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New Incentives – current states of operationNew Incentives – prospective statesNew Incentives – prospective states
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NigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeria
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InputsunittypeOverallBauchiGombeJigawaKaduna - cohort 17KanoKatsinaKebbiSokotoZamfaraAbiaAdamawaAkwa IbomAnambraBayelsaBenueBornoCross RiverDeltaEbonyiEdoEkitiEnuguFCTImoKadunaKogiKwaraLagosNasarawaNigerNiger -
cohorts 32 & 36		Niger -
cohort 34		OgunOndoOsunOyoPlateauRiversTarabaYobeSourceGW analysis and discussion
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from "Main calcs" sheet for visibility)xcashcalc-19.99.918.08.912.516.728.838.331.11.73.91.61.82.63.05.01.52.11.11.51.21.11.41.25.22.22.01.13.27.38.75.32.42.11.21.72.21.56.311.4
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Costs
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7
GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000----------------------------------------Arbitrary value
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Cost per child covered
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Cost per infant enrolled in the program$input$16.26----------------------------------------
New Incentives, Summary of Funding Gap Estimates (unpublished)
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Adjustment for repeat enrollments%input10.72%GW analysis
GW's analysis of New Incentives cost per infant immunized
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Vaccine efficacy
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Vaccine efficacy rates from meta-analyses
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BCG vaccine efficacy rate from Abubakar et al. 2013%input66%----------------------------------------Abubakar et al. 2013
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DTP vaccine efficacy rate from the LiST meta-analysis (part of the Penta vaccine)%input94%----------------------------------------
Lives Saved Tool (LiST)
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Hib vaccine efficacy rate from Thumburu et al. 2015 (part of the Penta vaccine)%input82%----------------------------------------
Thumburu et al. 2015
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PCV vaccine efficacy rate from the LiST meta-analysis%input48%----------------------------------------
Cutts et al. 2005 and Klugman et al. 2003
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Rotavirus vaccine efficacy rate from the LiST meta-analysis%input46%----------------------------------------
Lives Saved Tool (LiST)
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Measles single dose vaccine efficacy rate from the LiST meta-analysis%input85%----------------------------------------
Lives Saved Tool (LiST)
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Measles two-dose vaccine efficacy rate, adjusted from the LiST meta-analysis%input90%----------------------------------------
Lives Saved Tool (LiST)
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Adjustment for geography-specific vaccine efficacy
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Measles vaccine efficacy rate GiveWell infers from the results of IDinsight's biomarkers pilot, assuming the results are entirely explained by vaccine efficacy%input26%----------------------------------------GW analysisGW's analysis of the biomarkers pilot results for Nigeria
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Measles vaccine efficacy rate implied by the results of Fowotade et al. 2015%input69%----------------------------------------
Fowotade et al. 2015
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Measles vaccine efficacy rate from Uzicanin and Zimmerman 2011%input73%----------------------------------------
Uzicanin and Zimmerman 2011
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Weight assigned to the vaccine efficacy rate from the LiST meta-analysis%input20%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Weight assigned to the vaccine efficacy rate GiveWell infers from the results of IDinsight's biomarkers pilot%input10%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Weight assigned to the vaccine efficacy rate implied by the results of Fowotade et al. 2015%input35%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Weight assigned to the vaccine efficacy rate from Uzicanin and Zimmerman 2011%input35%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Proportion of the adjustment for geography-specific measles vaccine efficacy that applies to other vaccines%input75%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Vaccine coverage in trials
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Vaccination coverage rate in the trials informing our vaccine efficacy estimates%input95%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Baseline vaccination coverage
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Populations targeted by New Incentives' coverage surveys
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Number of local government areas (LGAs) within the state#input-2011276443421231417213121823271825121816176272321162013251262018303317231617
Local government areas of Nigeria
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Number of LGAs surveyed by New Incentives' coverage surveys#input-2011236441216141018000000000000018000018126000000910GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Starting year of New Incentives' coverage surveys#input-2022202220212023202220212023202220220202300000000000002023000020242024202400000020232024
New Incentives, data from coverage surveys
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Ending year of New Incentives' coverage surveys#input-2022202320222023202320222023202220220202300000000000002023000020242024202400000020232024
New Incentives, data from coverage surveys
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Adjustment for higher confidence in coverage survey results%input50%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Baseline vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' coverage surveys
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Proportion of children reported to have received the BCG vaccine in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input-55%73%61%64%61%42%40%35%21%-89%-------------77%----66%62%76%------76%63%GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the Penta vaccine in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input-49%68%57%60%56%39%34%27%14%-86%-------------74%----63%57%75%------73%59%GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 2nd dose of the Penta vaccine in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input-45%63%52%51%48%37%24%26%13%-79%-------------67%----53%46%65%------66%48%GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 3rd dose of the Penta vaccine in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input-35%50%40%41%37%30%15%19%9%-70%-------------58%----39%34%50%------56%38%GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the measles vaccine in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input-35%49%37%32%32%26%23%21%14%-59%-------------54%----36%31%45%------51%35%GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Baseline vaccination coverage found in coverage surveys, adjusted for self-report bias
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Adjustment for self-report bias in New Incentives' coverage surveys%input0.06%----------------------------------------GW analysis
GW's analysis of vaccination coverage found in New Incentives' rapid assessments
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Baseline vaccination coverage found in 2021 MICS coverage surveys
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Proportion of children reported to have received the BCG vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-49%59%64%78%60%57%64%34%51%91%84%86%84%79%82%65%93%84%99%92%99%99%95%95%78%92%72%94%79%67%67%67%72%75%93%83%88%90%71%75%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-42%54%61%73%55%53%60%29%45%88%75%86%83%78%81%58%93%81%99%92%95%99%91%94%73%86%66%92%72%62%62%62%67%73%91%76%80%90%72%74%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
60
Proportion of children reported to have received the 2nd dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-38%51%56%67%47%47%58%18%35%86%67%82%75%76%75%45%92%76%99%91%94%97%87%93%67%74%64%90%65%50%50%50%58%68%88%64%78%87%65%71%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 3rd dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-31%38%49%60%42%41%55%12%25%75%54%73%74%70%63%30%75%70%99%83%85%91%80%89%60%63%55%85%54%39%39%39%41%63%82%57%65%78%52%64%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the PCV vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-42%52%61%72%54%52%60%22%46%89%75%84%83%77%79%54%93%79%99%90%96%99%91%94%72%85%64%92%71%58%58%58%65%72%91%75%79%90%71%72%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 2nd dose of the PCV vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-38%47%56%65%47%44%57%14%36%85%67%82%75%75%71%38%92%73%99%86%90%96%87%91%65%72%61%89%63%50%50%50%57%66%83%63%69%85%62%68%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 3rd dose of the PCV vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-31%37%48%59%40%39%54%10%27%67%54%71%74%67%56%31%73%69%99%77%83%91%80%86%59%62%53%80%51%40%40%40%40%61%69%57%61%79%50%63%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the measles vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-31%37%56%57%41%44%63%19%46%75%61%72%67%66%68%39%80%73%92%80%95%80%90%75%57%72%64%86%57%55%55%55%56%66%80%61%70%85%65%71%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
66
Proportion of children reported to have received the 2nd dose of the measles vaccine in the 2021 MICS survey%input-11%18%33%31%14%25%55%19%33%61%31%45%65%57%32%18%53%51%66%49%66%66%46%41%31%57%34%68%27%20%20%20%42%50%54%44%26%54%39%48%
Nigeria MICS report, 2021
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68
Baseline vaccination coverage found in 2017 MICS coverage surveys
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Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2017 MICS survey%input-35%45%20%44%28%28%20%9%15%82%57%80%90%61%68%73%84%76%80%89%87%85%88%88%44%64%71%94%56%36%36%36%71%76%83%69%70%82%36%18%
Nigeria MICS report, 2017
70
Proportion of children reported to have received the 2nd dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2017 MICS survey%input-25%29%9%33%21%18%17%5%10%69%50%73%82%50%60%64%77%64%66%86%80%79%72%72%33%48%61%86%45%31%31%31%59%71%66%65%57%73%20%11%
Nigeria MICS report, 2017
71
Proportion of children reported to have received the 3rd dose of the Penta vaccine in the 2017 MICS survey%input-19%25%7%30%16%12%11%3%9%55%38%68%76%43%57%48%70%57%54%75%72%74%66%66%30%38%49%80%35%20%20%20%52%66%60%54%45%66%16%9%
Nigeria MICS report, 2017
72
Proportion of children reported to have received the BCG vaccine in the 2017 MICS survey%input-41%54%26%51%34%29%23%16%19%87%67%82%89%66%66%81%88%81%83%97%87%93%88%96%51%73%72%93%64%38%38%38%80%83%88%77%80%82%40%16%
Nigeria MICS report, 2017
73
Proportion of children reported to have received the 1st dose of the measles vaccine in the 2017 MICS survey%input-22%32%10%43%24%21%26%10%16%70%49%64%75%52%54%58%74%64%58%86%80%81%76%75%43%65%67%88%50%31%31%31%59%72%67%53%65%71%29%15%
Nigeria MICS report, 2017
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75
Self-report adjustments for MICS surveys
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Proportion of positive responses that came from self-report in the 2021 MICS survey%input22%----------------------------------------GW analysis
GW's analysis of self-report bias in vaccine coverage sources for New Incentives
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Proportion of positive responses that came from self-report in the 2017 MICS survey%input44%----------------------------------------GW analysis
GW's analysis of self-report bias in vaccine coverage sources for New Incentives
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79
Estimated change in counterfactual vaccination coverage over time
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Estimated change per year in the proportion of children that are unvaccinated, in the absence of New Incentives%input-5%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
81
82
Weighting of coverage estimates from different sources for the rotavirus vaccine
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Weight placed on estimated coverage for the Penta vaccine for estimating rotavirus vaccine coverage%input50%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
84
Weight placed on estimated coverage for the PCV vaccine for estimating rotavirus vaccine coverage%input50%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
85
86
Baseline coverage for the rotavirus vaccine
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Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the 1st dose of the rotavirus vaccine%input0%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the 2nd dose of the rotavirus vaccine%input0%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who received the 3rd dose of the rotavirus vaccine%input0%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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91
Weighting of vaccination coverage estimates from different sources for the measles vaccine
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Weight placed on the results of New Incentives' coverage surveys for estimating measles vaccine coverage%input0%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
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Weight placed on the results of the 2021 MICS survey for estimating measles vaccine coverage%input100%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
94
95
Proportion of vaccine efficacy provided by individual doses
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Proportion of total Penta vaccine efficacy provided by the 1st dose%input35%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
97
Proportion of total Penta vaccine efficacy provided by the 2nd dose%input55%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
98
Proportion of total Penta vaccine efficacy provided by the 3rd dose%input10%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
99
Proportion of total PCV vaccine efficacy provided by the 1st dose%input35%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate
100
Proportion of total PCV vaccine efficacy provided by the 2nd dose%input55%----------------------------------------GW guesstimate