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Table 1.Estimates of consensus on human-caused global warming among climate experts.
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Total sample (including non-publishing climatologists)Sub-sample of publishing climatologists
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SourceYear(s)ConsensusNDescriptionConsensusNDescriptionDefinition of consensus
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Gallup (1991)199166 %400
AMS/AGU members
67 %97
Currently Performing Research in Area Global Warming
In your opinion, is human-induced greenhouse warming now occurring?
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Oreskes (2004)
1993–2003100 %928
Peer-reviewed papers on 'global climate change'
[M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations'
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Bray and von Storch (2007)
199640 %539
1997: 5 countries (US, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Italy)
Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes
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Bray and von Storch (2007)
200353 %530
2003: 30 countries
Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes
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Doran and Zimmerman (2009)
200982 %3146
Earth scientists
97 %77
Climatologists who are active publishers of climate research
Human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures
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Anderegg et al (2010)
201066 %1372
Signatories of public statements about climate change
97 %200
Top 200 most published authors (of climate-related papers)
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for 'most' of the 'unequivocal' warming of the Earth's average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century
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Bray (2010)200883.50 %370
Authors of climate journals, authors from Oreskes' (2004) sample, scientists from relevant institutes (NCAR, AMS, etc)
How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropogenic causes?
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Rosenberg et al (2010)
200588.50 %433
US climate scientists authoring articles in scientific journals that highlight climate change research
Scientists can say with great certainty that human activities are accelerating global warming
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Farnsworth and Lichter (2012)
200784 %489
AMS/AGU members
In your opinion, is human-induced greenhouse warming now occurring?
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Cook et al (2013)
1991–201197.10 %
4014 abstracts
Published peer-reviewed papers on 'global climate change' or 'global
1. Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of recent global warming
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97.20 %
1381 self-rated papers
warming' that state a position on AGW
2. Explicitly states humans are causing global warming
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3. Implies humans are causing global warming.
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4a. Does not address or mention the cause of global warming
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4b. Expresses position that human's role on recent global warming is uncertain/undefined
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5. Implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly
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6. Explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming
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7. Explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming
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Stenhouse et al (2014)
201373 %1821
AMS members
93 %124
Self-reported expertise is climate science, publication focus is mostly climate
Humans are a contributing cause of global warming over the past 150 years
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Verheggen et al (2014)
201284 %1461 (Q1)89% (Q1)623 (Q1)
Published more than 10 climate-related papers (self-reported)
Q1. Over half of global warming since the mid-20th century can be attributed to human-induced increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations
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86 %1682 (Q3)91% (Q3)729 (Q3)Q3. Greenhouse gases have made the strongest or tied-strongest contribution (out of different factors considered) to the reported global warming of ~0.8 °C since preindustrial times
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Pew Research Center (2015)
201587 %3748
AAAS members
93 %132
Working PhD Earth scientist
Climate change is mostly due to human activity
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Carlton et al (2015)
201491.90 %698
Survey of biophysical scientists across disciplines at universities in the Big 10 Conference
96.70 %306
Those who indicated that 'The majority of my research concerns climate change or the impacts of climate change.'
Response to the following: (1) When compared with pre-1800's levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant, and (2) Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
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