.4%44.5%0.0%0.0%4.4%0.4%-1.1%-1.8%-1.3%0.0%0.0%4.4%-0.2%46%0%54%0%0%0%0%LDMTossup54%
100
WiganNorth West England29.1%46.4%6.2%0.0%3.2%15.0%0.0%0.6%-15.8%4.3%-5.8%1.7%15.0%0.0%4%96%0%0%0%0%0%LABLikely LAB96%
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