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Summary of Tool: Intention of this tool is to be used when you will be rewarded a free bet (amount waged IS NOT returned on winning bet) in the event that your first bet loses. Commonly seen for sign-up offers.
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NOTE: This is not to be used for determining free bet conversion value exclusively, but rather the conversion value from start to finish of a promotion that offers a free bet if your bet loses
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Instructions (PLEASE READ BEFORE FIRST USING [Press + on lefthand side to expand instructions])
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• Ensure macros are enabled
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• Ensure the Solver Add-In is turned on (File -> Options -> Add-Ins -> Manage Excel Add-ins -> Go -> Check "Solver Add-in" -> Ok)
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• Fill out details in the cells highlighted in blue below
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• Click the "Press to Run" button
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• Ensure "Keep Solver Solution" is checked once macro has finished, then press "OK"
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Tips
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• Find a binary, long "underdog" line whose favorite in another book that, when adding the odds together, comes out close to or above zero as possible
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• Test in "Free Bet Calc" tab to get the feel of balancing between picking long odds while also minimizing the gap on the hedge
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• The Conversion Rate assumption below is just that, an assumption. If you end up finding better conversion once you receive the free bet, that's just gravy (plug new values into the "Free Bet Calc")
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Assumptions
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Notes
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Conversion Rate of Free Bet Value to Cash75.00%
Conservative Conversion = 70%, Good Conversion = 80%, Fantastic Conversion = > 90%
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Free Bet Amount to be Earned$500
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Odds on Sportsbook where Free Bet will be earned (American)
325
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Odds on Sportsbook w/ Hedge (American)-350
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OUTPUTS
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Hedge Bet Amount ($)$1,361.11
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Full Arb Value of Free Bet Promo ($)$263.89
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Adjusted Conversion Rate of Free Bet (%)52.78%
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MATH BELOW (Click + on lefthand side to reveal)
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