Existing evidence is flimsy, but it seems plausible that the VAD rate is above the breakeven rate of 18%.

There's a fairly recent VAD survey (2009) with high VAD rates. GBD and survey results are consistent.

National VAD survey result from 2007 puts the program below our bar. However, it's close to the bar and would meet it with full weight on the GBD 2017 VAD rate.

There's a national VAD survey with high VAD rates and the program has buffer above our bar. However, the GBD 2017 VAD estimates are much lower than the survey results.

Close to the funding bar with no VAD survey for reference.

We'd need a huge positive update on VAD for this program to meet our bar, though GBD estimates imply it does. The most recent national survey found a low VAD rate, and we'd have to ~eliminate weight on this result for Kenya to reach 10x. There are some critiques of that survey, but we're unlikely to throw it out entirely.

Disease burden is so high that VAD rate would have to be implausibly low (~10%) to it push below the bar

Disease burden is so high that VAD rate would have to be implausibly low (<10%) to push it below the bar

A plausible negative update would push Moz below the funding bar. Our best guess is close to 10x, and full weight on the GBD estimate would lower cost-effectiveness to 10x. Has a VAD survey, but it's 20 years old.