Role of human caused climate change

More severe or more likely to occur

"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame.

Kam et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S61-S65

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf

"Station-based observations and bias-corrected model simulations show that the frequency of short-term heat waves in central Europe has increased, albeit quantitative estimates of risk ratios differ considerably between methods."

Sippel et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S51-S56

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/11_central_europe_heat.pdf

"A heat wave swept across central Europe in summer 2015. Model experiments suggest that anthropogenic forcings were a major factor in setting the conditions for the development of the 2015 heat wave."

Dong et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S57-S62

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/12_europe_heat.pdf

Mitchell (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S70-S74

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/14_egypt_heat.pdf

"Anthropogenic warming contributed to the 2015 Ethiopian and southern African droughts by increasing El Niño SSTs and local air temperatures, causing reduced rainfall and runoff, and contributing to severe food insecurity."

Funk et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S75-S80

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/15_african_drought.pdf

Wehner et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S81-S86

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/16_india_pakistain.pdf

"The record-breaking heat over northwest China in July 2015 was linked directly to atmospheric general circulation indices and anthropogenic forcing. The latter increased the risk of extreme heat by three-fold."

Miao et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S97-S101

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/19_nw_china.pdf

"Human influence has very likely increased the probability of occurrence of the 2015 western China extreme summer temperature events by at least 3-fold and 42-fold for the highest daily maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.

Sun et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S102-S106

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/20_w_china_heat.pdf

"The persistent Japanese heat wave that occurred in early August 2015 was mainly attributed to intraseasonal disturbances including tropical cyclones. Anthropogenic warming contributed to an increase in the probability of occurrence.

Takahashi et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S107-S112

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/21_japan_heat.pdf

"El Niño and human-induced climate change have substantially increased the likelihood of rainfall deficits and high temperatures, respectively, in Indonesia such as those experienced in the drought conditions of July–October 2015."

King et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S113-S117

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/22_indonesia_heat.pdf

"Anthropogenic climate change was found to have a substantial influence on southern Australia’s extreme heat in October 2015. The relative influence of El Niño conditions was less clear."

Black et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S118-S121

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/23_australian_s_heat.pdf

"Using a seasonal forecasting framework for attribution, we find that half of the record heat anomaly across Australia in October 2015 can be attributed to increasing CO2, with much of the rest due to internal atmospheric variability."

Hope et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S122-126

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/24_australian_oct_ht.pdf

"Extreme winter sunshine in the United Kingdom, as observed in the record high 2014/15 season, has become more than 1.5 times more likely to occur under the influence of anthropogenic forcings."

Christidis et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S47-S50

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/10_uk_sunshine.pdf

"Anthropogenic activity has increased the risk of Australian heatwaves during late autumn similar to the 2014 event by up to 23-fold, compared to climate conditions under no anthropogenic influence."

Perkins & Gibson (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S154-S157

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"According to CMIP5 models, the risk of record annual mean warmth in European, northeast Pacific, and northwest Atlantic regions—as occurred in 2014—has been greatly increased by anthropogenic climate change."

Kam et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S61-S65

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate models indicates human influence has increased the chance of extreme hot springs in Korea such as the 2014 event by two to three times."

Min et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S95-99

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in January 2014 by at least 16%. The influence for Melbourne is less clear."

Black et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Climate model simulations for 2014 indicate anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of hot and very hot November days in Brisbane by at least 25% and 44% respectively."

King et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S141-S144

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"The Argentinian heat wave of December 2013 was likely caused in part by anthropogenic forcings. These forcings have increased the risk of such an event occurring by a factor of five."

Hannart, A. et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12),S41-45

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Record high September maximum temperatures over Australia arose from a combination of a strongly anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern, background warming, and dry and warm antecedent land-surface conditions."

Arblaster et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S37-S41

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"The record heat of 2013 across inland eastern Australia was caused by a combination of anthropogenic warming and extreme drought."

King et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S41-S45

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"CMIP5 simulations suggest that the extremely warm year observed over Australia and the far western Pacific during 2013 was largely attributable to human forcing of the climate system."

Knutson et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S26-30

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Anthropogenic climate change has caused a very large increase in the likelihood of extreme events such as the record Australia-wide average temperatures in September, spring, and the 2013 calendar year."

Lewis et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S31-S34

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Human activity has increased the risk of experiencing the hot Australian summer of 2012/13, as measured by simulated heat wave frequency and intensity, by two- and three-fold, respectively."

Perkins et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S34-S37

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Anthropogenic forcing played a substantial part in western Europe’s hot, dry summer in 2013. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were likely a factor in the large contrast with summer 2012."

Dong et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S62-S66

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Comparison based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest a discernible impact of anthropogenic forcing, with internal variability also being important."

Zhou et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S54-57

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Anthropogenic climate change played a significant role in increasing the probability of events such as the heat wave in Japan in 2013."

Imada et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S52-54

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"A comparison of observations and multiple global climate model simulations indicates that extreme hot summer temperatures in Korea have become 10 times more likely due to human influence."

Min et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S48-S51

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Our analyses of the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble suggest that the likelihood of extreme July temperature anomalies is greater in the current forcing than in the preindustrial forcing."

Diffenbaugh & Scherer (2013) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S6-S9

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

"Therefore, a cold December of –0.7°C is half as likely to occur in the 2000s when compared to the 1960s."

Massey et al., (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1057-S1059

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1

United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany and Switzerland

Van Oldenborgh et al., (2007) Climate of the Past, 3, 659-668

http://www.clim-past.net/3/659/2007/cp-3-659-2007.html

Stott et al., (2004) Nature, 432, 610-614

https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7017/full/nature03089.html

Rahmstorf & Coumou (2011) PNAS, 108 (44), 17905.

http://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/17905.abstract

Lewis et al., (2013) Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (14), 3705-3709

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/abstract

Sun et al., (2014) Nature Climate Change, 4, 1082-1085

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n12/full/nclimate2410.html

King et al., (2015) Environmental Research Letters, 10 (5), 54002

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002

Rupp et al., (2015) Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (7), 2392–2400

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062683/abstract

Fischer & Knutti (2015) Nature Climate Change, 5, 560-564

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n6/full/nclimate2617.html

"The difference in conclusion between these two papers illustrates the importance of specifying precisely what question is being asked in addressing the issue of attribution of individual weather events to external drivers of climate."

Otto et al., (2012) Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L04702

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL050422/abstract?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+unavailable+on+Saturday+01st+July+from+03.00-09.00+EDT+and+on+Sunday+2nd+July+03.00-06.00+EDT+for+essential+maintenance.++Apologies+for+the+inconvenience.

"The year 2014 broke the record for the warmest yearly average temperature in Europe...Each method shows a very strong anthropogenic influence on the event over Europe."

Uhe et al., (2016) Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (16), 8685–8693,

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069568/abstract?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+unavailable+on+Saturday+01st+July+from+03.00-09.00+EDT+and+on+Sunday+2nd+July+03.00-06.00+EDT+for+essential+maintenance.++Apologies+for+the+inconvenience.

Shiogama et al., (2014) JSTage:SOLA, 10, 122-126

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/10/0/10_2014-025/_article

"We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area."

Diffenbaugh et al., (2017) PNAS, 114 (19), 4881–4886

http://www.pnas.org/content/114/19/4881.abstract

Dole et al., (2011) Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L06702

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/tao.zhang/2010GL046582.pdf

"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame."

Kam et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S61-S65

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/2_gc_heat.pdf

"Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in January 2014 by at least 16%. The influence for Melbourne is less clear."

Black et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"The contribution of potential changes in circulation to the recent long-term warming in the United States, therefore, requires further research."

Cattiaux & Yiou (2013) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S10-S13

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

"The anthropogenic contribution to the extreme seasonal (MAM) warmth over the eastern United States can be estimated as about 35%, or in terms of risk, anthropogenic forcing leads to a factor of 12 increase in the risk of such an event according to our calculations."

Knutson et al., (2013) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S13-S17

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

"High interannual correlations between observed and analog temperatures confirm that the North Atlantic dynamics remains the main driver of European temperature variability, especially in wintertime."

Cattiaux et al., (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1054-S1057

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1

Trenberth et al., (2012) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, D17103

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JD018020/abstract

"[B]oth human influence and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought in Oregon and Washington: the contribution of SST anomalies was about twice that of human influence."

Mote et al., (2016) Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (20), 10,980–10,988

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069965/abstract?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+unavailable+on+Saturday+01st+July+from+03.00-09.00+EDT+and+on+Sunday+2nd+July+03.00-06.00+EDT+for+essential+maintenance.++Apologies+for+the+inconvenience.

King et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S113-S117

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/22_indonesia_heat.pdf

"Anthropogenic climate change and El Niño made small but significant contributions to increasing the likelihood of record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania. Atmospheric variability was the main contributor."

Karoly et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S127-S130

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/25_tasmania_precip.pdf

"Analysis results indicate that the 2015 extreme drought in western Canada was likely an outcome of anthropogenically influenced warm spring conditions and naturally forced dry weather from May to July."

Szeto et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S42-S46

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/9_canada_drought.pdf

Funk et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S75-S80

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/15_african_drought.pdf

"The 2014/15 snowpack drought resulted from exceedingly high temperatures notwithstanding normal precipitation—a drought type that may reoccur due to accelerated anthropogenic warming and aggravated by naturally driven low precipitation."

Fosu et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S19-S24

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/5_us_fire_drought.pdf

"Anthropogenic warming contributed to the 2014 East African drought by increasing East African and west Pacific temperatures, and increasing the gradient between standardized western and central Pacific SST causing reduced rainfall, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture."

Funk et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S77-S82

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Ensemble modelling of the East African 2014 long rains season suggests no anthropogenic influence on the likelihood of low rainfall but clear signals in other drivers of drought."

Marthews et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S83-S88

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"A combined modeling and observational study suggests that the persistent rainfall deficit during the 2014 rainy season in southern Levant was made more likely due to anthropogenic climate change."

Bergaoui et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S66-S70

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"For the 2013 New Zealand drought, evidence from a number of models suggests that the meteorological drivers were more favorable for drought as a result of anthropogenic climate change."

Harrington et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S45-S48

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"Overall these results agree with previous ones by Hoerling et al. (2012b), who found a tendency toward a drier Mediterranean for the period 1970–2010 in comparison with 1901–70, and that such a trend has been partially driven by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, although modulated by the NAO phase."

Trigo et al., (2013) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S41-S45

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

"It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region."

Shiogama et al., (2013) Atmospheric Science Letters, 14 (3), 170-175

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.435/abstract

"There is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought."

Wang et al., (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 2014GL059748

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract

"Although climate models generally suggest that Australia’s Millennium Drought was mostly due to multidecadal variability, some late-twentieth-century changes in climate modes that influence regional rainfall are partially attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse warming."

Cai et al., (2014) Journal of Climate, 3145-3168

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1

"This study shows that although low precipitation was the main driver of the WY 2014 drought conditions in California, temperature played an important role in exacerbating the drought."

Shukla et al, (2015) Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (11), 4384–4393

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063666/full

"In a new study published in PNAS, Diffenbaugh et al. now add weight to the accumulating evidence that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought in California."

Mann & Gleick (2015) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 (13), 3858-3859

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/13/3858

"We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century."

Diffenbaugh et al., (2015) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 (13), 3931-3936

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/13/3931.abstract

"[A] long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability."

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1

"Ensemble simulations of climate models demonstrate a robust increase in the dry and warm meteorological conditions seen during the 2009 SEPTP autumn drought due to anthropogenic global warming."

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0636.1

"Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability."

Otto, F. et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S35-S40

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Long-term SST warming trends did not contribute substantially to the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts. North Pacific SSTs were exceptionally warm, however, and coupled models indicate more frequent extreme precipitation."

Funk et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S11-S15

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the long-term warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects."

Wang & Schubert (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S7-S11

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"It is concluded that the extreme Great Plains drought did not require extreme external forcings and could plausibly have arisen from atmospheric noise alone."

Kumar et al., (2013) Geophysical Research Letters, 3440-3445

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50657/abstract

"It is interesting to note that while SST-driven simulations of the 2011 March–May (MAM) season clearly show the important role played by the warm western Pacific (Lyon and DeWitt 2012), and while the new CMIP5 SSTs exhibit substantial warming during the 1990s and 2000s, these increasing SSTs do not appear to produce corresponding large changes in evaporation or rainfall over eastern Africa."

Funk et al., (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1049-S1051

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1

"Of three identified proximate drought factors, climate change does not appear important for two. The third factor, western Pacific SSTs, exhibits a strong warming trend but attribution is an open question."

Barlow & Hoell (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S71-S76

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"Northeast Asia experienced a severe drought in summer 2014. Sea surface temperature forcing may have increased the risk of low precipitation, but model biases preclude reliable attribution to anthropogenic forcing."

Wilcox et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S105-S110

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"The record dry spell over Singapore–Malaysia was caused by the southward contraction of the intertropical convergence zone. Within present evidence, there is no clear attribution to climate change."

McBride et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S126-S130

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

Swain et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S3-S7

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

"The results indicate that non-ENSO SST variations substantially increased the risk of a dry event in 2012...It is worth noting, however, that the procedure used here does not necessarily indicate an anthropogenic attribution."

Funk et al., (2013) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S45-S48

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1

"Comparing these modeled distributions to the observed rainfall, no evidence was found for human influence on the 2010 short rains, with their failure being affected by La Niña."

Lott et al., (2013) Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (6), 1177-1181

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50235/abstract

"Quantitative attribution of the overall human-induced contribution since preindustrial times is complicated by the lack of a detected century-scale temperature trend over Texas."

Hoerling et al., (2013) Journal of Climate, 2811-2832

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1

"While we can provide evidence that the risk of hot and dry conditions has increased, we cannot say that the 2011 Texas drought and heat wave was "extremely unlikely" (in any absolute sense) to have occurred before this recent warming."

Rup et al., (2012) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., S1052-S1054

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1

"The results thus indicate that the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely and that the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes."

Cheng et al., (2015) Journal of Climate

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1

"Taking into account all modeling results, the probability of an event like the one in south Louisiana in 2016 has increased at least by a factor of 1.4 due to radiative forcing."

van de Wiel et al., (2017) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 897-921

http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/897/2017/hess-21-897-2017-discussion.html

"[W]e deduce an increase in the likelihood of extreme one-day precipitation but of a smaller magnitude than what would be expected in a warming world according to the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. For five-day extremes, we are unable to detect a change in likelihood."

Eden et al., (2016) Environmental Research Letters, 11 (12)

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009/meta

Burke et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S92-S96

http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/18_china_precip.pdf

"The collective effects of anthropogenic climate change and artificial pond drainage may have played an important role in producing the extreme flood that occurred during early summer 2014 on the southeastern Canadian Prairies."

Szeto, K. et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S20-S24

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"The risk of an extreme 5-day July rainfall event over Northland, New Zealand, such as was observed in early July 2014, has likely increased due to anthropogenic influence on climate."

Rosier et al., (2015) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S136-S140

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

"The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model analyses suggest that seasonal and annual mean precipitation extremes occurring during 2013 in north-central and eastern U.S. regions, while primarily attributable to intrinsic variability, were also partly attributable to anthropogenic and natural forcings combined."

Knutson et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S19-S23

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1

Singh et al., (2014) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S58-S61

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1