2018 Election
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According to fivethirtyeight.com, the Democrats were favored to win a majority of seats if they won the popular vote by at least 5.6 points
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https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
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https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls
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2018 NEPParty IDRepubDemOtherIncr DemParty ID Nov11NEP
Generic Model
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Republicans33%94%6%028%33%2016Census
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Democrats37%4%95%1%31%37%Total registered157,596
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Independents
30%42%54%4%41%30%Total voted 137,537
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Total100%45.10%53.33%1.57%Voted/Reg87.27%
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Calc111,478,88550,276,97759,451,6891,750,218
2014 Turnout
36.70%
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Popular vote111,835,73650,449,31259,379,8042,006,620
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Percentage45.10%53.10%1.80%
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House 201234
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Generic Vote Forecast
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GenericParty-IDRepDemOther
Turnout/Reg %
Turnout
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Rep33%94%6%0%71%36,925
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Dem37%4%95%1%71%41,400
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Ind30%42%53.2%5%71%33,568
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Total100%45.10%53.10%1.80%71.0%
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50,46459,4142,015Votes 111,893
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Turnout scenarios
TurnoutTurnoutTurnoutEstimated
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RepDem IndTotalRepDemTotal TurnoutRepDemIndDemMarginDemSeats
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71%71%71%71.0%45.1%53.1%111,89336,92541,40033,5688.0%235
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72%70%72%71.3%45.5%52.7%112,30337,44540,81734,0417.1%228
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73%69%73%71.5%46.0%52.2%112,71337,96540,23434,5146.3%221
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74%68%74%71.8%46.4%51.8%113,12238,48539,65134,9865.4%214
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75%67%75%72.0%46.8%51.4%113,53239,00539,06835,4594.6%207
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76%66%76%72.3%47.2%51.0%113,94239,52538,48535,9323.8%200
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77%65%77%72.6%47.6%50.5%114,35240,04537,90236,4052.9%192
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64%73%70%69.1%43.04%55.12%108,94633,28442,56733,09512.08%
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91.40%41.90%49.50%
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2party45.84%54.16%
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2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios
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Given: Gallup voter preference 28R-27D-43I
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Assume 45% Dem Turnout,40% Rep, 40% Ind
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Generic vote is tied at 48%
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GOP usually does better than Generic Poll
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They have a 241-194 average margin in the House since 2010. Blue wave in 2018?
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Generic Poll % ......RCP % ... House
Generic PollRCPHouseRep HouseRepRepDem House
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........ Dem Rep . Dem Rep . Dem Rep
DemRepDemRepDemRepRep pollMargin Poll
Margin House
Dem poll
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2016 46.0 45.4 .. 48.0 49.1 .. 194 241
20164645.44849.11942415.31-0.6474.22
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2014 43.2 45.6 .. 45.2 51.4 .. 188 247
201443.245.645.251.41882475.422.4594.35
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2012 47.3 47.5 .. 49.2 48.0 .. 201 234
201247.347.549.2482012344.930.2334.25
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2010 41.3 50.7 .. 44.8 51.6 .. 193 242
Average45.546.247.549.5194.3240.75.20.746.34.3
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avg. 44.4 47.3 .. 46.8 50.0 .. 194 241
201041.350.744.851.61932424.779.4494.67
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What-if
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
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PollDateSampleDemocrats (D)
Republicans (R)
DiffUndec Alloc0.6
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https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/10/how_trump_made_gop_control_more_likely_postnovember.html
to Repto Dem
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RCP Average10/1 - 10/16--48.741.17.647.2252.78
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Generic PollRCP AverageRasmussenFOX News10/13 - 10/16841 LV4942747.452.6
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PctRepDemRepDemUndec
Economist/YouGov
10/14 - 10/161273 RV4641548.851.2
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South (WaPo)31%48.0%43.0%48.0%43.0%9.0%
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Other U.S69%38.0%51.0%40.7%47.4%11.9%
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Total100%41.1%48.5%43.0%46.0%11.0%
Rasmussen Reports
10/7 - 10/112500 LV4544150.649.4
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Undec>Rep60%47.3%52.7%49.6%50.4%CNBC10/4 - 10/7800 A4236649.250.8
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Emerson10/1 - 10/41000 RV5042846.853.2
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NPR/PBS/Marist10/1 - 10/1996 RV4842648.052.0
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Average646.6741.175.5048.4751.53
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Reuters 10-31
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PctDemRepReuters/Ipsos10/10 - 10/161194 LV51401145.454.6
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Dem63647.39%93%7%
ABC News/Wash Post
10/8 - 10/11991 RV53421145.055.0
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Rep59144.04%9%91%CNN10/4 - 10/7739 LV54411344.056.0
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other1158.57%38%22%38%22%
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Total1,342100.00%51%45%
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49%42%
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https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sodq3s3gan/econTabReport.pdf
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Trump approvalpg 105PollDateSampleDemocrats (D)
Republicans (R)
Spread
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YouGovSampleParty IDApprovalEst. ActualRCP Average10/8 - 10/23--49.541.97.6
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Rep35423.6%84.0%91.0%Economist/YouGov10/21 - 10/231233 RV47416
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Dem52434.9%9.0%9.0%NPR/PBS/Marist10/21 - 10/23738 RV504010
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Ind/Other62241.5%35.0%47.0%Reuters/Ipsos10/17 - 10/232062 LV49427
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Total1,500100.0%37%44%USA Today/Suffolk10/18 - 10/221000 LV51438
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Actual44.0%Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/182500 LV47443
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NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl10/14 - 10/17645 LV50419
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FOX News10/13 - 10/16841 LV49427
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ABC News/Wash Post10/8 - 10/11991 RV534211
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Average49.541.9
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10-29
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_1810301732.pdf
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