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2022 Predictions Legend
😑 = -1 πŸ˜“ = -.75 πŸ˜… = .5 πŸ˜‘ = .75 😎 = 1
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PredictionScore
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1/ Year of the launch πŸš€: This is a battle cry for myself to launch more things in 2023 but I hope others do too. I want to see more launches, more experiments, and embracing the word F.A.I.L. as the acronym First Attempt In Learning.
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2/ AI has its moment in 2023 and beyond. ChatGPT and GPT4 will grow and have huge adoption. There will be a surge in new AI funds, hackathons, and all writing apps, todo apps, and productivity apps will integrate with one or more of the AI platforms. More than 100m people will use these API endpoints and not even realize it.
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3/ A new document sharing app will emerge. (think a new DocSend) with AI to make content suggestions. β€œX% time was spent on your team slide – think about elaborating on it” and β€œperson X has come back to this materials 7x – think about following up with them. This will encourage new content creation and be supportive and changes not just informative with analytics.
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4/ There is a breakout video game that uses components of Web3 – nobody knows or cares that there are cryptographic handshakes under the hood. Selfishly I hope this is Wolf.game and the price of $wool soars. I found this game about a year ago, am heavily biased into its success, and jumped in to understand the mechanics of a on and off chain game ecosystem.
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5/ Zero Knowledge Proofs have a killer app moment – probably reserves for exchanges and banks. Without disclosing the amounts, institutions can show they have enough assets to back withdrawals. If you haven’t heard of them before here is a great primer. The biggest win here will be that people will use this technology without knowing (or caring) what is happening under the hood.
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6/ Peloton is bought by Nike. PTON is down 77% YTD and I was wrong last year about Apple picking them up so this year I’ll go with Nike. I am still a huge fan of this co and use mine (mainly for the screen!) all the time.
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7/ Micro PE firms have their year to execute. Funds that raised to M&A struggling SaaS startups take advantage of the lack of fundraising that occurs and they execute on deals they set out to do. Consolidation of ARR companies that are doing $5-$10m happens.
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8/ There is a cohort of companies started in 2023 that rivals the vintage of 2008. This one will be hard to measure in 12 months, but I really believe this is a unique moment in time to build something world changing.
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9/ Self hosted cloud storage booms. Articles like this one from the NYTimes articulate why and how our data hoarding on someone else’s cloud service might not be so great. Self sovereign data storage becomes normal. Someone running their own VPS or seedbox becomes normalized.
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10/ People and companies continue to invest in startups vs. firms and funds – they use platforms like Sydecar to invest without having to raise a traditional vehicles. If the 10 year fund crawled so that rolling funds could walk, the SPV is now in a full blown run. I am biased here because I handle these Special Situations. There has been incredible software, legal constructs, and acceptance of unique investment vehicles allowing new entrants to invest through convenience. The focus on audience, distribution, operational expertise, and vertical understanding matter – startups get funded by β€œnon traditional” leads and this is a good thing.
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Legend
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😑 = -1 πŸ˜“ = -.75 πŸ˜… = .5 πŸ˜‘ = .75 😎 = 1
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