1
2
For details on methodology of coverage surveys, see http://www.givewell.org/node/2770#Coveragesurveys
3
Mathematical model for experimenting with coverage estimates (Note that the below model assumes the probability of receiving each round is independent of whether the child received other rounds)
-
4
2015 ACCESS-SMC coverage survey results
Child's probability of receiving a given round
88%
5
Country
Coverage of at least 1 round (either using proxy of having an SMC card or directly measured)
Coverage of at least 3 rounds
Coverage of all 4 rounds
Source
ACCESS-SMC's 2015 target population (subset of 3-59 month olds) for SMC
Source
Children 6-7yrs old who received SMC at least once
Source
ACCESS-SMC Country
Source
Average number of children treated
Source-
Population of children eligible for SMC, 2016
Source
Population targeted as % of children eligible
Source
Northern Nigeria coverage survey results (from 2 of the 4 districts where Malaria Consortium worked in 2014)
Total number of rounds
4
6
Burkina Faso96%84%69%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information. "Coverage surveys that were later conducted by the LSHTM indicate that around 84% of eligible children received at least 3 cycles of SMC, 69% received all 4 cycles with the remainder each receiving two cycles or less." Pg. 37, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
649,693
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
82%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
-
Burkina Faso104.73%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
680,433
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2016
-2,433,851
26.69%CalculationDistrict
Received at least one round of SMC
Received at least 3 rounds of SMC
Source-
7
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information. "However, coverage surveys conducted by LSHTM indicate that 82% of children received an SMC card (were reached), and around 60% of eligible children received at least 3 cycles and only 22.7% of the children (3 to 59 months) received the full four cycles, with the remainder each receiving three cycles or less." Pg. 41, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
275,000
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2017
85%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
-
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
265,354
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2017
----CalculationDutsi94.80%73.80%90.60%85.60%74.70%67.30%
See Table 5.3, Pg. 31, Malaria Consortium, Nigeria SMC evaluation report, 2014
-
Probability of receiving at least X rounds:
8
Guinea94%72%54%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
210,047
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2018
82%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
-
Guinea95.83%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
201,283
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2018
-426,279
See Table 5.3, Pg. 31, Malaria Consortium, Nigeria SMC evaluation report, 2015
-460%
9
Mali87%56%38%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information. "Coverage surveys that were later conducted by the LSHTM indicate that the reach of the SMC Programme in Mali has been good, with 86% of children having received an SMC card and at least one cycle of SMC; around 56% of eligible children received at least 3 cycles of SMC, 38% received all 4 cycles. Coverage of the first cycle appears to be highest at around 70%, with coverage at the final cycle in November having the lowest coverage at 50%. This implies that most children here received two cycles or less. This presumably shows that more children were reached than the coverage rate indicates but that many of them received less than the recommended four cycles." Pg. 51, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
809,638
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2019
17%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
-
Mali84.96%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
687,838
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2019
-2,982,007
27.15%CalculationCombined83.90%61.80%75%67.10%63.10%55.40%
See Table 5.3, Pg. 31, Malaria Consortium, Nigeria SMC evaluation report, 2016
-367%
10
Niger82%63%45%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information. "Coverage surveys that were later conducted by the LSHTM indicate that fewer than 50% of the children received the full four cycles, with the remainder each receiving three cycles or less. This presumably shows that more children were reached than the coverage rate indicates but that many of them received less than the recommended four cycles...According to the LSHTM coverage survey, in AguieĢ, 45% of eligible children received four cycles of SMC. In Madaoua, 43% of children received four cycles of SMC. In Zinder, 7% of eligible children received four cycles of SMC. In Maradi, 4% of eligible children received four cycles of SMC." Pg. 56, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
595,901
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2020
--
-
Niger69.97%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
416,973
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2020
-3,840,600
15.52%Calculation293%
11
Nigeria77%61%42%
See Pg. 1, ACCESS-SMC, Nigeria coverage summary report 2015.
792,133
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2021
61%
Pg. 1, ACCESS-SMC, Nigeria coverage summary report 2015
-
Nigeria99.41%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
787,467
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2021
-11,198,591
7.07%Calculation199%
12
The Gambia94%84%56%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information. "Coverage surveys that were later conducted by the LSHTM indicate that the reach of the SMC Programme in the Gambia has been excellent, with around 95% of children having received an SMC card and at least one SMC cycle, over 84% of eligible children received at least 3 cycles of SMC and only 56% of the children received the full four cycles, with the remainder each receiving three cycles or less. This presumably shows that of the children reached, many of them received less than the recommended four cycles." Pg. 66, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2016
90,925
Source: Table 1, Pg. 16, ACCESS-SMC multi-country cost analysis, August 2022
30%
ACCESS-SMC private coverage information
-
The Gambia84.91%
See Table 2, Pg. 18, Multi-country cost analysis ACCESS-SMC
77,208
Slide 17, ACCESS-SMC Presentation, "Progress in scale-up of SMC in the Sahel," November 2022
93,835
96.90%Calculation
13
14
Average (weighted by population targeted in each country)
87%66%46%Calculation
91%
Calculation. (This is total coverage as a % of all kids targeted in these countries.)
3,116,556Calculation
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