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GiveWell estimates of expected increases in immunization coverage for New Incentives coverage monitoring
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Survey plans in Katsina and Jigawa states
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Baseline survey, Katsina and JigawaSeptember 2021
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Age group for surveys6-12 months
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Characteristics of survey cohort at 12-month follow up
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Proposed timing of 12-month follow upSeptember 2022
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% of expansion LGAs where NI will start operation in November 202150%
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% of expansion LGAs where NI will start operation in January 202250%
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% of survey age range at 12-month follow up born after start of program, November group67%
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% of survey age range at 12-month follow up born after start of program, January group33%
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% of survey age range at 12-month follow up born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations)0%
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Characteristics of survey cohort at 18-month follow up
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Proposed timing of 18-month follow up March 2023
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% of survey age range born after program start100%
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% of survey age range born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations), November group67%
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% of survey age range at born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations), January group33%
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Average % of survey age range born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations)50%
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Characteristics of survey cohort at 24-month follow up
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Proposed timing of 24-month follow upSeptember 2023
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% of survey age range at 24-month follow up born after program start100%
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% of survey age range at 24-month follow up born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations)100%
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RCT inputs
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RCT effect size, BCG (pp increase)0.16
Based on unadjusted self-reported immunization rates
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RCT effect size, Penta 1 and associated vaccines (pp increase)0.21
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RCT effect size, Measles 1 (pp increase)0.14
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% control group receiving BCG within +/- 1 month of recommended age0.66
Children who received BCG outside of New Incentives aren't eligible for enrollment into New Incentives and receiving incentives for later vaccines.
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% control group receiving Penta 1 within +/- 1 month of recommended age0.68
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% control group receiving Measles 1 within +/- 1 month of recommended age0.53
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Recommended age for BCG (months)0
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Recommended age for Penta 1 and associated vaccines (months)1.5
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Recommended age for Measles 1 (months)9
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What effect size (increase in vaccination coverage since baseline) do we expect at the 12-month follow up?
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1. Effect size for survey cohort born after the start of the program
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Ramp-up adjustment: how much is the effect attenuated in the first 6 months due to program ramp-up? 25%
A guess. New Incentives' program takes ~6 months to fully ramp up, and it's unlikely to reach its full potential impact during this period.
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% of group born before program is fully ramped up100%
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Estimated effect size for BCG, group born after NI start (pp increase)0.12
Based on adjusted RCT results
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Estimated effect size for Penta 1 and associated vaccines, group born after NI start (pp increase)0.16
Based on adjusted RCT results
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Estimated effect size for Measles 1, group born after NI start (pp increase)0.11
Based on adjusted RCT results; no adjustments for differences in timely vaccination
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Average estimated effect size across vaccines, group born after NI start (pp increase)0.13
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2. Effect size for survey cohort with partial exposure to New Incentives' program
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Month of life for partially exposed survey group when New Incentives' programs starts1-4 months
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Percent of the population that remains unvaccinated for BCG when New Incentives' program begins and is thus eligible for program enrollment53%
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Adjustment to account for those who delay vaccination being more likely to respond to the incentive1.5
An uncertain guess. It seems likely that always-takers are more likely to be vaccinated on schedule, and that relatively more incentive-driven households may remain eligible for NI at the program start date, making attenuation of the effect size less than proportional to the ineligible % of the population.
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Adjusted multiplier on potential effect sizes for partially exposed survey group80%
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Estimated effect size for BCG, partially exposed survey group (pp increase)0.10
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Estimated effect size for Penta 1 and associated vaccines, partially exposed survey group (pp increase)0.13
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Estimated effect size for Measles 1, partially exposed survey group (pp increase)0.08
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Average estimated effect size across vaccines, partially exposed survey group (pp increase)0.10
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Expected effect sizes at 12-month follow up: combined across entire survey age range
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Percentage of survey group born before the program started50%
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Percentage of survey group born since the program started50%
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Estimated effect size for BCG at 12-month follow up (pp increase)10.8%
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Estimated effect size for Penta 1 and associated vaccines at 12-month follow up (pp increase)14.2%
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Estimated effect size for Measles 1 at 12-month follow up (pp increase)9.5%
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Average estimated effect size across vaccines at 12-month follow up (pp increase)11.5%
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What effect size could we expect to obtain on vaccinations at 18-month follow up?
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% of survey age range at 18-month follow up born after the program starts100%
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Average % of survey age range at 18-month follow up born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations)50%
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Ramp-up adjustment: how much is the effect attenuated in the first 6 months due to program ramp-up? 25%
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Estimated effect size for BCG at 18-month follow up (pp increase)14.0%
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Estimated effect size for Penta 1 and associated vaccines at 18-month follow up (pp increase)18.4%
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Estimated effect size for Measles 1 at 18-month follow up (pp increase)12.3%
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Average estimated effect size across vaccines at 18-month follow up (pp increase)14.9%
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What effect size could we expect to obtain on vaccinations at 24-month follow up?
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% of survey age range at 24-month follow up born after the program starts100%
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Average % of survey age range at 24-month follow up born after program ramp-up (6 months of operations)100%
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Estimated effect size for BCG at 24-month follow up (pp increase)16.0%
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Estimated effect size for Penta 1 and associated vaccines at 24-month follow up (pp increase)21.0%
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Estimated effect size for Measles 1 at 24-month follow up (pp increase)14.0%
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Average estimated effect size across vaccines at 24-month follow up (pp increase)17.0%
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