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2 | Overall Statistics on Artisan's Energy | |||||||||||||||||
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4 | The first thing I was interested in is, for the 40.7 billion suimulations, how many times did we get 100% Artisan's Energy (engaged the pity-system). Below are the results, note that this is | |||||||||||||||||
5 | across all simulations, so base rates as well as every possible enhancment material combination. | |||||||||||||||||
6 | ||||||||||||||||||
7 | to +7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 15 | |||||||||||||
8 | # of Simulations that Hit Max Artisan's Energy | 5352528 | 25249002 | 77596613 | 972767367 | 1167507527 | ||||||||||||
9 | % of Simulations that Hit Max Artisan's Energy | 0.20% | 0.92% | 2.84% | 5.99% | 7.18% | ||||||||||||
10 | ||||||||||||||||||
11 | As expected, the later upgrades with lower base rates are where we hit the pity-system the most. Also going back to the point from the welcome sheet, it is a notable percentage, which | |||||||||||||||||
12 | means ALOT of failed upgrades. Of the 40.7 billion simulations run, we hit the pity-system on 5.53% of them. | |||||||||||||||||
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15 | Overall Statistics on Base Upgrades | |||||||||||||||||
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17 | Here are some overall statistics from the individual base rate analyses you will find in the following sections. These statistics are based on only the simulations done using the base | |||||||||||||||||
18 | upgrade rates (no enhancement materials). So the appropriate way to interpret these numbers is to say "these statistics describe what I expect to happen if I upgraded all my gear | |||||||||||||||||
19 | starting at +6 and ending at +15 never using any enhancment materials. I have layed this out into three catagories, the most lucky player's experience, the average player's experience, | |||||||||||||||||
20 | and the most unlucky player's experience. As should be obvious, neither extreme will happen, and if it does it didn't and you are lying :) | |||||||||||||||||
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23 | The Most Lucky Player | The Average Player | The Most Unlucky Player | |||||||||||||||
24 | ||||||||||||||||||
25 | Fails 0 times | Fails 146 times. | Fails 486 times. | |||||||||||||||
26 | Probability of | 2.2182E-34 | % | Probability of 50% | Probability of | 2.5475E-71 | % | |||||||||||
27 | 1 in every | 4.508E+33 | people | 1 in every 2 players | 1 in every | 3.925E+70 | people | |||||||||||
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31 | From +6 to +7 | |||||||||||||||||
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33 | Here are the statistics for upgrading from +6 to +7 if you do not use any enhancment materials. | |||||||||||||||||
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36 | The base success rate is 60% and the adjusted success rate is | 63.18% | ||||||||||||||||
37 | Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is | 1.58 | ||||||||||||||||
38 | Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade | 0.58 times | ||||||||||||||||
39 | ||||||||||||||||||
40 | ||||||||||||||||||
41 | Number of attempts | Number of Simulations | Percentage of Simulations | Cumulative Percent | ||||||||||||||
42 | 1 | 2998854 | 60.0% | 60% | ||||||||||||||
43 | 2 | 1321487 | 26.4% | 86% | ||||||||||||||
44 | 3 | 489086 | 9.8% | 96% | ||||||||||||||
45 | 4 | 148533 | 3.0% | 99% | ||||||||||||||
46 | 5 | 42040 | 0.8% | 100% | ||||||||||||||
47 | ||||||||||||||||||
48 | This number highlighted in green is the percentage of people hitting the pity-system. | |||||||||||||||||
49 | ||||||||||||||||||
50 | The way to understand the cumulative percent is "by this number of attempts, cumulative percent of people | |||||||||||||||||
51 | have achived their upgrade" | |||||||||||||||||
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56 | ||||||||||||||||||
57 | From +7 to +8 | |||||||||||||||||
58 | ||||||||||||||||||
59 | Here are the statistics for upgrading from +7 to +8 if you do not use any enhancment materials. | |||||||||||||||||
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61 | ||||||||||||||||||
62 | The base success rate is 45% and the adjusted success rate is | 49.30% | ||||||||||||||||
63 | Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is | 2.03 | ||||||||||||||||
64 | Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade | 1.03 times | ||||||||||||||||
65 | ||||||||||||||||||
66 | ||||||||||||||||||
67 | Number of attempts | Number of Simulations | Percentage of Simulations | Cumulative Percent | ||||||||||||||
68 | 1 | 2249614 | 45.0% | 45% | ||||||||||||||
69 | 2 | 1360717 | 27.2% | 72% | ||||||||||||||
70 | 3 | 750334 | 15.0% | 87% | ||||||||||||||
71 | 4 | 374565 | 7.5% | 95% | ||||||||||||||
72 | 5 | 166564 | 3.3% | 98% | ||||||||||||||
73 | 6 | 98206 | 2.0% | 100% | ||||||||||||||
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82 | ||||||||||||||||||
83 | From +8 to +9 (and +10 and +11) | |||||||||||||||||
84 | ||||||||||||||||||
85 | Here are the statistics for upgrading from +8 to +9 if you do not use any enhancment materials. | |||||||||||||||||
86 | These are the same rates as going to +10 and +11 as well. | |||||||||||||||||
87 | ||||||||||||||||||
88 | The base success rate is 30% and the adjusted success rate is | 35.49% | ||||||||||||||||
89 | Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is | 2.82 | ||||||||||||||||
90 | Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade | 1.82 times | ||||||||||||||||
91 | ||||||||||||||||||
92 | ||||||||||||||||||
93 | Number of attempts | Number of Simulations | Percentage of Simulations | Cumulative Percent | ||||||||||||||
94 | 1 | 1499732 | 30.0% | 30% | ||||||||||||||
95 | 2 | 1154797 | 23.1% | 53% | ||||||||||||||
96 | 3 | 843596 | 16.9% | 70% | ||||||||||||||
97 | 4 | 586325 | 11.7% | 82% | ||||||||||||||
98 | 5 | 383898 | 7.7% | 89% | ||||||||||||||
99 | 6 | 238758 | 4.8% | 94% | ||||||||||||||
100 | 7 | 292894 | 5.9% | 100% |