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1 | Method | Definition | Tools | Use in Migration Policy | Real-world Example | Link | Cluster A: What is the Main Cluster This Method Belongs To? | Cluster B: Does the Method Overlap with Any Other Cluster? | Maturity Score | Timezone of Prediction Score | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | Scenario Planning | Scenario planning is a strategic foresight method characterized by the creation and exploration of multiple plausible future scenarios. These scenarios are constructed to inform decision-making processes, considering a range of potential outcomes and their implications. | Scenario planning software, Microsoft Excel, stakeholder engagement tools. | Scenario planning can help policymakers anticipate various migration scenarios, such as sudden refugee influxes or long-term demographic shifts. It enables the development of responsive policies. | The Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) in collaboration with the Rabat Process Secretariat with a project that aimed to test a new tool, providing insights into the scenario-building process to facilitate strategic futures analysis for improved anticipation of change, identification of blind spots, effective planning on mixed migration, and enabling discussions on specific policy areas requiring further analysis, such as integrating a crisis scenario component. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | Environmental Scanning | Environmental scanning is a continuous monitoring and analysis method that focuses on the systematic observation of the external environment. Its purpose is to detect emerging trends, issues, and opportunities, allowing organizations to adapt and make informed decisions. | Mention, Google Alerts, social media analytics platforms, news aggregators. | Environmental scanning aids in the monitoring of migration trends, including factors driving migration and public sentiment. It informs policy adjustments to address changing circumstances. | Forced Migration Current Awareness is a service that scans open access reports & scholarly materials relating to refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and other forced migrants. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | Trend Analysis | Trend analysis is a data-driven approach that involves the examination of historical data and patterns to identify consistent tendencies and shifts. It aims to predict future developments, particularly within industries, markets, or specific domains. | Statistical software (e.g., Tableau, R), data visualization tools, machine learning techniques, and market research tools. | Trend analysis can be employed to track migration patterns and reasons for migration. It provides insights for crafting policies related to immigration, refugee resettlement, and border management. | The US National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2040 report reviews past editions, conducts extensive research and consultations, synthesizes findings, and incorporates feedback to refine the analysis of megatrends. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
5 | Weak Signal Analysis | Weak signal analysis is a method dedicated to the identification of early indicators of emerging trends, events, or disruptions. It focuses on unconventional data sources and expert opinions to detect signals that might be overlooked. | Weak signal detection algorithms, text mining software, expert opinion collection tools. | Weak signal analysis helps detect early indicators of potential migration crises or emerging migration trends, allowing policymakers to prepare and respond proactively. | The Foresight Company's “Thinking Out of the Box” project uses Weak Signals and Wild Cards for methodologies to understand the impact of current trends in future Europe, including demographic change and migration. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | Exploration-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
6 | Wildcards Analysis | Wildcards analysis explores extreme, low-probability scenarios with potentially high-impact consequences. This method encourages creative and unconventional thinking, envisioning situations that challenge conventional assumptions. | Creative brainstorming sessions, visual mapping tools (e.g., MindMeister), futures wheel for visualization. | Wildcards analysis explores extreme scenarios, such as unexpected large-scale migration events. It supports contingency planning and crisis management in migration policy. | The Center for Strategic Futures Singapore designed the Driving Forces (DF) deck to stimulate discussions on influential factors shaping the future in 2040 and their potential outcomes, including surprising game-changing events, without making predictions or covering all possibilities, serving as a starting point for understanding possible changes, testing policies and strategies, identifying research priorities, or promoting long-term thinking. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
7 | Futures-creative Models | Futures-creative models are imaginative thinking exercises that stimulate innovative solutions by exploring unconventional future scenarios. They encourage participants to envision and design alternative, often disruptive, futures. | Creative workshops, design thinking methodologies, futures artifacts, creative storytelling techniques. | Futures-creative models encourage innovative thinking in policy design, considering unconventional approaches to address migration issues and future challenges. | The Forum for the Future conducted a futures wheel exercise to analyze the potential ramifications of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, primarily focusing on interconnected systems and signal mapping to anticipate consequences and intervention opportunities | Source | Exploration-based Methods | | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
8 | Science Fiction Narratives | Science fiction narratives inspire creative thinking by exploring alternative worlds and scenarios. It involves the creation of fictional stories that serve as thought experiments, pushing the boundaries of conventional thinking. | Storytelling workshops, narrative analysis software (e.g., ATLAS.ti), science fiction literature. | Science fiction narratives can stimulate imaginative thinking in migration policy, encouraging policymakers to envision novel solutions and scenarios to address migration-related challenges. | This report from the UNHCR Innovation Service employs strategic foresight techniques such as signal mapping, causal layered analysis, and scenario archetypes, the report uses science fiction to reveal novel narratives and alternative scenarios that could effectively address refugee crises. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
9 | Delphi Method | The Delphi method is a structured expert judgment process that seeks consensus among a panel of experts. Through iterative surveys and controlled feedback, it harnesses expert opinions to make informed forecasts and decisions. | Online Delphi platforms (e.g., Delphi Decision Aid), survey and consensus-building tools, structured questionnaires. | The Delphi method gathers expert opinions on migration trends and challenges, aiding in the formulation of evidence-based migration policies and fostering consensus among experts. | This paper seeks to provide Bayesian immigration forecasts for seven European countries up to 2025, utilizing a combination of quantitative data and insights gathered through a two-round Delphi survey with migration experts from each country. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 4 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
10 | Expert Panels | Expert panels convene a diverse group of subject matter experts to provide insights, knowledge, and opinions on specific issues or future scenarios. They are instrumental in synthesizing expertise for informed decision-making. | Virtual meeting platforms (e.g., Zoom, MS Teams), consensus-building frameworks, expert panel facilitation tools, bibliometrics techniques | Expert panels, consisting of migration specialists, provide valuable insights and recommendations for crafting informed migration policies that consider diverse perspectives. | To create immigration projection assumptions, this study by the Government of Canada takes into account both short-term and long-term plausibility, analyzing recent trends, conducting a comprehensive literature review, and exploring arguments for increased or stabilized immigration, along with expert survey input, to develop a range of assumptions reflecting appropriate uncertainty levels. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | Expert Interviews | Expert interviews involve in-depth discussions with subject matter experts to gather specialized knowledge and insights. They are conducted using rigorous protocols and provide valuable qualitative data. | Interview protocols, transcription software (e.g., NVivo), qualitative data analysis tools. | Expert interviews facilitate in-depth discussions with migration experts, offering a nuanced understanding of migration issues and helping shape comprehensive policies. | FES Geneva, the IOM and Global Future collaborated on building four independent scenario teams composed of participants from civil society, academia, migrants, and various regions were brought together over an 18-month period to explore potential migration scenarios by 2030, resulting in the development of scenarios through workshops, webinars, and interviews with key individuals. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
12 | Narrative Interviews | Narrative interviews are a qualitative research method that explores and documents detailed personal experiences and perspectives. They employ structured interview guides and narrative analysis techniques to uncover rich narratives. | Qualitative interview guides, narrative analysis software, audio recording tools. | Narrative interviews can capture personal migration experiences, shedding light on the human aspect of migration and influencing policies related to refugee resettlement and integration. | The Mixed Migration Centre performed around 20,000 interviews conducted in 2021 and 2022 with migrants from various regions, indicates that while environmental factors are rarely the primary reason for migration (1-5% of respondents), 20-40% of individuals acknowledge their influence in their decision to move, primarily through their impact on safety and economic well-being, highlighting the nuanced nature of climate-related migration, with specific community and individual variations. | Source | Experience-based Methods | | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
13 | Focus Group Discussions | Focus group discussions engage small groups of participants in guided conversations. They are utilized to explore diverse perspectives and gather insights on specific topics, often in a qualitative research context. | Online focus group platforms (e.g., FocusVision, Qualtrics), facilitation guides, video conferencing tools. | Focus group discussions involve migrants, policymakers, and stakeholders, providing a platform to explore and understand various migration perspectives. The insights gained inform inclusive migration policies. | The Aligning Migration Management and the Migration-Development Nexus project performed an analysis of 104 focus group discussions in 26 MIGNEX research areas illuminating how people discuss migration, including their perceptions of reasons for migration, factors influencing their decisions to stay or leave, and their overall understanding of migration. | Source | Experience-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
14 | Participatory Action Research | Participatory action research is a collaborative approach to research and change. It involves stakeholders in the research process, addressing real-world issues and fostering co-creation of knowledge. | Collaborative research platforms, action research frameworks, participatory design tools. | Participatory action research engages migrants and communities in policy development, allowing them to co-create solutions and policies that address their unique needs. | European Union’s South-East Europe Programme conducted four workshops involving migrants/civil society representatives, experts, and decision makers to develop opposing scenarios using identified drivers. | Source | Experience-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | Backcasting | Backcasting is a method that begins with a desired future state and works backward to identify the steps and actions necessary to achieve that vision. It facilitates the development of a path to a preferred future. | Backcasting templates, future visioning workshops, strategic planning software. | Backcasting assists policymakers in setting ambitious migration policy goals and working backward to outline practical steps for achieving those objectives. | The paper by Rodriguez-Sanchez et al. (2023) analyses the causal effect of search and rescue interventions in the Mediterranean on the number of crossing attemps of migrants using causal inference and counterfactual modeling. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
16 | Cross-Impact Analysis | Cross-impact analysis is a systematic approach that assesses the interactions between various factors and scenarios. It uncovers potential outcomes by considering the interplay of critical variables. | Impact matrix tools, influence diagram software, decision analysis platforms. | Cross-impact analysis helps policymakers assess the potential interactions between migration policies and other factors like economic, environmental, and political changes. | An empirical study examining the cross-impact of socioeconomic development and migration in Russian regions, revealed that various migration types do not have a statistically significant cross-impact on regional socioeconomic development, with labor migration being more influenced by regional development compared to long-term migration types. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 4 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
17 | Horizon Scanning | Horizon scanning is the continuous monitoring and analysis of data to detect emerging trends, potential opportunities, and threats. It is a systematic method for staying informed about changes in the external environment. | Horizon scanning platforms (e.g., Horizon Scan), environmental monitoring software, trend analysis frameworks, bibliometrics techniques. | Horizon scanning in migration policy enables continuous monitoring of global events and trends that may impact migration, fostering adaptability and responsive policy-making. | The International Futures Programme (IFP) is the OECD's forward studies group, offering long-term strategic thinking and horizon scanning since 1990, addressing emerging policy issues and providing the Secretary-General with a flexible tool to tackle long-term and rapidly emerging global economic challenges, primarily funded by voluntary contributions and grants from various sources. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | Exploration-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
18 | Morphological Analysis | Morphological analysis is a structured brainstorming technique for exploring potential solutions to complex problems. It involves creating a matrix that systematically combines diverse attributes to generate innovative ideas. | Morphological analysis grids, structured brainstorming templates, morphological analysis software. | Morphological analysis can be used in designing migration policies that consider a wide range of factors, such as social, economic, and cultural aspects, for comprehensive and holistic approaches. | The paper critiques the prevailing focus on elite professional migrants in major global cities and asserts that skilled international migration has become a common middle-class activity, introducing a six-faceted lifestyle typology based on interviews with skilled British residents in Paris to highlight the increasing diversity and morphological complexity of this phenomenon. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
19 | System Dynamics Modeling | System dynamics modeling employs mathematical modeling to understand the behavior of complex systems over time. It is particularly useful for modeling dynamic systems and their feedback loops. | System dynamics software (e.g., Vensim, Stella), machine learning techniques, Statistical software (e.g., Tableau, R), causal loop diagramming tools, modeling platforms. | System dynamics modeling aids in understanding the dynamic nature of migration flows and their effects on host and origin countries, guiding the development of migration policies. | This article introduces a basic system dynamics model for migration, utilizing mathematical modeling to grasp the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems, with applications in engineering, policy analysis, and more. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
20 | Game Theory | Game theory is a formal framework for analyzing strategic interactions and decision-making among multiple rational actors. It is employed to predict and model behavior in competitive scenarios. | Game theory software (e.g., GAMS, NetLogo), decision tree analysis platforms, Nash equilibrium calculators. | Game theory can be applied to analyze strategic interactions between countries and migrants, aiding in the formulation of policies to manage migration and border security. | The article examines a game-theoretic model of undocumented immigration, highlighting the strategic interaction among firms, native labor, elected officials, and undocumented immigrants, revealing that border enforcement's impact is diminished due to strategic interactions and discussing the effects of labor market uncertainty on migration policy decisions made before or after market conditions are known. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | Exploration-based Methods | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
21 | Red Teaming | Red teaming is an adversarial approach to identify vulnerabilities, weaknesses, and hidden assumptions in a system, plan, or strategy. It simulates potential threats and challenges. | Red teaming methodologies and frameworks, simulation exercises, adversarial analysis guides. | Red teaming helps identify vulnerabilities in migration policies and border management by simulating adversarial actions, contributing to policy resilience. | This thesis explores the ways in which the United States' investment in southern border security has seen several failed programs, leading to concerns about wasted funding, with the latest initiative, the Southwest Border Technology Plan, focusing on sector-specific technology integration and addressing measurement issues, prompting consideration of red teaming for more effective security assessment through a red teaming approach. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
22 | Risk Assessment | Risk assessment is the systematic process of evaluating potential risks, hazards, and vulnerabilities to make informed decisions, prioritize actions, and reduce exposure to undesirable outcomes. | Risk assessment frameworks (e.g., Risk Radar, RiskWatch), predictive analytics, quantitative risk analysis software, risk management platforms. | Risk assessment informs migration policies by evaluating potential risks associated with migration, enabling proactive measures and risk mitigation strategies. | The IOM's Immigration and Border Management Division aids Member States in enhancing migration data collection, intelligence gathering, and risk analysis to enhance border management and migration policies while ensuring compliance with data protection laws and international standards. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 4 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
23 | Technology Roadmapping | Technology roadmapping is a strategic planning tool that visualizes the development and adoption of technologies over time. It helps organizations align technology strategies with their goals. | Roadmapping templates, technology forecasting software (e.g., Aha!, Roadmunk), benchmarking techniques, strategic planning tools. | Technology roadmapping assists in the strategic use of technology in migration policy, including border security, information management, and humanitarian assistance. | The Science and Technology Directorate's Maritime Safety and Security program aims to improve U.S. Maritime Border Security through the development and transition of technical capabilities, with a ten-year program capability roadmap created in collaboration with the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
24 | SWOT Analysis | SWOT analysis is a structured method for assessing an organization's internal Strengths and Weaknesses, and external Opportunities and Threats. It informs strategic decisions by evaluating these factors. | SWOT analysis templates, brainstorming tools, benchmarking techniques, SWOT analysis software (e.g., Lucidspark). | SWOT analysis aids in assessing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to migration policies, informing strategic decisions in this domain. | The study explores Turkey's response to the Syrian refugee crisis, considering integration techniques and future social integration policies while analyzing the pros and cons of integration, maintaining the status quo, and preventing immigration using strategic management principles. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | Exploration-based Methods | 3 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
25 | Innovation Workshops | Innovation workshops encourage creative problem-solving, ideation, and innovative thinking. They often use design thinking methodologies to foster the generation of new solutions. | Ideation platforms (e.g., Miro, Stormboard), design thinking methods, creative problem-solving techniques. | Innovation workshops foster creative solutions for migration policy challenges, encouraging out-of-the-box thinking and novel approaches to migration-related issues. | This project of the UK government Office for Science used a place-based open policy-making approach to ensure that local and national experts combined their efforts to develop innovative and practical ideas. It involved regional seminars and workshops with cities and universities across the UK. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
26 | Stress Testing | Stress testing assesses the resilience and robustness of a system, plan, or strategy by subjecting it to extreme conditions or hypothetical scenarios. It evaluates how well the system can withstand pressure. | Stress testing scenarios, financial modeling software, risk assessment methodologies. | Stress testing assesses the resilience of migration policies by subjecting them to extreme scenarios, helping policymakers prepare for crises and improve response strategies. | The report employs macroeconomic modeling to address the uncertainty in migration forecasts and scenarios over different timeframes, using Bayesian panel vector autoregressive models for short-term horizons and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models for longer-term scenarios, aiming to offer informed migration scenarios and assess their uncertainty while identifying research gaps and methodological challenges in forward-looking migration studies. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||
27 | Simulation and Modeling | Simulation and modeling involve creating dynamic models to replicate and analyze complex systems. It is used for predictive analysis and understanding system behavior. | Simulation software (e.g., AnyLogic, Simul8), machine learning techniques, Statistical software (e.g., Tableau, R), data analytics platforms, system modeling tools. | Simulation and modeling provide a data-driven approach for forecasting migration flows and impacts, assisting in the development of data-informed migration policies. | The MigrantLife project (2019–2024) explores the evolution and interaction of employment, housing, and family trajectories in the lives of immigrants and their descendants across the UK, France, Germany, and Sweden, using computer simulations and large-scale longitudinal data to understand the factors shaping their life histories and the potential for increasing diversity in European societies. | Source | Exploration-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
28 | Early Warning Systems | Early warning systems are designed for monitoring data and information to provide timely alerts about potential risks, opportunities, or threats. They support proactive decision-making. | Early warning platforms (e.g., Early Warning Monitor, ECDC Epidemic Intelligence), predictive analytics tools, monitoring software. | Early warning systems in migration policy use data and information to provide timely alerts about potential migration-related risks and opportunities, facilitating proactive responses. | "EWARS in a box" is a self-contained system for disease surveillance and response, suitable for remote areas lacking reliable internet or electricity, including mobile phones, laptops, and solar power, designed to support 50 clinics and integrate with the national system during emergencies. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
29 | Counterfactual Analysis | Counterfactual analysis examines what might have happened if certain key events or decisions had unfolded differently. It is a method for assessing alternative outcomes based on historical context. | Counterfactual frameworks, historical data analysis methods, "what-if" scenario analysis tools. | Counterfactual analysis examines alternative migration outcomes, helping policymakers learn from historical events and improve future migration policies. | This study uses counterfactual consumption estimates for remittance recipient households through the use of survey bootstrap procedure to predict the consumption of households in the case of no remittances, examining how migration and remittances act as a poverty-reducing mechanism in Kosovo. | Source | Expertise-based Methods | Expertise-based Methods | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
30 | Citizen Panels | A Citizens' Panel is a large, demographically representative group of citizens regularly used to assess public preferences and opinions. When conducted online it is sometimes known as an e-Panel. | Survey software (e.g., SurveyMonkey, Google Forms, and Qualtrics), Data analysis software (e.g., SPSS, R, or Excel), Panel management software (e.g., Ethelo, Citizen Space, and CitizenLab), Deliberative democracy platforms (e.g., Polis) | Through a participatory process involving Citizen Panels, representative citizens from diverse backgrounds engage in dialogue with policymakers, experts, and stakeholders to contribute their perspectives on key issues, thus facilitating democratic decision-making and promoting inclusive migration policies. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220124IPR21607/conference-on-the-future-of-europe-citizens-recommendations-debated-in-plenary | 20 Representatives from each European Citizens' Panel, of which at least one third are younger than 25, take part in the Plenary, presenting the outcome of their discussions in the form of recommendations and debating them with other participants. The panels take on board contributions gathered in the framework of the Conference through the multilingual digital platform, providing input to the Conference Plenary by formulating a set of recommendations for the Union to follow-up on. https://wayback.archive-it.org/12090/20230310153716/https://futureu.europa.eu/en/assemblies/citizens-panels?locale=en | Source | Experience-based Methods | | 2 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||
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38 | Expert Panels | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Expert Interviews | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | Structured Expert Judgment | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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48 | Benchmarking | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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50 | EXPLORATION | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Scenario Planning | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Environmental Scanning | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Cross-Impact Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Narrative-Based Methods | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Science Fiction and Creativity | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Futures-Creative Models | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Wildcards Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | Horizon Scanning | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Backcasting | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Cross-Scenario Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Scenario Workshops | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Science Fiction Narratives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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65 | Narrative Interviews | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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67 | Participatory Action Research | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | Citizen Panels | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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