retention swing 972003
 Share
The version of the browser you are using is no longer supported. Please upgrade to a supported browser.Dismiss

 
View only
 
 
Still loading...
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKAL
1
Retention Swing AnalysisSlot the poll figures into this columnthis gives the seats prediction
2
HEREHERE
3
The retention swing is done on the basis that the opinion polls give the party proportions across the country.
4
Each constituency is calculated on the basis of what proportion of a party's vote it retains and what proportion shifts to other parties
5
That which shifts to other parties is allocated on the proportion by which the party is doing better in the election.
6
7
Party2005 VotesNew VotesRetainedExcessDeficitTo Conto LabTo LdTo NatTo OtherNew Seats
8
CON33.23%32.00%96.29852543%0.003.701474571%96.29852543%00.033517289420.0032383854520.00025907083611.0000264
9
LAB36.20%26.00%71.82320442%0.0028.17679558%071.82320442%0.25514421190.024651614680.0019721291741.0000190
10
LIB22.65%33.00%10.100001001.0000164
11
NAT2.22%3.22%10.010000101.000011
12
MIN5.70%5.78%10.000000011.00003
13
100.00%100.00%11.43%632
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
LabConSeatMP at 2005 ElectorateTurnCONLABLIBNATMINOTH2005Pred264190164113
23
SeatsSeatsout % %%%%%%WinWinCast votesConLabLibNatOthConLabLibNatOthrounding errorWinning voteColumnTory WinLab WinLD WinNat WinOth win
24
1554KnowsleyEddie O'Hara78,85752.087.876.5812.84002.77LABLAB41068.72563203.36059731450.430065273.22436701137.6036993084.78901922588.7066813404.98753785.67759981200.45790741064.6187341064.6187304.1068725622588.70668201000
25
2553Liverpool WaltonPeter Kilfoyle68,23545.156.2371.7616.3503.62.06LABLAB30808.10251919.34478622107.894355037.12475901743.7386021848.30072715878.5981510742.15728551.21087121787.83547130808.102530808.10250015878.59815201000
26
3552RhonddaChris Bryant51,04161.025.5668.0610.4715.9100LABLAB31145.21821731.67413221197.435513260.9043464955.20421601667.57665415224.677448727.3483465483.36305642.2527072531145.218231145.21820015224.67744201000
27
4551BootleJoe Benton72,02252.557.9769.3117.29005.43LABLAB37847.5613016.45061226232.144536543.84329702055.1225622904.79745918840.7667913337.92639656.4331492107.63721437847.56137847.5610018840.76679201000
28
5550EasingtonJohn Cummings61,94552.2910.571.6412.85005.01LABLAB32391.04053401.05925323204.941414162.24870401622.7911293275.16990916666.5325110196.84948583.05321521669.43538632391.040532391.04050016666.53251201000
29
6549Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughDavid Blunkett67,28650.279.5267.3414.4204.733.99LABLAB33824.67223220.10879322777.534264877.51773102949.5114163100.91728516359.5549910797.00308571.93095142995.26589233824.672233824.67220016359.55499201000
30
7548Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke67,38556.97.2464.4812.0113.5802.69LABLAB38342.0652775.96550624722.963514604.8820075206.8524271031.4015492673.21384917756.8246211005.845895825.3030441080.87759838342.06538342.0650017756.82462201000
31
8547Barnsley EastJeff Ennis65,78150.9112.669.6514.19003.56LABLAB33489.10714219.62749523325.16314752.10429701192.2122134063.43905616752.8795710844.81513588.66771331239.3056333489.107133489.10710016752.87957201000
32
9546Cynon ValleyAnn Clwyd49,35458.917.7162.9212.9613.5402.86LABLAB29074.44142241.63943218293.638533768.0476053936.679366831.5290242158.66571813139.07748510.6972694394.906386868.187185729071.5339629071.5339602.9074441413139.0774201000
33
10545Glasgow South WestIan Davidson62,00549.965.7760.2211.615.365.381.68LABLAB30977.6981787.41317518654.769743593.4129684758.1744132187.0254791721.2525313398.45348412.9787365223.8329412224.27816130980.7957730980.795770-3.097769813398.4534201000
34
11544IslwynDon Touhig55,03960.8210.764.5411.9712.6900.09LABLAB33474.71983581.79501921604.584164006.923964247.94194330.127247823449.21578715517.104649639.260624792.1290673.6622171733471.3723333471.3723303.3474719815517.10464201000
35
12543Glasgow EastDavid Marshall64,13048.246.9160.6911.8417.0303.54LABLAB30936.3122137.69915918775.247753662.8593415268.4539341095.1454452058.57276813484.984578524.9050145738.2168011132.72647430939.4056330939.405630-3.093631213484.98457201000
36
13542Glasgow North EastMichael Martin62,04245.80.0253.32017.6614.214.79LABLAB28415.2365.683047215151.0038405018.1306788237.5769165.47269065310881.936463865.8814145391.645798267.45812528412.3944828412.3944802.841523610881.93646201000
37
14541Liverpool West DerbyRobert Wareing66,49447.688.3761.0115.12010.744.77LABLAB31704.33922653.65319119342.817354793.69608704917.343012555.42889313892.631249817.847238485.42523194956.17702831707.5096331707.509630-3.1704339213892.63124201000
38
15540GatesheadDavid Clelland64,48852.911.1263.221.41004.27LABLAB34114.1523793.49370221560.144067303.83994301456.674293653.07849815485.1863412931.93354543.77715871500.17646334114.15234114.1520015485.18634201000
39
16539Wentworth and DearneJohn Healey70,78554.412.5164.5816.13006.77LABLAB38507.044817.23070424867.846436211.18555202606.9266084638.92213417860.8841812717.53315628.6326182657.21721738503.189338503.189303.85070417860.88418201000
40
17538Camberwell and PeckhamHarriet Harman74,56753.189.961.8420.0902.695.48LABLAB39654.73063925.81832924522.48547966.63537803239.791493780.50516217612.8348214354.98838617.23217413289.17006439654.730639654.73060017612.83482201000
41
18537Merthyr Tydfil And RhymneyDai Havard54,57854.928.9660.4813.989.9206.66LABLAB29974.23762685.69168918128.41894190.3984162973.444371996.2842242586.28149413020.411368905.7766763429.0364722032.73159229974.237629974.23760013020.41136201000
42
19536Houghton and Sunderland SouthFraser Kemp69,51250.7115.4166.9114.1003.58LABLAB35249.53525431.95337423585.4644970.18446301261.933365230.89100116939.8360211169.94344599.01052941309.85420335249.535235249.53520016939.83602201000
43
20535Blackley and BroughtonGraham Stringer65,59644.9811.5462.7220.97004.78LABLAB29505.08083404.88632418505.586686187.21544401410.3428623278.85532313291.3053511022.93133467.21892661447.72037629508.0313129508.031310-2.9505080813291.30535201000
44
21534Manchester CentralTony Lloyd72,70942.6910.6960.9720.4103.624.31LABLAB31039.47213318.11956718924.766146335.15625602461.4301383195.30021513592.3734711274.91517477.27139292499.61184931039.472131039.47210013592.37347201000
45
22533Washington and Sunderland WestSharon Hodgson68,22052.5515.0865.3512.44007.13LABLAB35849.615406.12118823427.720144459.69148402556.0771935206.01498716826.5393210618.3372595.03823382603.68025235849.6135849.610016826.53932201000
46
23532AberavonHywel Francis51,07958.9310.1860.0613.7411.7804.24LABLAB30100.85473064.26700818078.573334135.8574363545.8806841276.2762392950.84394412984.610688851.2067064001.4699851312.72338330100.854730100.85470012984.61068201000
47
24531Airdrie and ShottsDr John Reid61,95553.529.8759.0211.4316.5403.14LABLAB33158.3163272.72578919570.03813789.9955195484.3854661041.1711223151.58667614055.828478892.8703665977.4168531080.61363333158.31633158.3160014055.82847201000
48
25530Liverpool RiversideLouise Ellman75,32542.449.3758.0323.4600.568.58LABLAB31967.932995.39504118550.989787499.67637802921.8688022884.52125513323.9153112333.25157467.01209572959.2297731967.9331967.930013323.91531201000
49
26529BolsoverDennis Skinner70,24957.4317.1965.6917.11000LABLAB40344.00076935.1337226501.974066902.85852006678.43150919034.56713897.13069675.775088954.0620071240339.966340339.966304.0344000719034.567201000
50
27528JarrowStephen Hepburn63,37254.9812.1760.4922.41004.92LABLAB34841.92564240.26234621075.88087808.07552701714.222744083.31011315137.3729513327.58662533.28609631756.88562734838.4414134838.4414103.4841925615137.37295201000
51
28527Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,98755.49.2857.4712.0316.4504.77LABLAB37110.7983443.88205421327.575614464.4289996104.7262711770.1850653316.40763615318.1482310021.466066641.6380651813.13800837110.79837110.7980015318.14823201000
52
29526LeighAndrew Burnham75,87751.3214.0462.0415.0600.368.5LABLAB38940.07645467.18672724158.42345864.37550603450.0907695264.820217351.3538212211.50269613.24900293499.15068938940.076438940.07640017351.35382201000
53
30525Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown71,60658.3710.3258.0913.0414.504.06LABLAB41796.42224313.39077124279.541665450.2534556060.4812191696.9347414153.73170817438.3448411789.611146672.9795461745.93460841800.6018441800.601840-4.1796422217438.34484201000
54
31524Durham NorthKevan Jones67,50755.3216.7664.0919.15000LABLAB37344.87246259.00061423934.328727151.543065006027.32529817190.4018413468.03324610.288905848.8231124637344.872437344.87240017190.40184201000
55
32523Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTommy McAvoy73,99858.468.3855.618.3513.9203.74LABLAB43259.23083625.12354124052.132327938.0688526021.6849271617.8952323490.94051517275.0121714196.335516626.3483731666.26830843254.9048843254.9048804.3259230817275.01217201000
56
33522BirkenheadFrank Field63,41650.5816.7363.9118.93000.43LABLAB32075.81285366.28348120499.651966071.9513630137.9259955167.65186314723.5069311482.18218522.7276156179.744204332075.812832075.81280014723.50693201000
57
34521MakerfieldIan McCartney74,25551.2314.5261.4411.2805.846.91LABLAB38040.83655523.5294623372.289954291.00635704850.2066545319.07742116786.7275910439.44459594.05200344897.73081438037.0324238037.0324203.8040836516786.72759201000
58
35520OgmoreHuw Irranca-Davies55,23057.913.7760.6814.3610.6700.53LABLAB31978.174403.39400919404.353564592.0652123412.070739169.4843014240.40349913936.828529690.563543904.679273208.892983731981.3678231981.367820-3.19781713936.82852201000
59
36519Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordYvette Cooper78,14954.117.464.0711.24007.29LABLAB42278.6097356.47796627087.904794752.11565203082.1105967084.17980519455.4012311910.00697691.58370253137.43729242278.60942278.6090019455.40123201000
60
37518Swansea EastSian James58,81352.4310.0856.6220.136.906.27LABLAB30835.65593108.23411517459.148376207.2175332127.6602571933.3956252993.18361912539.7198210765.997772568.1221161968.63257430835.655930835.65590012539.71982201000
61
38517Liverpool WavertreeJane Kennedy67,50150.236.0651.9739.4300.062.48LABLAB33905.75232054.68858917620.8194713369.038130861.20610841978.63481412655.8371917933.75582441.0355256896.488950533905.752333905.75230017933.75582300100
62
39516Garston and HalewoodMaria Eagle72,06454.1910.6556.4731.06001.82LABLAB39051.48164158.9827922052.3716612129.390180710.73696514005.039115838.7199817895.323557.0949583755.304561839051.481639051.48160017895.323300100
63
40515Sheffield South EastClive Betts67,36254.3714.459.9517.4900.177.98LABLAB36624.71945273.95959421956.519286405.66342302984.9146315078.7453215769.8757312184.51106558.3427673029.58205236621.0569336621.0569303.6624719415769.87573201000
64
41514Dunbartonshire WestJohn McFall67,80561.346.4551.9414.4221.7505.43LABLAB41591.5872682.65736221602.670295997.5068459046.1701732258.4231742583.35948115515.7300411599.218549587.3983552301.72142941587.4278441587.4278404.159158715515.73004201000
65
42513RotherhamDenis MacShane61,83355.5612.6957.8516.010013.45LABLAB34354.41484359.57523819874.028965500.14180904620.6687914198.20666914274.1644510717.00641504.04488914660.99238234354.414834354.41480014274.16445201000
66
43512Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastRosemary McKenna64,74860.376.9651.8114.8822.2304.12LABLAB39088.36762720.55038520251.683255816.3490998689.3441171610.4407452619.84990414545.4078611074.634349197.3911651.08449639088.367639088.36760014545.40786201000
67
44511GlenrothesJohn MacDougall66,56356.147.1151.9112.6523.3704.97LABLAB37368.46822656.89808919397.971844727.1112278733.0110181857.212872558.55368213932.244979765.4434899219.8064061896.15650137372.2050537372.205050-3.7368468213932.24497201000
68
45510SedgefieldTony Blair64,54462.2114.2658.8511.69010.524.68LABLAB40152.82245725.79247423629.935984693.86493906103.2290055513.85372216971.7772210914.81938601.05839986151.31367740152.822440152.82240016971.77722201000
69
46509TottenhamDavid Lammy66,23147.8113.5257.9416.7606.365.42LABLAB31665.04114281.11355718346.724815307.06088803730.1418424122.64922713177.2056710131.61285466.14028663767.43306531665.041131665.04110013177.20567201000
70
47508St Helens South and WhistonShaun Woodward76,71353.6511.8756.0828.47003.58LABLAB41156.52454885.27945823080.5789411717.2625301473.4035774704.45208116577.2113917769.87998584.79395661520.18709441156.524541156.52450017769.87998300100
71
48507Leeds CentralHilary Benn75,35749.4913.3257.4723.200.435.59LABLAB37294.17934967.58468321432.964848652.24959802245.1095944783.71079915393.8421514287.2465544.44414482288.66512537297.9087237297.908720-3.7294179315393.84215201000
72
49506Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander60,18162.918.4352.5717.6217.5703.8LABLAB37859.86713191.58679719902.932136670.9085836651.9786491438.674953073.45102314294.9236311855.999867152.9536521478.7529537856.0811137856.0811103.7859867114294.92363201000
73
50505PontypriddKim Howells55,96060.9111.6455.2518.4211.4203.28LABLAB34085.2363967.5214718832.092896278.5004713892.5339511117.9957413820.66467213525.8125711216.380544369.6238131156.1629334088.6445234088.644520-3.408523613525.81257201000
74
51504HaltonDerek Twigg68,80353.3519.7763.3316.6000.3LABLAB36706.40057256.85537923246.163446093.2624830110.11920156988.24472216696.1394812267.61666596.5559587157.843678236706.400536706.40050016696.13948201000
75
52503BlaydonDavid Anderson66,72761.767.9951.437.77002.84LABLAB41210.59523292.72655621182.2459315565.2418101170.3809043170.8471215213.767821080.13252532.83968261213.00807841210.595241210.59520021080.13252300100
76
53502Barnsley CentralEric Illsley64,69849.716.259.0719.15005.58LABLAB32154.9065209.09477218993.902976157.66449901794.2437555016.28145413642.0297611178.44364485.09943411833.0517132154.90632154.9060013642.02976201000
77
54501Hull EastJohn Prescott67,95347.5713.1855.9719.820011.03LABLAB32325.24214260.46690918092.4386406.86298403565.4742044102.7668112994.5687311165.84312459.80484433602.25859132325.242132325.24210012994.56873201000
78
55500Lewisham DeptfordJoan Ruddock66,71452.1312.6555.1117.4609.65.19LABLAB34778.00824399.41803719166.160326072.24023205143.6674134236.57469713765.7505111109.83167486.72381055182.60531834781.48634781.4860-3.4778008213765.75051201000
79
56499Birmingham LadywoodClare Short64,81448.429.0151.0130.4903.795.7LABLAB31382.93882827.60278616008.437089568.6580402978.2408922722.93978811497.7724913747.89168403.79069033010.54414731382.938831382.93880013747.89168300100
80
57498Glasgow CentralMohammad Sarwar64,05343.776.2848.2217.7814.794.898.03LABLAB28035.99811760.66068113518.958284984.8004624146.5241193622.2509551695.4902739709.7490448493.0969934485.4899673649.36822228033.194528033.194502.803599819709.749044201000
81
58497Leeds WestJohn Battle66,06853.7714.1355.917.040012.93LABLAB35524.76365019.64909719858.342856053.41971704593.3519334833.84806214262.8981811288.40599505.79577484633.81559535524.763635524.76360014262.89818201000
82
59496Manchester GortonSir Gerald Kaufman70,85344.6310.0151.5834.3300.423.66LABLAB31621.69393165.33155916310.4697110855.7275201290.1651113048.16761711714.70215123.34279412.32997831323.15150931621.693931621.69390015123.34279300100
83
60495TorfaenPaul Murphy60,67059.315.856.915.776.233.182.11LABLAB35977.315684.4149820471.089395673.6217872241.3864131903.1996995474.00780514702.9923811087.227942764.4401481945.04399835973.7122735973.7122703.59773114702.99238201000
84
61494MiddlesbroughSir Stuart Bell65,97648.916.6557.7518.39007.21LABLAB32262.2645371.66695618631.457465933.0303502326.1092345172.8360713381.7097810866.7826476.69103842364.24451732262.26432262.2640013381.70978201000
85
62493NeathPeter Hain57,59662.1811.5652.5814.2717.104.48LABLAB35813.19284140.00508818830.576775110.5426136124.0559691604.4310373986.76385213524.7236510053.817036601.6670241642.63992235809.6114835809.6114803.5813192813524.72365201000
86
63492Blyth ValleyRonnie Campbell63,64056.2113.9454.9531.11000LABLAB35772.0444986.62293419656.7381811128.68289004802.04435414118.0992416311.12394500.718942640.0575154135772.04435772.0440016311.12394300100
87
64491LivingstonRobin Cook76,35358.0710.1551.115.421.5601.78LABLAB44338.18714500.32599122656.813616828.0808139559.313139789.21973044333.74756816272.8495512759.674410132.41397835.067796744333.7532844333.7532804.4338187116272.84955201000
88
65490FalkirkEric Joyce76,78459.589.9350.851621.401.83LABLAB45747.90724542.76718523262.810817319.6651529790.052141837.18670184374.61781316708.0961613407.2979310378.22922884.240868145752.4819945752.481990-4.5747907216708.09616201000
89
66489South ShieldsDavid Miliband62,63451.1918.3759.1319.24003.27LABLAB32062.34465889.85270318958.464366168.79510101048.4386685671.84130313616.5766111203.34945486.43037171087.35309832065.5508332065.550830-3.2062344613616.57661201000
90
67488Nottingham NorthGraham Allen64,41549.1618.355917.25005.4LABLAB31666.4145810.78696918683.184265462.45641501709.9863565595.70216713418.8616210424.12457479.38822741748.33741431666.41431666.4140013418.86162201000
91
68487Tyneside NorthStephen Byers71,93156.9418.1158.7422.97000.18LABLAB40957.51147417.40531524058.44229407.940369073.723520527142.85194317279.5441215794.92396617.0998643123.091509740957.511440957.51140017279.54412201000
92
69486InverclydeDavid Cairns59,29160.8810.2450.7516.9619.5602.51LABLAB36096.36083696.26734618318.903116121.9427927060.448172906.01865613559.4509513157.2232310919.793757524.008652943.103494436103.5800736103.580070-7.2192721613157.22323201000
93
70485Denton and ReddishAndrew Gwynne65,1335218.2358.6216.58006.57LABLAB33869.166174.34786819854.101595615.50672802225.2038125945.80595214259.8519710888.11324509.43058062265.95825833869.1633869.160014259.85197201000
94
71484CaerphillyWayne David62,49658.61555.3510.1717.8301.65LABLAB36622.6565493.398420270.64013724.5241156529.819565604.2738245290.06165514559.023279080.5844327047.313315645.67332436622.65636622.6560014559.02327201000
95
72483WansbeckDenis Murphy63,09558.341555.1926.44003.37LABLAB36809.6235521.4434520315.230939732.46432101240.4842955317.06862514591.0498415100.84173518.68380731281.97936809.62336809.6230015100.84173300100
96
73482HartlepoolIain Wright68,77651.5211.4751.5130.4006.63LABLAB35433.39524064.21042918251.7418710771.7521402349.2341023913.77471413108.9858715564.79975463.09638772386.28181335436.9385435436.938540-3.5433395215564.79975300100
97
74481Newcastle upon Tyne EastNick Brown60,37456.1512.1252.1333.42002.33LABLAB33900.0014108.68012117672.0705211329.380330789.87002333956.59837112692.6473415976.01866448.950563825.786068333900.00133900.0010015976.01866300100
98
75480Hackney South and ShoreditchMeg Hillier60,76849.7314.0153.6921.2800.1910.83LABLAB30219.92644233.81168916225.078486430.80033803330.2358894077.09822611653.3712910712.44109413.68509713363.33069730219.926430219.92640011653.37129201000
99
76479East HamStephen Timms82,84650.414.0653.6810.44020.141.67LABLAB41754.3845870.6663922413.753334359.1576909106.631155653.36516716098.2758710274.66594571.54669139152.35488641750.2085641750.2085604.175438416098.27587201000
100
77478Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson61,88055.049.649.1719.5313.7307.97LABLAB34058.7523269.64019216746.688366651.6742664676.266652714.4825343148.61529212028.0082111034.084355099.6879132748.35623634058.75234058.7520012028.00821201000
Loading...
 
 
 
current