IRD_Probability of death sense checks (public)

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1	Note: This is an earlier-stage internal document that we are publishing for the sake of transparency about an important part of our research process. Some of the links below may go to internal GiveWell documents.
2	Probability of death from IHME (among all children under 5)
3				New Incentives	IRD
4				Under 5, adjusted for etiological fraction and % after recommended age of vaccination	Under 5, adjusted for etiological fraction and % after recommended age of vaccination	IRD / New Incentives
5	Lower respiratory infections			1.70%	0.70%	0.41
6		Of which S.pneumoniae
7			Lower respiratory infections (S.Pneumoniae)	0.60%	0.19%	0.32
8		Of which HiB
9			Lower respiratory infections (HiB)	0.03%	0.00%	0.00
10	Pneumococcal meningitis			0.08%	0.01%	0.13
11	Whooping cough			0.23%	0.08%	0.35
12	Diphtheria			0.04%	0.00%	0.00
13	Tetanus			0.01%	0.00%	0.00
14	H influenzae type B meningitis			0.01%	0.00%	0.00
15	Measles			0.07%	0.03%	0.43
16	Tuberculosis			0.10%	0.08%	0.80
17	Diarrhea			0.00%	0.00%
18		Of which rotavirus
19			Diarrhea (rotavirus)	0.49%	0.17%	0.35
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21			Probability of death	1.65%	0.56%	0.34
22
23	Vaccination coverage
24				New Incentives	IRD	IRD / New Incentives
25			BCG	64%	87%	1.36
26			DTP1	61%	84%	1.38
27			DTP3	53%	74%	1.40
28			MCV1	51%	75%	1.47
29			HiB3	53%	74%	1.40
30			Rotavirus	0%	29%
31			PCV3	50%	77%	1.54
32			Weighted coverage	50%	77%	1.54
33
34	Vacccine efficacy
35				New Incentives	IRD	IRD / New Incentives
36			BCG vaccine	0.85	0.85	1.00
37			PCV vaccine (3 doses)	0.58	0.58	1.00
38			DTP vaccine (3 doses)	0.84	0.84	1.00
39			HiB vaccine (3 doses)	0.82	0.82	1.00
40			Rotavirus vaccine (2 doses)	0.46	0.50	1.09
41			Measles vaccine (1/2 doses)	0.85	0.90	1.06
42			Weighted vaccine efficacy	0.66	0.71	1.08
43
44	Adjustments for vaccine efficacy
45				New Incentives	IRD	IRD / New Incentives
46			Vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analyses	0.66	0.71	1.08
47			Adjustment for lower vaccine efficacy (includes "biomarkers adjustment")	0.81	0.95	1.17
48			Adjustment for all-cause mortality effect	1.32	1.18	0.89
49			Adjustment for coverage in trials	0.95	0.95	1.00
50			Vaccine efficacy for vaccine-preventable disease from meta-analysis, adjusted	0.74	0.84	1.14
51
52	Deaths from vaccine preventable disease
53				New Incentives	IRD	IRD / New Incentives
54			Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases among vaccinated and unvaccinated children	1.7%	0.6%	0.34
55			Percent vaccinated at time of IHME data in Sindh	50%	77%	1.54
56			Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated	2.6%	1.6%	0.61
57			Upward adjustment for unvaccinated	1.6	2.8	1.78
58			Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated - Assume equal coverage	2.6%	1.0%	0.37
59			Upward adjustment for unvaccinated - Assume equal coverage	1.6	1.7	1.09
60			Probability of death from vaccine-preventable diseases for unvaccinated - Assume equal vaccine efficacy	2.6%	1.3%	0.50
61			Upward adjustment for unvaccinated - Assume equal vaccine efficacy	1.6	2.3	1.46
62
63	Takeaways:
64	- There's an upward adjustment factor of 1.6 from probability of death from IHME to probability of death for unvaccinated specifically for New Incentives and 2.8 for IRD.
65	- This difference is driven almost exclusively by differences in baseline vaccination coverage in Pakistan vs. Nigeria.
66	- These are before adjustments for higher/lower probability of death in specific regions targeted (1.2 for North West Nigeria vs. Nigeria and 0.9-1.2 for different parts of Sindh province in Pakistan).
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