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Note: This CEA estimates the cost-effectiveness of Industrious Labs' aluminum campaign to secure a major corporate commitment to switch to low-carbon aluminum procurement. Please see our deep dive for commentary on this analysis. Last updated: 2023-01-26.
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Parameter (best guess)Parameter (pessimistic)Parameter
(optimistic)		Notes
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Cost
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Industrious labs annual budget, 2022$3,100,000$3,100,000$3,100,000Input
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% of budget devoted to aluminum campaign30%30%30%Guess, based on Industrious Labs splitting its 2022 budget among ~5 industries and (b) aluminum being representative of a relatively large focus compared to some other industries
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% of aluminum campaign budget devoted to corporate/industry commitments75%75%75%Guess, based on corporate commitments being a substantial focus of the overall campaign
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Length of campaign (years)333Guess, based on our qualitative assessment of the timelines associated with Industrious Labs' strategy
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Total intervention cost$2,092,500$2,092,500$2,092,500Calculation
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Effectiveness
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tCO2e per ton of primary aluminum produced161616Input
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Expected % reduction in tCO2e per ton of primary aluminum impacted by Industrious Labs80%80%80%Guess, based on ~70% reductions from renewable energy and additional process emissions reductions
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tCO2e avoided per ton of primary aluminum impacted by Industrious Labs131313Calculation
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Major automaker US effects
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US domestic primary aluminum supply (tons, annualized)880,000880,000880,000Input
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US domestic primary aluminum used by a major automaker (%)9%9%9%Input
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Tons of US primary aluminum used by major automaker80,08080,08080,080Calculation
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Increase in likelihood of major automaker committing to low-carbon aluminum due to Industrious Labs (percentage point)3%1%10%Guess
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Number of years Industrious Labs moves up major automaker's counterfactual switch to low-carbon aluminum555Guess
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tCO2e avoided due to Industrious Labs154,71551,572515,715Calculation
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Major automaker non-US effects
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Global primary aluminum production (tons, annualized)67,092,00067,092,00067,092,000Input
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% of primary aluminum consumed by global automotive sector18%18%18%Estimate, based on "automotive and transportation" statistics
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Of primary aluminum consumed by global automotive sector, % consumed by major automaker6%6%6%Estimate, based on median auto sales among top 15 global automakers. Assumes equivalent use of primary aluminum per vehicle produced.
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Global primary aluminum consumed by major automaker, excluding US consumption (tons, annualized)684,154684,154684,154Calculation
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Conditional on Industrious Labs success in major automaker US commitment, likelihood major automaker commits to global low-carbon aluminum (percentage point)50%10%90%Guess
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Number of years Industrious Labs moves up major automaker's counterfactual switch to low-carbon aluminum555Guess
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tCO2e avoided due to Industrious Labs660,89244,0593,965,354Calculation
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Global automotive effects
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% of non-major automaker global automotive sector targeted by Industrious Labs50%50%50%Guess, based on a large percentage of the automotive sector having very minimal interest and/or ability to switch to low-carbon aluminum
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Conditional on Industrious Labs success in major automaker US commitment, likelihood targeted global automakers commit to global low-carbon aluminum (percentage point)5%1%25%Guess, based on major automaker US's commitment serving as a small but meaningful nudge to strategically targeted automakers
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Number of years Industrious Labs moves up targeted automakers' counterfactual switch to low-carbon aluminum555Guess
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tCO2e avoided due to Industrious Labs588,52439,2359,808,738Calculation
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Global aluminum industry effects
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% of non-automotive global aluminum production targeted by Industrious Labs50%50%50%Guess, based on a large percentage of the aluminum industry having very minimal interest and/or ability to switch to low-carbon aluminum
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Conditional on Industrious Labs success in global automotive commitment, likelihood targeted global automakers commit to global low-carbon aluminum (percentage point)50%10%75%Guess, based on high likelihood that a global automotive low-carbon switch sets a new industry-wide standard
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Increase in likelihood of major automaker committing to low-carbon aluminum due to Industrious Labs (percentage points)0.1%0.001%1.9%Calculation. Not included in calculations, for illustrative purposes only
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Number of years Industrious Labs moves up targeted automakers' counterfactual switch to low-carbon aluminum101010Guess, based on aluminum industry being relatively slower to adopt low-carbon technology than automotive sector
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tCO2e avoided due to Industrious Labs2,644,28435,25766,107,089Calculation
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Results
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Total tCO2e avoided due to Industrious Labs4,048,415170,12380,396,897Calculation
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Cost-effectiveness
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$ per tCO2e based only on major automaker US effects$14$41$4Calculation
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$ per tCO2e based on major automaker US and major automaker non-US effects$3$22$0Calculation
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$ per tCO2e based on major automaker US, major automaker non-US, and global automotive effects$1.49$15.52$0.15Calculation
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$ per tCO2e based on major automaker US, major automaker non-US, global automotive, and global aluminum industry effects$0.52$12.30$0.03Calculation
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Carbon offset benchmark $ per tCO2e$17$17$17Input
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...is x times as cost-effective as offset benchmark321640Calculation
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Top recommendation benchmark $ per tCO2e$1$1$1Input
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...is x times as cost-effective as top recommendation benchmark1.90.138Calculation
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Percentage contributions
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Percentage of effectiveness due to major automaker US effects4%30%1%Calculation
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Percentage of effectiveness due to major automaker non-US effects16%26%5%Calculation
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Percentage of effectiveness due to global automotive effects15%23%12%Calculation
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Percentage of effectiveness due to global aluminum industry effects65%21%82%Calculation
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