ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Best GuessUnitExplanationSource
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Cost of Sunscreen10$/literI found cien sun on amazon with around 10$ per liter which I take for cost per liter.
https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Cien-Sun-Lotion-Protection-Cream/dp/B0CFY1TH7S/ref=sr_1_6?crid=1DPCE41HIU6BZ&keywords=cien%2Bsun&qid=1695135934&sprefix=cien%2Bsun%2Caps%2C91&sr=8-6&th=1
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Tax Free FSA Multiplier1Based on Ellie’s comment: US citizens and maybe some others can deduct this from taxes as medical expenditure.
Adjust this accordingly.
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Use average10ml/useI saw that an adult is supposed to use 35 mL for the full body, but usually people apply a quarter to a half only.
Additionally people don’t have to cover their whole body at the festival,
so I calculated 10 ml/use and make deductions at protection for using too little.		https://labmuffin.com/spf-changes-how-much-sunscreen-use/
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Shared as percentage of bottle90%With regular bottle being 250ml and 25 uses you could even see if someone just takes it,
so people probably will pass it on in most cases.
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Units per Dollar9use/$
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Protection %75,00%Given that SPF 30 offers 30 times sun protection and people use 1/3 on average of the recommended dose,
the protection starts at 90% and reduces over time,
but later the sun is lower already so I just assume 75% protection over the day.
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Sunburn Risk without shared sunscreen20%
If people would not get the sunscreen, they most likely would just ask other people later or stay in the shadow instead,
I make the assumption here that almost everyone would get a sunburn with full exposure,
but 60% would get sunscreen from somewhere else or used their own (NunoSempere’s comment),
20% would not ask but lose some enjoyment at the festival for it and 30% don’t think about it or ignore the risk and get sunburned.
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People how stay out of sun more20%
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Prevented sunburns per dose0,15
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Prevented sunburns per dollar1,35p/$
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Duration Sunburn4daysGoogle says 3-5 days
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DW avg0,1Burns on 20-60% of body are 0.44 DW, a sunburn is much less severe and decreases over time, so I assume 0.1 on average.https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/158
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Impact Life Quality Sunburn0,001479452055DALY/$
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Loss of enjoyment from the festival10,00%I expect people also enjoying staying in the shadows and listening to music from afar and
only going out dancing for short times or asking for sunscreen after a while,
but I think that enjoyment would go down a bit from this.
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Festival multiplier2I calculated the festival day as twice standard day value here.
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Impact Life Quality Festival0,0009863013699DALY/$
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LEGACY DALY lost from melanoma death
10
Most deaths occur pretty late in life and I expect most people would weigh their earlier life higher, 10 is a rough estimate on my side.
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LEGACY Fatality rate8,00%Estimation from linkhttps://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/melanoma-skin-cancer/about/key-statistics.html
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Melanoma lifetime risk per sunburn0,05%
Lifetime risk from melanoma in USA is around 2%. Given that 5 or more sunburns double chance compared to people having 0-4 sunburns,
I make a very shaky guess that 20 sunburns mean 1% higher lifetime risk.
https://www.cancer.org/cancer/types/melanoma-skin-cancer/about/key-statistics.html
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DALY Estimate2,5
GBD Data: Melanoma DALY estimate/Melanoma incidence 743,189.18/194,488.79 is their best guess which comes out at 3.8 DALY per case,
but I adjust this downward a bit. They count 3.3 DALY from death per case, with 22 DALY per death.
This seems to me like they don’t discount value of later lief years which I would personally do,
especially as the likelihood late in life goes up of having other sources detrimental to life quality.
I adjust this downwards to 15 DALY per death, coming out at ~2 DALY per case from death and 0.5 from non-deaths.
This estimate replaces the previous estimate from me, credit for bringing this great data source up to Stan Pinsent.
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-results/
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Impact Cancer (only Melanoma)0,0016875DALY/$
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Total Impact0,004153253425DALY/$
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Inverted240,7750979$/DALY
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