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1 | Note: This is not every source cited in WRR. It is the exhaustive list of specific, numeric call outs of rural-urban differences in public opinion. Other data sources, used in WRR to more generally explain a topic (e.g., limited ballot fraud, loss of jobs, home ownership) are neither included, nor contested. That is, I only document surveys used to support the "rage" thesis; I don't deny that economic and social issues are present in rural communities. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Page | Claim | Source/URL | Total Sample Size | Number of Rural Residents | Definition of Ruralness | Weighting Strategy | Comment | |||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 9 | 61 percent rural "advise teens to move away" | https://www.iss.nl/sites/corporate/files/2018-03/ERPI%20CP%2064_Ulrich-Schad%20and%20Duncan.pdf | 2,005 | 2,005 | metro/non-metro | Sample comes from 38 counties in 12 U.S. states, with no disclosure of geography for "confidentiality" reasons | No comparison outgroup | |||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 17-20 | I forgo cataloging all the citations here, since they are duplicative of specific claims made later in the book, with two exceptions below | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 18 | Rural whites are most likely to believe the 2020 election was stolen form Donald Trump | https://www.prri.org/research/competing-visions-of-america-an-evolving-identity-or-a-culture-under-attack/ | 2,508 | Not disclosed | IPSO Knowledge panel uses within MSA/outside of MSA | National sample confimed in sampling and weighting documentation. | Majority of rural residents excluded from rural sample calculation; no ability to compute MOE for geographic subgroups do to faulty disclosure | |||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 19 | "rural whites quicker to excuse of jusitfy January 6 violence" | https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21048255/210188-nbc-news-august-poll-8-24-21-release.pdf | 1,000 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 19 | More likely to say Donald Trump to be reinstated as president after January 2021 | https://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/CPOST-NORC_UnderstandingInsurrectionSurvey_JUN2021_Topline.pdf | 1,070 | Not disclosed | No inclusion of any rural characteristic | National with some attempt to mirror "geographic population distributions." | random sample (same process used by NORC and at UChicago so seems legit) | |||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 19 | Rural Residents are more likely to favor violence over democratic deliberation | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/race-and-white-rural-consciousness/6FD5BD8576AD7D448E162EC181867E0D | 122 | Wisconsin | Sample of Wisconsin Towns | None | NB: I cannot actually find anywhere in the cited article where issues of democratic deliberation or violence are mentioned. This citation is inaccurate or misleading. | |||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 36 | 61 percent rural residents favor jobs in new employment | https://files.kff.org/attachment/The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural | Contains small samples for urban-rural comparison. Just 303 urban respondents and 307 suburban respondents. | |||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 90 | only 33 percent of candidates would end gerrymandering | https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/01/18165343/2201075_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_SH.pdf | 2,005 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National | ||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 104 | 25 percent of rural said they would leave compared to 43 percent of urban | https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/12/PSDT_12.16.21_covid.community.topline.pdf | 9,676 | 2,299 | Self-identification | Census region x Metro/Non-metro | Quotas established at rural zip code level (127 or fewer households per square mile), which seems low. Analysis of raw data suggests high quality demographic comparability to known rural demographic estimates. | |||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 162 | Rural favors muslim travel ban higher by 15 points | https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/533027 | 1,511 | Not discloseed | metro/non-metro | National Weights | ||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 162 | Majorites "somewhat" or "very" bad for society to recognize gay marriages | https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/ | 6,251 | 2,085 | Self-identification | Census region x Metro/Non-metro | Quotas established at rural zip code level (127 or fewer households per square mile), which seems low. Analysis of raw data suggests high quality demographic comparability to known rural demographic estimates. | |||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 162 | Rural whites rate gays and lesbians 13 points lower than urban whites | https://electionstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/anes_timeseries_2020_methodology_userguidecodebook_20210719.pdf | 8,280 | 1115 | Self-identification | National Weights | Academic source cited, but original source is ANES | |||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 162 | 24 point gap between urban and rural on thermometer ratings of BLM | https://electionstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/anes_timeseries_2020_methodology_userguidecodebook_20210719.pdf | 8,280 | 1115 | Self-identification | National Weights | ||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 162 | LGBTQ youth -- 49 percent rural say unaccepting vs. 26 percent suburban/urban | https://www.thetrevorproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/The-Trevor-Project_-Rural-LGBTQ-Youth-November-2021.pdf | 34,759 | Not disclosed | Self-identification | Quotas and trimmed responses for "response consistency" | Note that the report also shows substantial similarity in youth mental health attributes in the report, indicating selective data selection: https://www.thetrevorproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/The-Trevor-Project_-Rural-LGBTQ-Youth-November-2021.pdf | |||||||||||||||||||||
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18 | 164 | rual Americans say"Democrats pander to racists" | https://actionnetwork.org/user_files/user_files/000/059/832/original/RuralObjective_toplines.pdf | 2,149 | 2,149 | Not defined in methods statement | Only residents from Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin | States not chosen for rural representivity by campaign strategy | |||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 165 | 49 percent rural agree that "immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents." | https://files.kff.org/attachment/The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural-specific weights applied | ||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 165 | 57 percent rural "growing number of newcomers threatens traditional American customs and values." | https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/ | 6,251 | 2,085 | Self-identification | Census region x Metro/Non-metro | Quotas established at rural zip code level (127 or fewer households per square mile), which seems low. Analysis of raw data suggests high quality demographic comparability to known rural demographic estimates. | |||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 166 | 60 percent of rural Americans support building a wall | https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PRRI-Oct-2021-AVS.pdf | 2,508 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National | ||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 167 | twelve of thirteen immigration questions posed rural Americans expressed greater anti-immigrant sentiments | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2008.00440.x | 1888 | Not disclosed | Uses Non-MSA (minority or rural population) to define rural residenece | Likely U.S. voters with telephone; national weights | Note that attempt to replicate with GSS 10 years after academic study, data find different conclusions: https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1008&context=sociology_pub | |||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 168 | 42 percent say Americans live in community in which they grew up | https://files.kff.org/attachment/The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural-specific weights applied | Used to prove hostility toward out-groups. Okay? | |||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 168 | Rural Americans most likely to say they have few if any friends of different races | https://files.kff.org/attachment/The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural-specific weights applied | ||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 168 | Less likely to hold passport or travel abroad | 2015 American Communites Project Report; data no longer on ACP website | unable to verify data source. Updated analysis by same author uses data from Market Research frim MRI Simmons. No rural definition provided in public documentation. https://www.americancommunities.org/who-owns-a-passport-in-america/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 172 | PRRI surveyed Americans to determine who subscribes to one in three major QAnon conspiracies | https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Topline-IFYC-PRRI-Survey-on-Religion-and-COVID-19-Vaccine-Trust-v2_final.pdf | 5,625 | Not disclosed | IPSOS uses MSA/Non-MSA, so assumption this carries to this poll | National | ||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 173 | 49 percent of rural Americans believe the QAnon theory that a "deep state" network is working to undermine Donald Trump | https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-12/topline_npr_misinformation_poll_123020.pdf | 1115 | Not disclosed | IPSOS uses MSA/Non-MSA, so assumption this carries to this poll | National | Poll also shows that 71 percent of Republicans believe claim. Rural or Republican? | |||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 173 | Report of a model to show rural are one and a half times more likely to believe QAnon. The PRRI report presents odds ratios, which means that living in a rural area increases the likelihood by just 30 percent. On the exact same page, model output suggests that, compared to White Americans, being Black increases the likelihood of believing in QAnon by 90 percent! True for all racial groups... weird results like this make me skeptical that something has been misspecified, or question error. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 174 | 47 perecent of rural Americans beleive election was stolen | https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PRRI-Oct-2021-AVS.pdf | 2,508 | Not disclosed | IPSOS uses MSA/Non-MSA, so assumption this carries to this poll | National | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 174 | 33 percent of rural residents are election deniers | https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/new-survey-data-election-information/ | 2002 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National | Methods statement says consultation with Morning Consult. | |||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 174 | 43 percent rural "trust our elections to be conducted fairly and accurately counted" | https://uchicagopolitics.opalstacked.com/uploads/homepage/IOP-Poll-Topline.pdf | 1000 | 220 | Not defined | National Voters | Notably, by ZIP code geography, only 140 respondents live in rural ZIP code | |||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 176 | Report of statistic from academic report showing 14 point increase in birtherism from Trump comment | https://www.wpsanet.org/papers/docs/Birthers.pdf | 1000 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National Voters | Just to note that in this academic paper, the author does not control for ruralness/geography, nor even include the word "rural" anywhere in the paper | |||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 176 | Republicans more likely to beleive Obama is a Muslim supported Trump | https://news.gallup.com/poll/147530/obama-birth-certificate-convinces-not-skeptics.aspx | 1000 | Not disclosed | Not defined | National Voters | Although claim in the book is not about rural people (and just Republican), including to show that reliance on this would be problematic. | |||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 177 | Rural voters are most likely to be birthers. Public Policy surveyed voters in North Carolina and Virginia | https://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/birthers-very-much-rural-phenomenon.html | Not disclosed | Not disclosed | Self-identification | Only Virginia and North Carolina | Also point out the well-known partisan lean of this organization | |||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 177 | Unfortunately, in their analyses of the American National Election Survey, political scientists... | https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00027162211070061#bibr2-00027162211070061 | 8,280 | 1115 | Self-identification | National Weights | The third tab of this spreadsheet further considers the claims made in the footnote that explains this finding in the journal article. Hereis the full footnote from the report: According to our analysis of the 2020 ANES, 16 percent of rural people answered that it was “not important at all” to allow news organizations to criticize political leaders, while just 8 percent of urban people did. Sixty-four percent of urban respondents said it was “very” or “extremely” important for news organizations to be able criticize political leaders, relative to just 46 percent of rural people. About one quarter of rural and 14 percent of urban people favored restricting the press’s access to government decision making, while 58 percent of urban people and 45 percent of rural dwellers opposed such action. Forty-two percent of rural people answered that it would be either helpful or okay if the president did not have to worry about the courts or Congress in acting to solve the nation’s problems, compared to just 33 percent of urban respondents. | |||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 178 | 41 percent rural people concerned about ineligible voting | https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/July-2_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202106031327.pdf | 1115 | 167 | Not Disclosed | National Weights | Same poll as below, but with national averages emphasized; overall margin of error is ±4.2. Also, just for record, 74% of big city residents think that voters should" be required to show government-issued photo identification whenever they vote," statistically equivalent to the 80% of rural voters. | |||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 179 | 58 percent rural people worried about non-existent voter fraud | https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/July-2_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202106031327.pdf | 1115 | 167 | Not Disclosed | National Weights | ||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 179-186 | Just a general comment on this entire section, which "proves" some of the most tantalizing conclusions about rural voters. Over and over, Schaller and Waldman depend the well-known "ecological" fallacy to support their most provocative claims. So they write, because authoritarianism predicted support for Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries, and rural residents support Trump, rural residents are the most likely to be authoritarian (p. 179). Or, in a lengthy aside on “Christian nationalism” they string together that fact that because white evangelicals are most likely to support Christian nationalist beliefs and because 43 percent of rural residents identify as evangelical, the hotbed of Christian nationalism is in rural communities (p. 183). Perhaps the most egregious form of guilt-by-association comes in a weakly sourced analysis of who supports “constitutional sheriffs.” Not a single study of public opinion is even cited in that section (p. 186). Anecdotes abound. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 180 | Another ecological fallacy: support for Trump highest in rural America, authoritarianism predicts Trump support (on average) | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/abs/who-decides-when-the-party-doesnt-authoritarian-voters-and-the-rise-of-donald-trump/8751AFAC70288BD234A8305F4687B1C7 | 1,800 | Not Disclosed | Not Disclosed | National Quotas | Data and methods reported in gated article. The word "rural" is never once used in the article and does not appear in any of the controls | |||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 182 | 3/5ths white evangelicals say name "chirstian nationalism" fits them well or very well | https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/PRRI-Jan-2023-Christian-Nationalism-Final.pdf | 6,212 | Not Disclosed | IPSOS uses MSA/Non-MSA, so assumption this carries to this poll | National Weights | Please note that the words "rural" or any from of geography are not mentioned anywhere in this report or the accompanying top-line questionaire | |||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 182 | 57% evangelicals believe one must be Christian to be truly American | https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/02/Pew-Research-Center-National-Identity-Report-FINAL-February-1-2017.pdf | 1005 | Not Disclosed | Not Disclosed | National Weights | In the raw data file (which includes global responses), it appears that some respondents were asked about their location, but only if contacted via a landline. This includes 53 rural residnets or 20% of the landline population. I would never use such a small sample to drive one of my conclusions, but just for fun, the raw data do show that 41% of urban identifers agree that to be truly American one must be a Christian...the same percent (41) as rural Americans. An analysis on "density code" demonstrates the exact non-relationship, but among 1,003 respondents. | |||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 183 | Another ecological fallacy about rural voters (please note that this entire section on religion does not report a SINGLE datapoint about rural peoples: more than half of white evangelicals - higher than any other religious identity - believe the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump | https://www.prri.org/research/challenges-in-moving-toward-a-more-inclusive-democracy-findings-from-the-2022-american-values-survey/ | 2523 | Not Disclosed | IPSOS uses MSA/Non-MSA, so assumption this carries to this poll | National Weights | The word "rural" never appears in the report or topline methodology statement | |||||||||||||||||||||
43 | 192 | Rural Americans most likely agree (35) need to take up arms against government | https://uchicagopolitics.opalstacked.com/uploads/homepage/IOP-Poll-Topline.pdf | 2043 | Not Disclosed | Not defined | National Voters | This is not the same poll as above. These data come from a year earlier (September 24-27, 2021), and the topline estimates are not ever made available on what percentage of the sample comes from a rural community. More important, the authors use of this report undermines the conclusions of CPOST on the dangers of not taking mainstream, non-rural insurrectionists. Indeed, the conclusion from actual CPOST report accompanying poll models out rurality and comes to this conclusion: “The more rural the county, the lower the county rate of sending insurrectionists.” A similar question does appear on IOP poll #220265 but with N=1,000 rural/urban averages are statistically the same | |||||||||||||||||||||
44 | 200 | 78 percent rural whites believe other rural citizens share values; 64 percent of Latinos; 55 percent African American rural residents | https://files.kff.org/attachment/The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural-specific weights applied | The inference here is odd. So, white rural people are saying their values are more shared. Specifically, agree to the statement that "People who live in rural areas and small towns have values that are very similar to yours." If ruralness is exclusive to whiteness, why do majorities of non-white rural residents actually agree? Please note, too, that subsample ethnic comparisons are tough in this sample of 1,000 rural respondents. Only 8 percent (N=80) respodnets are Black Non-Hispanic, and 8 percent (N=80) are Hispanic. Statistical differences likely exist for White-Black comparisons but not White-Hispanic. Concerns about representivity of N=80 also concerning. | |||||||||||||||||||||
45 | 234 | 68 percent rural say Medicaid important to their communities | https://files.kff.org/attachment/Report-The-Health-Care-Views-and-Experiences-of-Rural-Americans | 1,700 | 1,000 | Appears to be county-level estimates. From methods statement, rural includes "counties that fall outside metropolitan areas such as Brunswick, Va. (population 16,243) to counties near population centers with up to 250,000 residents such as Augusta, Va. (population 74,997), close to Charlottesville and the University of Virginia. Urban residents live in counties that are part of major cities with populations of at least 1 million, while suburban counties include all those in between." | Rural-specific weights applied | Not reported in usual topline. Shows no discernable rural-urban difference. Fact must exist just to point out how stupid rural people must be by "voting against their interests. | |||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 254 | For example, according to a 2018 pew research center survey, 46 percent of White rural citizens say they value diversity in their communities | https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/05/22/what-unites-and-divides-urban-suburban-and-rural-communities/ | 6,251 | 2,085 | Self-Identification | Census region x Metro/Non-metro | Unclear how this number is calculated. The topline report shows that a majority of rural residents thought it was very important or somewhat important to "live in a community that is racially and ethnically diverse." See page 5 of: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2018/05/Pew-Research-Center-Community-Type-topline-for-release.pdf | |||||||||||||||||||||
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