ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Assumptions & Drivers
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-4-3-2-101 2 3 4 5
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All figures in USD millions unless statedFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
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Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
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Income Statement
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Revenue Drivers:
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Total Customers(Count)4139594478289437111591294414757165271818019635
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Customer Growth Rate (%) – 43.6% 31.7% 20.6% 18.2% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0%
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Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)$0.140.210.260.300.320.350.370.390.410.43
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ARPU Growth Rate (%) – 43.4% 28.6% 12.7% 9.3% 8.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.0%
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Sales Growth – 106.0% 69.4% 35.9% 29.2% 25.9% 20.8% 18.2% 15.5% 12.3%
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Cost of Revenue (% of Sales) 41.0% 37.6% 34.7% 32.0% 33.5% 29.6% 27.5% 25.5% 23.4% 21.4%
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Gross Margin 59.0% 62.4% 65.3% 68.0% 66.5% 70.4% 72.5% 74.5% 76.6% 78.6%
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Sales and Marketing (% of Sales) 81.0% 61.0% 53.6% 49.6% 46.1% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0%
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General and Administration (% of Sales) 29.8% 21.7% 14.3% 11.5% 11.4% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
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Research and Development (% of Sales) 40.2% 38.3% 38.2% 45.9% 49.2% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
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EBIT Margin(91.9%)(58.6%)(40.8%)(39.0%)(40.2%)(33.6%)(31.5%)(29.5%)(27.4%)(25.4%)
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EBITDA Margin(90.2%)(56.9%)(37.7%)(34.7%)(35.1%)(29.5%)(28.0%)(26.5%)(25.0%)(23.4%)
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Interest Income Rate – 0.2% 1.4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
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Tax Rate (% of EBT)(0.4%)(0.4%) 2.3% 1.3% (0.3%) 0.5% 1.5% 5.0% 10.0% 25.0%
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Net Loss Margin(91.1%)(55.8%)(38.6%)(29.9%)(35.6%)(29.4%)(27.5%)(24.9%)(22.0%)(16.9%)
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WASO YoY Growth – 112.0% 6.1% 2.9% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
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Depreciation and Amortization (% of Gross PP&E) 12.1% 16.7% 30.6% 37.2% 40.6% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0%
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Cash Flow Statement
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Capex (% of Sales) 6.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
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Stock Based Compensation - Capitalized (% of Sales) 50.9% 49.6% 41.7% 41.6% 40.8% 36.5% 33.6% 30.8% 28.0% 25.2%
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Other Non Cash Adjustments (% of Sales) 12.8% 7.8% 6.2% 0.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
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Common Stock Repurchase (% of Sales) – – – 21.1% 53.3% 50.0% 45.0% 37.0% 30.0% 23.0%
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Shares Exercised(Count) 13,799 20,903 6,118 8,355 6,593 6,725 6,859 6,997 7,136 7,279
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Strike Price$ 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
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Balance Sheet
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Receivable Days (Sales Basis)(Days) 181 163 126 121 93 90 90 90 90 90
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Payable Days (COGS Basis)(Days) 8 11 12 21 51 60 60 60 60 60
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ROU Asset (% of Sales) 31.6% 15.6% 11.2% 9.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9%
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Deferred Commission (% of Sales) 20.0% 14.4% 10.3% 9.7% 7.8% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
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Deferred Revenue (% of Sales) 108.6% 95.9% 81.6% 78.9% 71.6% 65.0% 60.0% 58.0% 54.0% 50.0%
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Cash & Investments Drivers:
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Cash Buffer Days(Days) 335 269 157 214 248 206 206 206 206 206
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Required Cash Buffer$ 820.18 1,085.73 939.90 1,762.75 2,628.80 2,683.23 3,242.41 3,831.24 4,425.08 4,970.25
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Average Investment Base$ – 5,090.82 5,094.60 4,921.72 5,028.35 5,501.17 5,829.71 6,155.49 6,508.84 6,867.55
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Capital Structure Drivers:
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ECA (Non-Capitalized) (% of Sales) 51.3% 51.7% 43.1% 43.3% 41.6% 40.0% 37.0% 35.0% 33.0% 30.0%
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ESA (% of ECA) 19.5% 28.4% 9.1% 9.7% 8.1% 7.0% 5.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0%
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Reissuance of Treasury Stock (% of ECA) – – – 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
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Income Statement
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All figures in USD millions unless statedFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
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Revenues592.051,219.332,065.662,806.493,626.404,564.185,515.366,516.957,527.078,454.41
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Cost of Revenue(242.59)(458.43)(717.54)(898.56)(1,214.67)(1,351.12)(1,519.42)(1,661.50)(1,764.44)(1,808.19)
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Gross Profit 349.46 760.891,348.121,907.932,411.723,213.063,995.944,855.445,762.636,646.22
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Sales and Marketing(479.32)(743.97)(1,106.51)(1,391.75)(1,672.09)(1,962.60)(2,371.60)(2,802.29)(3,236.64)(3,635.40)
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Research and Development(237.95)(466.93)(788.06)(1,287.95)(1,783.38)(2,282.09)(2,757.68)(3,258.47)(3,763.54)(4,227.20)
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General and Administration(176.14)(265.03)(295.82)(323.01)(412.26)(502.06)(606.69)(716.86)(827.98)(929.98)
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EBIT (Operating Profit)(543.94)(715.04)(842.27)(1,094.77)(1,456.01)(1,533.69)(1,740.04)(1,922.18)(2,065.53)(2,146.36)
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Interest Income 7.51 9.1373.84200.66209.01220.05233.19246.22260.35274.70
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Interest Expenses9 – – – – (2.76) – – – – –
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Other Income (Expense)(0.61)28.95(47.57)44.89(35.34)(35.34)(35.34)(35.34)(35.34)(35.34)
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Earnings Before Taxes (EBT)(537.04)(676.96)(815.99)(849.22)(1,285.10)(1,348.98)(1,542.19)(1,711.30)(1,840.51)(1,907.00)
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Taxes(2.06)(2.99)18.4711.23(4.11)6.7423.1385.56184.05476.75
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Net Loss/Profit(539.10)(679.95)(797.53)(837.99)(1,289.21)(1,342.24)(1,519.05)(1,625.73)(1,656.46)(1,430.25)
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Net Loss Attributable to NCI – – (0.82)(1.89)(3.57) – – – – –
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Net loss/Profit attributable to Snowflake Inc. (539.10)(679.95)(796.71)(836.10)(1,285.64)(1,342.24)(1,519.05)(1,625.73)(1,656.46)(1,430.25)
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Depreciation And Amortization(9.83)(21.50)(63.54)(119.90)(182.51)(189.39)(195.43)(195.44)(186.46)(165.21)
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EBITDA(534.11)(693.54)(778.73)(974.87)(1,273.50)(1,344.30)(1,544.61)(1,726.74)(1,879.07)(1,981.15)
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Weighted Average Shares Outstanding (WASO) 141.61 300.27 318.73 328.00 332.71 339.36 356.37 373.72 391.42 409.47
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EPS(3.81)(2.26)(2.50)(2.55)(3.86)(3.96)(4.26)(4.35)(4.23)(3.49)
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Balance Sheet
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All figures in USD millions unless statedFY2021AFY2022AFY2023AFY2024AFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028EFY2029EFY2030E
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ASSETS
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Cash and Equivalents 820.18 1,085.73 939.90 1,762.75 2,628.80 3,042.83 3,285.89 3,694.39 3,992.58 4,411.81
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Trade and Other Receivables 294.02 545.63 715.82 926.90 922.81 1,125.41 1,359.95 1,606.92 1,855.99 2,084.65
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Short-term Investments 3,087.89 2,766.36 3,067.97 2,083.50 2,008.87 2,008.87 2,008.87 2,008.87 2,008.87 2,008.87
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Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets 66.20 149.52 193.10 180.02 211.23 211.23 211.23 211.23 211.23 211.23
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Total Current Assets 4,268.28 4,547.25 4,916.79 4,953.17 5,771.71 6,388.36 6,865.95 7,521.42 8,068.68 8,716.57
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Property Plant and Equipment 68.97 105.08 160.82 247.46 296.39 198.29 113.17 48.06 12.14 16.02
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Long-term Investments 1,165.28 1,256.21 1,073.02 916.31 656.48 656.48 656.48 656.48 656.48 656.48
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Deferred Commission1 118.54 175.92 213.19 273.19 281.63 319.49 386.08 456.19 526.90 591.81
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Operating Lease ROU Assets 186.82 190.36 231.27 252.13 359.44 452.39 546.67 645.94 746.06 837.98
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Goodwill 8.45 8.45 657.37 975.91 1,056.56 1,056.56 1,056.56 1,056.56 1,056.56 1,056.56