ABCDEFGHIJKLMN
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Model 1
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AssumesTeam 1 Locks:75.00%
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- Team 1 Always AttemptsTeam 2 Locks:25.00%
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- Team 2 Always Attempts
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0.5ProbProbabilities
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Team 1 Claims-------------------->Team 1 Locks0.5Challenge Success Prob
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|0.5
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|0.50.5ProbTeam 1 Attempting Challenge Prob
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\-------------------->Team 1 Fails-------------------->Team 2 Locks0.250.5
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|Team 2 Attempting Challenge Prob
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|0.5Prob0.5
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|
|
\		-------------------->Team 2 Fails
(AKA team 1
Locks)		0.25
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Interesting Notes
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- Team 2 failing is the same as Team 1 Locking
- The probability of teams not contesting one of each other's countries is the blue box
- You could make a 3d plane of the probabilities of each team getting the claim (and I might it I have too much time)
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Model 2
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AssumesTeam 1 Locks:0.4375
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- Team 1 has Attempting ProbTeam 1 Never Challenged:0.375
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- Team 2 has Attempting ProbTeam 2 Locks:0.1875
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0.50.5Prob
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Team 1 Claims-------------------->Team 1 Tries-------------------->Team 1 Locks0.25Outcome 1
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||
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||
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||0.50.50.5Prob
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|\-------------------->Team 1 Fails-------------------->Team 2 Tries-------------------------------------------------------------->Team 2 Locks0.0625
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|||Outcome 2
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|||
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||0.5Prob|0.5Prob
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|\-------------------->Team 2 Ignores0.125\-------------------->Team 2 Fails0.0625
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|Outcome 3Outcome 4
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|
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|0.50.50.5Prob
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\-------------------->Team 1 Leaves-------------------->Team 2 Tries-------------------------------------------------------------->Team 2 Locks0.125
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||Outcome 5
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||
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|0.5Prob|0.5Prob
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\-------------------->Team 2 Ignores0.25\-------------------->Team 2 Fails0.125
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Outcome 6Outcome 7