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1 | NETHERLANDS CASE, WHY? Data availability; safe country so underestimation of benefits, replacement of fleet: average EU country (between high rollover countries and low rollover) | feedback -> dominique.demunck@gmail.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Results | Parameters future proof V0 equipment | Traffic model parameters | Economic parameters | ||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Cumulated NPV 2018 Costs -> 2040 | € 6,323,839,123 | Year of 99% replacement | 2040 | Investment cost V0 per car 2022 | € 2,000.00 | Avg distance/car/year evol | 1.02 | Year for NPV | 2018 | ||||||||||||||
4 | Cumulated NPV 2018 Benefits -> 2040 | € 63,365,632,929 | Year of 90% km replacement | 2038 | Price evolution tech V0 per yr | 94% | Max evol distance/car/year | 2 | (1 + Inflation) | 1.02 | ||||||||||||||
5 | Diff | € 57,041,793,805 | Reached reduction of car related fatalities | Max Effectiveness acc prev of blame without C-V2X | 70% | Total km evolution | 1.01 | (1+ Discount rate) | 1.04 | |||||||||||||||
6 | BCR (Benefits Costs Ratio) | 10.0 | Reached reduction of car related collisions in 2040 | 89.8% | Remaining C-2VX opportunity | 20% | Nb of new car reg/year evol | 0.9898 | Nb of regulated cars: | |||||||||||||||
7 | (some accidents will still occur, but impact will be hugely mitigated) | ->Part of "unavoidable accidents" | 10% | Perc. car related acc costs | 0.7 | Index | ||||||||||||||||||
8 | Year of introduction | Index | Maturity effectivity correction factor | Cost V0 equipment | Nb of new cars | Nb of regulated models sold | Discount factor to apply | Total investm cost NPV | Total (no equipment) costs of accidents NPV | Car releated acc costs NPV | Penetration rate LTE-V2X ped/cycl | Penetration rate C-V2X (km) | Succes rate vision zero equipment to avoid accident of own blame | Total nb of mil car kms | Correction increased mileage | Total nb of equiped milj kms | Perc kms | Investment Costs | Benefits | Diff | ||||
9 | 2022 | 1 | 0.7 | € 2,000.00 | 452909 | 90582 | 0.854804191 | € 154,859,435.63 | € 13,416,379,429.66 | € 9,391,465,600.76 | 0 | 0.009023370881 | 0.4912031161 | 118500 | 1.02 | 1069.269449 | 0.009023370881 | € 154,859,435.63 | € 41,625,867.13 | -€ 113,233,568.50 | ||||
10 | 2023 | 2 | 0.75 | € 1,917.60 | 448289 | 224145 | 0.8219271068 | € 353,280,622.03 | € 13,158,372,132.94 | € 9,210,860,493.06 | 0.08 | 0.03818188074 | 0.5354242508 | 119685 | 1.0404 | 4569.798396 | 0.03818188074 | € 353,280,622.03 | € 188,302,271.49 | -€ 164,978,350.54 | ||||
11 | 2024 | 3 | 0.8 | € 1,838.59 | 443717 | 443717 | 0.7903145257 | € 644,750,885.97 | € 12,905,326,515.00 | € 9,033,728,560.50 | 0.2 | 0.09928230691 | 0.5865709743 | 120881.85 | 1.061208 | 12001.42893 | 0.09928230691 | € 644,750,885.97 | € 526,089,295.88 | -€ 118,661,590.09 | ||||
12 | 2025 | 4 | 0.9 | € 1,762.84 | 439191 | 439191 | 0.7599178132 | € 588,347,731.29 | € 12,657,147,158.94 | € 8,860,003,011.26 | 0.3 | 0.175064618 | 0.6733419491 | 122090.6685 | 1.08243216 | 21373.75624 | 0.175064618 | € 588,347,731.29 | € 1,044,402,545.51 | € 456,054,814.22 | ||||
13 | 2026 | 5 | 0.92 | € 1,690.22 | 434711 | 434711 | 0.730690205 | € 536,878,754.96 | € 12,413,740,482.81 | € 8,689,618,337.96 | 0.42 | 0.2482733892 | 0.7051031186 | 123311.5752 | 1.104080803 | 30614.9827 | 0.2482733892 | € 536,878,754.96 | € 1,521,190,170.08 | € 984,311,415.12 | ||||
14 | 2027 | 6 | 0.95 | € 1,620.58 | 430277 | 430277 | 0.7025867356 | € 489,912,312.38 | € 12,175,014,704.29 | € 8,522,510,293.00 | 0.55 | 0.317217043 | 0.7439622724 | 124544.6909 | 1.126162419 | 39507.69858 | 0.317217043 | € 489,912,312.38 | € 2,011,291,226.55 | € 1,521,378,914.16 | ||||
15 | 2028 | 7 | 0.97 | € 1,553.81 | 425888 | 425888 | 0.6755641688 | € 447,054,519.50 | € 11,940,879,806.13 | € 8,358,615,864.29 | 0.6 | 0.3834081568 | 0.7701210876 | 125790.1378 | 1.148685668 | 48228.96489 | 0.3834081568 | € 447,054,519.50 | € 2,468,054,412.96 | € 2,020,999,893.46 | ||||
16 | 2029 | 8 | 0.99 | € 1,489.79 | 421544 | 421544 | 0.6495809316 | € 407,945,949.41 | € 11,711,247,502.17 | € 8,197,873,251.52 | 0.7 | 0.4437797109 | 0.7988372948 | 127048.0392 | 1.171659381 | 56381.34212 | 0.4437797109 | € 407,945,949.41 | € 2,906,209,877.76 | € 2,498,263,928.35 | ||||
17 | 2030 | 9 | 0.995 | € 1,428.41 | 417245 | 417245 | 0.6245970496 | € 372,258,618.09 | € 11,486,031,204.05 | € 8,040,221,842.83 | 0.8 | 0.5025231075 | 0.8168364143 | 128318.5196 | 1.195092569 | 64483.02123 | 0.5025231075 | € 372,258,618.09 | € 3,300,343,615.06 | € 2,928,084,996.96 | ||||
18 | 2031 | 10 | 1 | € 1,369.56 | 412989 | 412989 | 0.6005740861 | € 339,693,233.74 | € 11,265,145,988.59 | € 7,885,602,192.01 | 0.9 | 0.5596251936 | 0.8346166925 | 129601.7048 | 1.21899442 | 72528.37915 | 0.5596251936 | € 339,693,233.74 | € 3,683,148,151.51 | € 3,343,454,917.77 | ||||
19 | 2032 | 11 | 1 | € 1,313.14 | 408776 | 408776 | 0.5774750828 | € 309,976,686.74 | € 11,048,508,565.73 | € 7,733,955,996.01 | 0.95 | 0.6143711599 | 0.845249488 | 130897.7219 | 1.243374308 | 80419.7852 | 0.6143711599 | € 309,976,686.74 | € 4,016,219,437.60 | € 3,706,242,750.87 | ||||
20 | 2033 | 12 | 1 | € 1,259.04 | 404607 | 404607 | 0.5552645027 | € 282,859,759.27 | € 10,836,037,247.16 | € 7,585,226,073.01 | 0.97 | 0.6667151639 | 0.8535620219 | 132206.6991 | 1.268241795 | 88144.21104 | 0.6667151639 | € 282,859,759.27 | € 4,316,621,262.07 | € 4,033,761,502.80 | ||||
21 | 2034 | 13 | 1 | € 1,207.16 | 400480 | 400480 | 0.5339081757 | € 258,115,035.22 | € 10,627,651,915.48 | € 7,439,356,340.84 | 0.97 | 0.7179808429 | 0.8603974457 | 133528.7661 | 1.29360663 | 95871.09601 | 0.7179808429 | € 258,115,035.22 | € 4,595,654,072.05 | € 4,337,539,036.83 | ||||
22 | 2035 | 14 | 1 | € 1,157.43 | 396395 | 396395 | 0.5133732459 | € 235,534,992.95 | € 10,423,273,994.03 | € 7,296,291,795.82 | 0.97 | 0.7689302322 | 0.8671906976 | 134864.0537 | 1.319478763 | 103701.0482 | 0.7689302322 | € 235,534,992.95 | € 4,865,234,090.51 | € 4,629,699,097.56 | ||||
23 | 2036 | 15 | 1 | € 1,109.74 | 392352 | 392352 | 0.493628121 | € 214,930,264.94 | € 10,222,826,417.22 | € 7,155,978,492.06 | 0.97 | 0.8195304304 | 0.8739373907 | 136212.6943 | 1.345868338 | 111630.448 | 0.8195304304 | € 214,930,264.94 | € 5,125,242,650.10 | € 4,910,312,385.15 | ||||
24 | 2037 | 16 | 1 | € 1,064.02 | 388350 | 388350 | 0.474642424 | € 196,128,049.63 | € 10,026,233,601.51 | € 7,018,363,521.05 | 0.97 | 0.8696724542 | 0.8806229939 | 137574.8212 | 1.372785705 | 119645.0324 | 0.8696724542 | € 196,128,049.63 | € 5,375,038,690.20 | € 5,178,910,640.57 | ||||
25 | 2038 | 17 | 1 | € 1,020.18 | 384388 | 384388 | 0.4563869462 | € 178,970,662.25 | € 9,833,421,416.86 | € 6,883,394,991.80 | 0.97 | 0.9185200448 | 0.887136006 | 138950.5694 | 1.400241419 | 127628.8833 | 0.9185200448 | € 178,970,662.25 | € 5,608,949,579.75 | € 5,429,978,917.51 | ||||
26 | 2039 | 18 | 1 | € 978.15 | 380468 | 380468 | 0.4388336021 | € 163,314,212.34 | € 9,644,317,158.85 | € 6,751,022,011.19 | 0.97 | 0.9659205099 | 0.893456068 | 140340.0751 | 1.428246248 | 135557.3569 | 0.9659205099 | € 163,314,212.34 | € 5,826,182,903.34 | € 5,662,868,691.00 | ||||
27 | 2040 | 19 | 1 | € 937.85 | 376587 | 376587 | 0.4219553867 | € 149,027,397.11 | € 9,458,849,521.18 | € 6,621,194,664.82 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 141743.4759 | 1.456811173 | 141743.4759 | 1 | € 149,027,397.11 | € 5,945,832,809.01 | € 5,796,805,411.90 | ||||
28 | 2041 | 20 | 1 | € 899.21 | 372746 | 372746 | 0.4057263333 | € 135,990,400.16 | € 9,276,948,568.84 | € 6,493,863,998.19 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 143160.9106 | 1.485947396 | 143160.9106 | 1 | € 135,990,400.16 | € 5,831,489,870.38 | € 5,695,499,470.21 | ||||
29 | 2042 | 21 | 1 | € 862.17 | 368944 | 368944 | 0.3901214743 | € 124,093,886.73 | € 9,098,545,711.75 | € 6,368,981,998.23 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 144592.5197 | 1.515666344 | 144592.5197 | 1 | € 124,093,886.73 | € 5,719,345,834.41 | € 5,595,251,947.67 | ||||
30 | 2043 | 22 | 1 | € 826.64 | 365180 | 365180 | 0.3751168023 | € 113,238,086.70 | € 8,923,573,678.83 | € 6,246,501,575.18 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 146038.4449 | 1.545979671 | 146038.4449 | 1 | € 113,238,086.70 | € 5,609,358,414.51 | € 5,496,120,327.81 | ||||
31 | 2044 | 23 | 1 | € 792.59 | 361456 | 361456 | 0.3606892329 | € 103,331,957.90 | € 8,751,966,492.70 | € 6,126,376,544.89 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 147498.8294 | 1.576899264 | 147498.8294 | 1 | € 103,331,957.90 | € 5,501,486,137.31 | € 5,398,154,179.41 | ||||
32 | 2045 | 24 | 1 | € 759.93 | 357769 | 357769 | 0.3468165701 | € 94,292,422.58 | € 8,583,659,444.77 | € 6,008,561,611.34 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 148973.8177 | 1.608437249 | 148973.8177 | 1 | € 94,292,422.58 | € 5,395,688,326.98 | € 5,301,395,904.39 | ||||
33 | 2046 | 25 | 1 | € 728.62 | 354119 | 354119 | 0.3334774713 | € 86,043,670.68 | € 8,418,589,070.83 | € 5,893,012,349.58 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 150463.5559 | 1.640605994 | 150463.5559 | 1 | € 86,043,670.68 | € 5,291,925,089.92 | € 5,205,881,419.24 | ||||
34 | 2047 | 26 | 1 | € 698.60 | 350507 | 350507 | 0.3206514147 | € 78,516,524.04 | € 8,256,693,127.16 | € 5,779,685,189.01 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 151968.1914 | 1.673418114 | 151968.1914 | 1 | € 78,516,524.04 | € 5,190,157,299.73 | € 5,111,640,775.69 | ||||
35 | 2048 | 27 | 1 | € 669.82 | 346932 | 346932 | 0.308318668 | € 71,647,856.24 | € 8,097,910,567.02 | € 5,668,537,396.91 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 153487.8733 | 1.706886477 | 153487.8733 | 1 | € 71,647,856.24 | € 5,090,346,582.43 | € 5,018,698,726.19 | ||||
36 | 2049 | 28 | 1 | € 642.22 | 343394 | 343394 | 0.2964602577 | € 65,380,063.20 | € 7,942,181,517.65 | € 5,559,527,062.36 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 155022.7521 | 1.741024206 | 155022.7521 | 1 | € 65,380,063.20 | € 4,992,455,302.00 | € 4,927,075,238.80 | ||||
37 | 2050 | 29 | 1 | € 615.76 | 339891 | 339891 | 0.2850579401 | € 59,660,580.06 | € 7,789,447,257.70 | € 5,452,613,080.39 | 0.97 | 1 | 0.898 | 156572.9796 | 1.77584469 | 156572.9796 | 1 | € 59,660,580.06 | € 4,896,446,546.19 | € 4,836,785,966.13 | ||||
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