2017 nfl draft qb clutch stats basic.xlsx
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This is a deep statistical evaluation of all college QBs between 2008-16, highlighting 2017 NFL draft prospects to compare to their predecessors in my 3 key clutch categories of THIRD DOWN, RED ZONE, and when TRAILING by a TD or less. It evaluates PASSING ONLY. This is in no way the end all, be all, but it can be used to spot trends that could prove useful in a QBs overall evaluation. To me, being clutch is one of, if not the most important characteristic of a successful QB, especially as a passer, and it's impossible to teach - you either have it or you don't.
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While all stats and some deeper formulas are available here, the key results are derived from one key stat, NCAA Passing Efficiency Rating, which factors the key components of completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions per attempt. The college formula is a bit wild, as there are no limits imposed on any of those 4 components, but I also calculated NFL QB rating within the database.
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The final "score" (CLUTCH AVG+) is the average of the QB's overall rating converted to a 0-10 scale, then their rating on a 0-10 scale vs the average of all qualifying QBs and their rating vs their own overall average (to see if they improve or decline vs their average) in my 3 key "clutch" situational categories of third down, red zone, and trailing by 1-7.
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there is a lot more yet to break down and color code in this sheet and the formula is constantly evolving, so stay tuned!
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COMMENTS are ALLOWED, so I'd love to hear from you
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If you think my work here is deserving, please share! Also, be sure to follow me for more work COMING SOON!
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facebook.com/DraftMaverick
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twitter.com/DraftMaverick
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If you'd like to make a donation, you can do so through PayPal to mike@footballiance.com. This takes many, many hours of hard work and I work independently, so any contributions and support is much appreciated!!
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You can also support by purchasing your favorite team's officially licensed merchandise through my affiliate account with Fanatics or tickets to almost any pro or college sporting event or major concert through my affiliate account with TicketCity! You get cool stuff and I get a small cut, win/win :)
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footballiance.com/fanshop
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footballiance.com/tickets
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2/22 update - added a duplicate page sorted by draft class, so you can see how all of this year's prospects compare to each other, as well as how previous classes compared to each other. I will also be working on a tab that will exclusively feature current NFL starters and former 1st round picks drafted from 2009-16.
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Color code key:
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ranks above the 1-10 scale (usually means they did not meet the minimum attempts to officially qualify in that category, therefore are outside of the set range)
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sets the standard (perfect 10) on the 1-10 scale
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9-9.99/10
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7.5-8.99/10
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6-7.49/10
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4-5.99/10
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2.5-3.99/10
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1-2.49/10
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under 1/10
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Situational category qualifiers:
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3rd Down = 50+ passing attempts
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Red Zone = 25+ passing attempts
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Losing by 1-7 = 25+ passing attempts
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My current 2017 QB rankings (updated 4/7) are as follows (I'll be adding player tabs [at bottom] for explanations because it was getting too cluttered here. I'll be adding game logs, situational stats, and video links. Again, comments are welcome)
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1) Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech - mid-late 1st - see Patrick Mahomes II tab for explanation, notes, and more
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2) Deshaun Watson, Clemson - mid-late 1st - see Deshaun Watson tab for explanation
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3) Davis Webb, California (Texas Tech grad transfer) - 3rd - explanation upcoming
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4) Josh Dobbs, Tennessee - 3rd - explanation upcoming
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5) Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina - 3rd - explanation upcoming
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6) Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame - 3rd-4th - explanation upcoming
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7) Nate Peterman, Pittsburgh (Tennessee transfer) - 3rd-4th - explanation upcoming
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t-8) Brad Kaaya, Miami - 5th - explanation upcoming
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t-8) Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech (JUCO transfer) - 5th - explanation upcoming
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NR) Chad Kelly, Mississippi (dismissed from Clemson, JUCO transfer) - UFA - explanation upcoming (injury, significant mental/character flags)
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