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New Incentives – current states of operationNew Incentives – prospective statesNew Incentives – prospective states
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NigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeria
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallBauchiGombeJigawaKaduna - cohort 17KanoKatsinaKebbiSokotoZamfaraAbiaAdamawaAkwa IbomAnambraBayelsaBenueBornoCross RiverDeltaEbonyiEdoEkitiEnuguFCTImoKadunaKogiKwaraLagosNasarawaNigerNiger -
cohorts 32 & 36		Niger -
cohort 34		OgunOndoOsunOyoPlateauRiversTarabaYobe
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)
xbenchmark
feed-20.010.018.29.012.616.829.038.631.31.73.91.61.82.73.05.11.52.11.11.51.21.11.41.25.22.32.01.13.37.38.85.32.42.11.21.72.21.66.411.5
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Grantee costs
6
7
GiveWell costs
8
Grant size$input$1,000,000----------------------------------------
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Spending attributable to grantee
11
Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Cost per child enrolled
14
Cost per infant enrolled in the program$input$16.26
15
Adjustment for repeat enrollments%input10.72%
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Adjusted cost per infant enrolled in the program$calc$18.21----------------------------------------
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Outputs
19
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Total children enrolled
21
Total children enrolled in the program#calc-54,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,90754,907
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Counterfactual vaccination coverage
24
Proportion of children in the target population who would be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines%supp-56%68%64%61%59%56%43%39%53%89%84%86%83%81%81%60%92%82%99%91%95%97%91%93%73%83%72%92%74%61%56%71%69%76%90%75%81%90%73%62%
25
Corresponding proportion of children who would not be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across incentivized vaccines%calc-44%32%36%39%41%44%57%61%47%11%16%14%17%19%19%40%8%18%1%9%5%3%9%7%27%17%28%8%26%39%44%29%31%24%10%25%19%10%27%38%
26
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Effect of the program on vaccination coverage
28
Reduction in the proportion of children who are unvaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program, based on GW's analysis of the New Incentives RCT, aggregated across vaccines%supp33%----------------------------------------
29
Internal validity adjustment%input-12%----------------------------------------
30
Reduction in the proportion of children who are unvaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program%calc29%---------------------------------------
31
Corresponding increase in the proportion of children who are vaccinated as a result of New Incentives' programpptcalc-13%9%11%11%12%13%17%18%14%3%5%4%5%6%6%12%2%5%0%3%2%1%3%2%8%5%8%2%8%12%13%9%9%7%3%7%5%3%8%11%
32
Total proportion of children in the target population who are vaccinated%calc-69%78%74%72%71%69%60%57%67%92%89%90%88%86%86%72%94%87%99%93%96%98%94%95%81%88%80%95%82%72%69%79%78%83%93%83%87%93%81%73%
33
34
Number of children vaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program
35
Children in the target population#calc-79,44070,79473,74375,79177,11880,00892,08196,66982,14059,66661,89760,98662,36463,53863,57276,38358,12362,88955,34658,73457,04056,19558,52257,55367,82362,48768,60058,08467,07276,02280,00369,34870,18266,05059,14266,45663,23959,13568,00875,049
36
Children counterfactually vaccinated#calc-10,1706,5867,8088,6589,20810,40615,41117,31311,2901,9732,8982,5203,0913,5783,5928,9031,3333,3091821,5868845341,4981,0975,3543,1425,6771,3175,0438,75410,4045,9876,3324,6191,7564,7883,4541,7535,4318,350
37
38
Outcomes
39
40
Mortality reduction among people under age 5
41
Probability that a person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-2.76%1.95%2.72%1.17%1.87%2.02%2.20%3.33%3.72%0.66%1.62%0.39%0.40%0.70%0.89%0.79%0.47%0.52%0.73%0.51%0.41%0.28%0.46%0.29%1.17%0.47%0.31%0.22%0.69%1.13%1.13%1.13%0.40%0.45%0.20%0.29%0.54%0.49%1.78%1.46%
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Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-28%35%45%52%36%36%45%16%30%59%50%64%64%54%51%32%72%60%78%71%74%78%70%74%52%65%50%71%51%39%39%39%46%54%69%54%56%69%46%55%
43
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among people under age 5, aggregated across vaccines%supp-52%53%55%54%52%55%56%53%54%49%51%55%55%55%52%54%56%54%55%54%54%57%54%54%54%61%56%54%54%53%53%53%54%52%56%56%53%54%52%57%
44
Probability that an unvaccinated person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%calc-3.2%2.4%3.6%1.6%2.3%2.5%2.9%3.6%4.4%0.9%2.2%0.6%0.6%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.8%0.8%1.3%0.8%0.7%0.5%0.7%0.5%1.6%0.8%0.4%0.4%1.0%1.4%1.4%1.4%0.5%0.6%0.3%0.4%0.8%0.8%2.3%2.1%
45
Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75----------------------------------------
46
Probability that an unvaccinated person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-5.7%4.2%6.3%2.8%4.0%4.4%5.1%6.4%7.8%1.6%3.8%1.1%1.1%1.8%2.1%1.7%1.4%1.3%2.2%1.4%1.2%0.9%1.3%0.8%2.8%1.4%0.7%0.6%1.7%2.5%2.5%2.5%0.9%1.1%0.6%0.7%1.3%1.4%4.1%3.7%
47
Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%----------------------------------------
48
Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-300146272134190249441584478165715183539801024212631058327244461161387932266202513115179
49
50
Mortality reduction among people age 5 through age 14
51
Probability that a 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15%supp-0.23%0.16%0.23%0.10%0.15%0.18%0.20%0.28%0.29%0.05%0.13%0.04%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.09%0.06%0.06%0.08%0.04%0.04%0.04%0.05%0.04%0.10%0.06%0.04%0.03%0.08%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.05%0.05%0.03%0.03%0.07%0.05%0.14%0.16%
52
Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-16%20%25%30%22%20%25%10%18%34%29%35%35%29%29%19%38%34%42%39%41%41%40%40%30%34%27%41%28%23%23%23%26%29%38%29%31%38%27%30%
53
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 5-14-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-51%51%53%53%50%53%54%53%53%48%49%50%52%51%47%50%48%50%49%49%49%49%48%48%53%57%52%48%50%51%51%51%50%48%49%52%48%49%49%52%
54
Probability that an unvaccinated 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15%calc-0.25%0.18%0.26%0.12%0.17%0.21%0.24%0.29%0.32%0.06%0.15%0.05%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.10%0.07%0.07%0.10%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.06%0.05%0.12%0.07%0.05%0.04%0.09%0.12%0.12%0.12%0.06%0.06%0.03%0.04%0.09%0.06%0.17%0.19%
55
Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75----------------------------------------
56
Probability that an unvaccinated 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-0.43%0.31%0.46%0.21%0.30%0.36%0.41%0.51%0.57%0.11%0.26%0.09%0.10%0.13%0.20%0.18%0.13%0.12%0.18%0.10%0.09%0.09%0.11%0.08%0.21%0.13%0.09%0.07%0.16%0.22%0.22%0.22%0.10%0.11%0.06%0.07%0.15%0.10%0.29%0.34%
57
Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%----------------------------------------
58
Deaths averted among people age 5 through 14#calc-2210191014203447341412238120100106230410117321231815
59
Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%----------------------------------------
60
Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 5-15-year-olds#input10.0----------------------------------------
61
Discounted deaths averted among people age 5 through age 14#calc-21101891319334532141223812010010623049116320221714
62
63
Mortality reduction among people age 15 through age 49
64
Probability that a 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50%supp-0.77%0.46%0.87%0.33%0.43%0.72%0.77%1.05%0.92%0.22%0.41%0.24%0.23%0.30%0.41%0.36%0.33%0.26%0.34%0.25%0.23%0.24%0.22%0.21%0.33%0.26%0.30%0.16%0.38%0.48%0.48%0.48%0.28%0.26%0.17%0.20%0.39%0.23%0.52%0.72%
65
Proportion of 15-49-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-6%8%10%12%8%8%9%4%7%14%11%13%13%11%11%8%14%13%15%15%15%15%15%16%12%13%10%16%11%9%9%9%11%11%14%11%12%15%10%11%
66
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 15-49-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-17%18%17%18%18%17%17%17%17%19%19%19%19%20%19%18%20%19%19%19%19%19%19%19%18%19%19%19%18%18%18%18%19%19%19%20%19%19%18%17%
67
Probability that an unvaccinated 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50%calc-0.8%0.5%0.9%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.8%1.1%0.9%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.5%0.7%
68
Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75----------------------------------------
69
Probability that an unvaccinated 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-1.4%0.8%1.6%0.6%0.8%1.3%1.4%1.8%1.6%0.4%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.4%0.9%1.3%
70
Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%----------------------------------------
71
Deaths averted among people age 15 through 49#calc-24102010122336553214224510230110116361614169641341919
72
Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%----------------------------------------
73
Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 15-49-year-olds#input32.5----------------------------------------
74
Discounted deaths averted among people age 15 through age 49#calc-20817811193147271322349120110115251512148531341816
75
76
Mortality reduction among people age 50 through age 74
77
Probability that a 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75%supp-3.05%2.11%3.00%1.19%1.59%2.59%3.21%3.30%3.88%0.90%1.67%0.96%0.88%1.18%1.55%1.58%1.35%0.87%1.29%0.79%0.88%0.99%0.67%0.81%1.19%1.13%1.02%0.55%1.08%1.71%1.71%1.71%1.10%1.05%0.83%0.73%1.10%0.86%1.48%2.69%
78
Proportion of 50-74-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-3%4%5%6%4%4%4%2%3%7%5%7%7%6%5%4%7%6%7%7%8%8%8%8%6%6%5%8%5%4%4%4%5%6%7%5%6%7%5%5%
79
Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 50-74-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-8%9%8%9%9%8%8%8%8%9%9%9%9%10%9%9%10%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%10%9%9%9%8%
80
Probability that an unvaccinated 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75%calc-3.1%2.1%3.0%1.2%1.6%2.6%3.2%3.3%3.9%0.9%1.7%1.0%0.9%1.2%1.6%1.6%1.4%0.9%1.3%0.8%0.9%1.0%0.7%0.8%1.2%1.1%1.0%0.6%1.1%1.7%1.7%1.7%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.7%1.1%0.9%1.5%2.7%
81
Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75----------------------------------------
82
Probability that an unvaccinated 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-5.3%3.7%5.3%2.1%2.8%4.5%5.6%5.8%6.8%1.6%2.9%1.7%1.5%2.1%2.7%2.8%2.4%1.5%2.3%1.4%1.6%1.8%1.2%1.4%2.1%2.0%1.8%1.0%1.9%3.0%3.0%3.0%1.9%1.8%1.5%1.3%1.9%1.5%2.6%4.7%
83
Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%----------------------------------------
84
Deaths averted among people age 50 through 74#calc-462234162340738364384479233502112110691924281611826621334
85
Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%----------------------------------------
86
Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 50-74-year-olds#input62.5----------------------------------------
87
Discounted deaths averted among people age 50 through age 74#calc-341625121729546147263357162302111174716172112862452925
88
89
Long-term income increases
90
Ratio of value generated from income increases to value generated from mortalities averted among people under age 15 by seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC)#input0.31----------------------------------------
91
Adjustment for income increases generated by New Incentives' program compared to SMC%input0%----------------------------------------
92
Ratio of value generated from income increases to value generated from mortalities averted among people under age 15 by New Incentives' program#calc0.31----------------------------------------
93
Value assigned to averting a death from vaccine-preventable disease of a person under age 5 UoVinput116----------------------------------------
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Value assigned to averting a death from vaccine-preventable disease of a person age 5-14UoVinput134----------------------------------------
95
Units of value generated from deaths averted among people under age 15UoVcalc-37,77518,27734,05016,78323,86131,51555,58873,82659,9301,9707,0831,8342,3514,3304,97810,3241,2973,0312781,5297103381,30362910,3793,3873,0915795,84914,71217,48610,0624,1143,3477252,5073,1901,60014,36422,641
96
Units of value generated from long-term income increasesUoVcalc-11,5775,60110,4355,1437,3139,65817,03622,62618,3676042,1715627211,3271,5263,164398929854692181043991933,1811,0389471771,7934,5095,3593,0841,2611,0262227689784904,4026,939
97
98
Consumption increases
99
Travel cost of bringing a child to a health clinic for vaccination (when travel is not free)₦input₦298----------------------------------------
100
Percentage of disbursements where a caregiver reported no transportation cost%input68%