60-Month Growth Model_Revenue Growth and Valuation Creation/Retention
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60-Month Growth Model_Revenue Growth and Valuation Creation/Retention
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Purpose:
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This simple model is meant to help Founders get a sense for:
1) How their annual revenue growth goals translate into monthly growth required,
2) How much capital they may need to hit their revenue goals,
3) How much value they may create by achieving their growth goals and
4) How much value they may retain accounting for the amounts and types of capital utilized for growth.
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Instructions:
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Input cells: bold blue font with yellow highlight
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Output cells: black font
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1) Navigate to File > Make a copy to create your own custom model.
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2) Input your current MRR in cell C20
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3) Input your annual growth goals (as a %) for each of the next 5 years in cells D21-D25
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4) You can play with valuation multiple assumptions in cells G20-G25
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5) You can toggle the debt capital as % of total capital in cell Q17. Changing this variable will change the equity retention outputs in cells Q21-T26
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6) Grab a slot on my (Brian Parks, Bigfoot Capital) calendar If you have questions or want to chat
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7) Read more about the model.
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5 Year Revenue and Valuation Projections
100% Equity40.0% Debt
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Months in Year12
Trailing Month
AnnualRevenueRun-RatePre-Money Pre-MoneyValuationMonthly Growth RequiredCAC SpendCapitalPost-MoneyDilutionEquity Value
Equity Capital
DilutionEquity ValueEquity Value
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DateMRR
Growth Goal %
Run-RateGrowth Multiple
Valuation Multiple
Valuation
Growth Multiple
For YearLifetimeRequiredRequiredValuationTakenRetainedRequiredTakenRetained
Retention Benefit
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Month 07/31/19$100,000 $1,200,000 4.5x$5,400,000
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Month 127/31/20$200,000 100.0%$2,400,000 2.0x4.5x$10,800,000 2.0x5.9%5.9%$666,667 $1,000,000 $11,800,000 8.5%$10,800,000 $600,000 5.3%$11,178,947 $378,947
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Month 247/31/21$350,000 75.0%$4,200,000 1.8x4.9x$20,580,000 1.9x4.8%5.4%$1,000,000 $1,500,000 $22,080,000 6.8%$18,708,814 $900,000 4.2%$19,992,755 $1,283,942
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Month 367/31/22$525,000 50.0%$6,300,000 1.5x5.5x$34,650,000 1.7x3.4%4.7%$1,166,667 $1,750,000 $36,400,000 4.8%$29,092,428 $1,050,000 2.9%$31,888,483 $2,796,054
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Month 487/31/23$735,000 40.0%$8,820,000 1.4x6.0x$52,920,000 1.5x2.8%4.2%$1,400,000 $2,100,000 $55,020,000 3.8%$41,874,324 $1,260,000 2.3%$46,921,133 $5,046,809
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Month 607/31/24$992,250 35.0%$11,907,000 1.4x6.0x$71,442,000 1.4x2.5%3.9%$1,715,000 $2,572,500 $74,014,500 3.5%$53,758,055 $1,543,500 2.1%$61,554,408 $7,796,353
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Total 60 Months9.9x13.2x3.9%$5,948,333 $8,922,500 27.4%$53,758,055 $5,353,500 16.8%$61,554,408 $7,796,353
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Simplified Customer Acquisition Metrics
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ARPU$750
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Gross Margin80.0%
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CAC$5,000
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Gross Profit per Customer$600
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CAC Recovery (# Months)8 months
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60 Month Revenue and Valuation Projections
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Month CountMonth 0Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4Month 5Month 6Month 7Month 8Month 9Month 10Month 11Month 12Month 13Month 14Month 15Month 16Month 17Month 18Month 19Month 20Month 21Month 22Month 23Month 24Month 25Month 26Month 27Month 28Month 29Month 30Month 31Month 32Month 33Month 34Month 35Month 36Month 37Month 38Month 39Month 40Month 41Month 42Month 43Month 44Month 45Month 46Month 47Month 48Month 49Month 50Month 51Month 52Month 53Month 54Month 55Month 56Month 57Month 58Month 59Month 60
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Month7/31/198/31/20199/30/201910/31/201911/30/201912/31/20191/31/20202/29/20203/31/20204/30/20205/31/20206/30/20207/31/20208/31/20209/30/202010/31/202011/30/202012/31/20201/31/20212/28/20213/31/20214/30/20215/31/20216/30/20217/31/20218/31/20219/30/202110/31/202111/30/202112/31/20211/31/20222/28/20223/31/20224/30/20225/31/20226/30/20227/31/20228/31/20229/30/202210/31/202211/30/202212/31/20221/31/20232/28/20233/31/20234/30/20235/31/20236/30/20237/31/20238/31/20239/30/202310/31/202311/30/202312/31/20231/31/20242/29/20243/31/20244/30/20245/31/20246/30/20247/31/2024
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Projected MRR$100,000 $105,946 $112,246 $118,921 $125,992 $133,484 $141,421 $149,831 $158,740 $168,179 $178,180 $188,775 $200,000 $209,548 $219,551 $230,033 $241,014 $252,520 $264,575 $277,206 $290,439 $304,305 $318,832 $334,053 $350,000 $362,028 $374,470 $387,339 $400,650 $414,419 $428,661 $443,392 $458,630 $474,391 $490,694 $507,557 $525,000 $539,929 $555,282 $571,073 $587,312 $604,013 $621,188 $638,853 $657,019 $675,702 $694,917 $714,677 $735,000 $753,613 $772,698 $792,266 $812,329 $832,900 $853,993 $875,619 $897,794 $920,529 $943,841 $967,743 $992,250
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MRR Growth Rate5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
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Projected Run-Rate$1,200,000 $1,271,356 $1,346,954 $1,427,049 $1,511,905 $1,601,808 $1,697,056 $1,797,968 $1,904,881 $2,018,151 $2,138,157 $2,265,298 $2,400,000 $2,514,574 $2,634,618 $2,760,392 $2,892,171 $3,030,240 $3,174,902 $3,326,469 $3,485,271 $3,651,655 $3,825,982 $4,008,631 $4,200,000 $4,344,338 $4,493,635 $4,648,064 $4,807,800 $4,973,025 $5,143,928 $5,320,705 $5,503,557 $5,692,693 $5,888,328 $6,090,687 $6,300,000 $6,479,148 $6,663,390 $6,852,871 $7,047,740 $7,248,151 $7,454,261 $7,666,231 $7,884,229 $8,108,426 $8,338,999 $8,576,128 $8,820,000 $9,043,358 $9,272,373 $9,507,187 $9,747,947 $9,994,805 $10,247,914 $10,507,433 $10,773,524 $11,046,353 $11,326,091 $11,612,914 $11,907,000
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Projected Valuation$5,400,000 $5,721,101 $6,061,295 $6,421,718 $6,803,574 $7,208,135 $7,636,753 $8,090,858 $8,571,966 $9,081,681 $9,621,706 $10,193,843 $10,800,000 $12,321,412 $12,909,626 $13,525,921 $14,171,637 $14,848,178 $15,557,018 $16,299,696 $17,077,830 $17,893,111 $18,747,313 $19,642,294 $20,580,000 $23,893,857 $24,714,995 $25,564,352 $26,442,899 $27,351,638 $28,291,607 $29,263,878 $30,269,563 $31,309,809 $32,385,805 $33,498,778 $34,650,000 $38,874,887 $39,980,339 $41,117,226 $42,286,442 $43,488,906 $44,725,563 $45,997,386 $47,305,375 $48,650,558 $50,033,993 $51,456,767 $52,920,000 $54,260,149 $55,634,236 $57,043,121 $58,487,684 $59,968,830 $61,487,484 $63,044,596 $64,641,141 $66,278,117 $67,956,548 $69,677,483 $71,442,000
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Valuation Growth Rate5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%14.1%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%4.8%16.1%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%3.4%12.2%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
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Projected Gross Profit$80,000 $84,757 $89,797 $95,137 $100,794 $106,787 $113,137 $119,865 $126,992 $134,543 $142,544 $151,020 $160,000 $167,638 $175,641 $184,026 $192,811 $202,016 $211,660 $221,765 $232,351 $243,444 $255,065 $267,242 $280,000 $289,623 $299,576 $309,871 $320,520 $331,535 $342,929 $354,714 $366,904 $379,513 $392,555 $406,046 $420,000 $431,943 $444,226 $456,858 $469,849 $483,210 $496,951 $511,082 $525,615 $540,562 $555,933 $571,742 $588,000 $602,891 $618,158 $633,812 $649,863 $666,320 $683,194 $700,496 $718,235 $736,424 $755,073 $774,194 $793,800
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# Customers Added per Month - Net8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 27 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 33
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CAC Spend$39,642 $41,999 $44,497 $47,143 $49,946 $52,916 $56,062 $59,396 $62,928 $66,670 $70,634 $74,834 $63,652 $66,691 $69,875 $73,210 $76,705 $80,367 $84,204 $88,224 $92,435 $96,848 $101,472 $106,316 $80,188 $82,943 $85,794 $88,742 $91,792 $94,946 $98,209 $101,584 $105,075 $108,686 $112,422 $116,285 $99,527 $102,357 $105,267 $108,261 $111,339 $114,505 $117,761 $121,110 $124,554 $128,096 $131,738 $135,485 $124,088 $127,230 $130,452 $133,756 $137,143 $140,616 $144,177 $147,828 $151,572 $155,410 $159,346 $163,381
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