2018 Oscar Predictions by Zak Kondratenko
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Best Picture (last updated Oct. 9th)
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Current Predicted Nominees
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Comments? Suggestions? Spot a typo? Feel free to reach out to me on twitter, @ZakKondratenko
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Film:Distributor:Comments:
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Darkest HourFocus FeaturesStrong word across the festival circuit, Oldman the frontrunner in best actor.
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The Florida ProjectA24 FilmsA24 showed they can get smaller films in with Moonlight, Sean Baker's latetst seems to have the DNA of a crowd-pleaser.
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The Shape of WaterFox SearchlightAll the rage at Toronto & Venice, Golden Lion winner, said to be del Toro's best.
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Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MissouriFox SearchlightPeople's Choice winner at Toronto, recent history suggest that means it's a lock here.
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DunkirkWarner BrosNolan overdue narrative + critical acclaim + Oscar friendly subject + major support from tech branches
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Call Me By Your NameSony Pictures ClassicsBeen in the convo since Sundance, a critical darling that played well at Toronto as well.
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StrongerLionsgateOnce looked like Jake Gyllenhaal and nothing else as far as awards prospects go but the reviews are really strong; has played festival circuit well.
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Wonder WheelAmazon StudiosBuzz is HIGH for Woody Allen's latest. It closes NYFF in a couple weeks; we'll know more then. I just have an inkling.
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Top-Tier Contenders
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Film:Distributor:Comments:
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The Post20th Century FoxSpielberg tackling a timely historical story with an Oscar friendly cast in tow (Streep, Hanks), but will it be rushed to make deadline? Too many strong contenders for me to slot it in before we at least see a trailer.
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Blade Runner 2049Warner BrosFirst wave of reviews are exceptional. A great bet with every tech branch and the directors will love it as well. Can it drum up enough support from the actors?
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All the Money in the WorldTri-Star/SonyDebuting in November at AFI Fest. Ridley Scott directs a great cast in a studio film. This year's The Big Short?
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I, TonyaNeonNew distributor, but was a crowd-pleaser at Toronto and will factor into two acting races.
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Battle of the SexesFox SearchlightEmma Stone & Steve Carell, probably gets boost from Trump afffect, but festival reviews were just good not great.
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MudboundNetflixSundance darling will have the critics on its side and is one of few films from people of color in the race this year, but with Netflix, until proven otherwise, hard to bet on it.
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Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson FilmFocus FeaturesAssumes it's done in time, it'll have all the buzz it needs with DDL's last performance and all, but PTA is hit-or-miss with the Academy.
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Coco PixarLooks exceptional and Pixar has gotten in BP before (Up), but the expanded field has not helped animated films.
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Star Wars: The Last JediDisneyThe Force Awakens was really close. If the sequel is better, it campaigns itself. Everyone will see it, obviously.
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The Disaster ArtistA24 FilmsThis generation's Ed Wood played well at Toronto but it's a pure comedy. Can you see Oscar embracing a Rogen/Goldberg/Franco production?
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The Big SickAmazon StudiosBest bet from year's first-half but will they remember this rom-com come voting time? Better bet in screenplay.
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Dark Horses
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Film:Distributor:Comments:
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Wind RiverThe Weinstein CompanyHarvey's gross activites being exposed and confirmed probably eliminated what little chane this film had.
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Last Flag FlyingAmazonMixed reviews for its NYFF premiere. Best chances are probably in acting categoires. But it's a film for old white men, perhaps it'll play better with the Academy.
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The Greatest Showman20th Century FoxMusical period piece starring Hugh Jackman. Complete unknown but if it's good it's certainly something up the Academy's wheelhouse.
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Molly's GameSTX EntertainmentSorkin's directorial debut played well at Toronto and could ride the script/Jessica Chastain to a nom.
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DownsizingParamountCritics did not go for Alexander Payne's latest at festivals but the Academy loves him and perhaps the film will play better with general audience.
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Wonder WomanWarner BrosIt's getting a full push, is very popular, and benefits from girl-power narrative. But is this really the superhero film to finally land with Oscar?
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The 15:17 to ParisWarner BrosIf Clint finishes in time, his films always need to be considered.
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mother!ParamountExtremely divisive, but that is sometimes a good thing in terms of scoring a nomination considering preferential balloting is only used to pikc winners.
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HostilesEntertainment StudiosPlayed well at Telluride and Toronto and was finally picked up for distribution. *eyes emoji*.
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Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design