| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Discount rate | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | Number of years between present and the time at which we expect benefits to accrue | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | Discount rate | 0.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Yearly discount factor | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 98.0% | 97.5% | 97.1% | 96.6% | 96.1% | 95.6% | 95.1% | 94.7% | 94.2% | 93.7% | 93.3% | |||||||||||||||||||
6 | Baseline population characteristics | Source | Notes | Andhra Pradesh | Madhya Pradesh | Rajasthan | Odisha | Jharkhand | Assam | Telangana | Gujarat | Tamil Nadu | Kerala | Uttarakhand | Maharashtra | Himachal Pradesh | Arunachal Pradesh | Bihar | Chattisgarh | Goa | Haryana | Karnataka | Manipur | Meghalaya | Mizoram | Nagaland | Punjab | Sikkim | Tripura | Uttar Pradesh | West Bengal | AP and MP rural population as % of total rural population in India | ||
7 | Total number of households | JJM | 9,554,758 | 11,978,200 | 10,799,458 | 8,866,298 | 6,120,293 | 6,801,534 | 5,398,219 | 9,118,449 | 12,552,782 | 7,078,787 | 1,494,278 | 14,673,332 | 1,708,721 | 230,275 | 16,630,102 | 5,009,644 | 263,013 | 3,041,314 | 10,116,656 | 451,566 | 651,566 | 133,060 | 369,295 | 3,425,723 | 131,880 | 742,498 | 26,622,323 | 18,420,636 | ||||
8 | Total number of villages | JJM | 18,357 | 51,416 | 43,249 | 47,274 | 29,595 | 25,243 | 10,452 | 18,152 | 12,525 | 1,578 | 15,030 | 40,327 | 18,066 | 5,509 | 38,903 | 19,678 | 378 | 6,713 | 28,333 | 2,551 | 6,493 | 677 | 1,548 | 11,900 | 439 | 1,176 | 98,455 | 39,158 | ||||
9 | Average rural household size | DHS | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 4.0 | ||||
10 | Number of people reached per SVS device (using DHS household size data) | Calculation | 1,821.7 | 1,071.6 | 1,273.5 | 750.2 | 930.6 | 1,185.5 | 1,807.7 | 2,310.8 | 3,407.5 | 16,597.9 | 437.4 | 1,601.0 | 368.9 | 167.2 | 2,051.9 | 1,120.2 | 2,713.6 | 2,265.2 | 1,571.1 | 761.2 | 491.7 | 786.2 | 858.8 | 1,353.0 | 1,051.4 | 2,336.1 | 1,406.1 | 1,881.7 | ||||
11 | Number of people reached per SVS device (using JJM population data) | Calculation | 2,073.3 | 1,172.3 | 1,360.7 | 812.4 | 1,067.7 | 1,311.4 | 1,980.2 | 2,409.1 | 3,935.3 | 18,311.6 | 479.0 | 1,701.9 | 418.4 | 242.2 | 2,443.7 | 1,150.0 | 3,008.7 | 2,649.0 | 1,571.2 | 950.3 | 552.1 | 983.6 | 1,214.9 | 1,532.1 | 1,248.2 | 2,769.2 | 1,713.5 | 2,052.8 | ||||
12 | Rural population estimate, accounting for population growth, January 2023 | https://ejalshakti.gov.in/JJM/JJMReports/BasicInformation/JJMRep_RWS_RuralPopulation.aspx | 38,059,344 | 60,276,827 | 58,850,320 | 38,404,882 | 31,599,953 | 33,104,480 | 20,696,907 | 43,729,964 | 49,290,143 | 28,895,631 | 7,198,769 | 68,633,797 | 7,559,615 | 1,334,171 | 95,065,781 | 22,630,061 | 1,137,274 | 17,782,877 | 44,516,534 | 2,424,223 | 3,584,484 | 665,884 | 1,880,620 | 18,232,210 | 547,938 | 3,256,608 | 168,704,222 | 80,381,657 | 10.37% | |||
13 | % Single Village Schemes (SVS) for rural population | JJM format B15 | Assumes the SVS/MVS proportion stays constant | 90% | 72% | 33% | 28% | 54% | 58% | 76% | 0% | 66% | 18% | 57% | 82% | 3% | 76% | 29% | 85% | 0% | 79% | 69% | 68% | 50% | 80% | 97% | 49% | 89% | 87% | 40% | 6% | |||
14 | Adjustment to % SVS | Evidence Action estimate | 0% | 0% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||
15 | % of rural population reachable via SVS devices | Calculation | 90% | 72% | 66% | 35% | 54% | 58% | 76% | 0% | 66% | 18% | 57% | 82% | 3% | 76% | 29% | 85% | 0% | 79% | 69% | 68% | 50% | 80% | 97% | 49% | 89% | 87% | 40% | 6% | ||||
16 | % of rural population with household tap connnections, updated estimate through May 31 2023 | JJM | Updated from Evidence Action estimate using most recent data (only a few pp higher) | 69.80% | 49.66% | 39.02% | 61.08% | 36.60% | 50.41% | 100% | 100% | 67.68% | 49.27% | 77.62% | 76.63% | 99% | 81.04% | 96.34% | 47.81% | 100% | 100% | 68.57% | 76.60% | 51.37% | 87.47% | 70.18% | 100% | 85.38% | 63.69% | 47.63% | 33.75% | |||
17 | % of communities with existing treatment | Evidence Action estimate | Using Evidence Action estimate | 20% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |||
18 | % of communities without existing treatment | Calculation | 80% | 85% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | ||||
19 | Adjustment for gov't overreporting (discount) | Evidence Action estimate | Evidence Action used an estimate of 15% We have some concerns based on a shallow review of overreporting from SBM, so we subjectively adjust to a 25% adjustment, though we have high uncertainty. | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | |||
20 | % of districts EvAc would be operating in "partial" coverage states | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |||||
21 | % of the rural population reached with JJM tap connections (through May 31, 2023) on SVS, without pre-existing chlorination (for reference) | Calculation | 38% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 20% | 51% | 0% | 30% | 6% | 30% | 42% | 2% | 42% | 19% | 27% | 0% | 53% | 32% | 35% | 17% | 48% | 46% | 33% | 51% | 37% | 13% | 1% | ||||
22 | Number of HH per SVS device (using DHS household size data) | 520 | 233 | 250 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Historical coverage increase compared to historical expenditure | Source | Notes | AP | MP | RJ | Odisha | Jharkhand | Assam | Telangana | Gujarat | Tamil Nadu | Kerala | Uttarakhand | Maharashtra | Himachal Pradesh | Arunachal Pradesh | Bihar | Chattisgarh | Goa | Haryana | Karnataka | Manipur | Meghalaya | Mizoram | Nagaland | Punjab | Sikkim | Tripura | Uttar Pradesh | West Bengal | |||
24 | Absolute increase in coverage, 2019-2020, in number of households | JJM | 119,090 | 419,152 | 102,169 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Absolute increase in coverage, 2020-2021, in number of households | JJM | 1,276,628 | 1,986,546 | 680,883 | 1,547,352.00 | 299,731.00 | 507,217 | 1819651 | 1094588 | 1613190 | 404464 | 432301 | 3708868 | 378579 | 65087 | 10345628 | 150928 | 32827 | 791155 | 343077 | 196153 | 87355 | 33790 | 47595 | 818020 | 10278 | 142211 | 1915850 | 1247860 | ||||
26 | Absolute increase in coverage, 2021-2022, in number of households | JJM | 959,256 | 1,089,412 | 538,030 | 1,747,458.00 | 418,618.00 | 1,652,387 | 0 | 898641 | 1489972 | 663874 | 274958 | 1065501 | 286547 | 41964 | 1985975 | 445107 | 0 | 348579 | 1870487 | 69908 | 133670 | 21493 | 92132 | 840379 | 7909 | 165207 | 580816 | 2330522 | ||||
27 | Absolute increase in coverage, 2022-2023, in number of households | JJM | 1,212,182 | 906,802 | 1,413,246 | 1,222,183.00 | 877,110.00 | 878,701 | 0 | 503399 | 2652454 | 529487 | 223645 | 822396 | 92872 | 33918 | 363023 | 1081248 | 0 | 0 | 2056621 | 48767 | 80305 | 30213 | 87199 | 12602 | 19409 | 80688 | 6032640 | 2076714 | ||||
28 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | Expenditure (in crore rupees), 2019-2020 | JJM | 176.42 | 615.40 | 1,318.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | Expenditure (in USD), 2019-2020 | https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/inr-to-usd-rate?amount=10000000 | $21,334,471 | $74,420,322 | $159,488,531 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | Expenditure (in crore rupees), 2020-2021 | JJM | 609 | 1,891 | 1,551 | 1,361.69 | 464.35 | 970.460000 | 195.15 | 1,721.93 | 976.54 | 615.54 | 247.34 | 797.75 | 371.26 | 424.48 | 926.24 | 444.9 | 16.48 | 251.11 | 766 | 207.66 | 208.74 | 118.03 | 101.95 | 251.69 | 47.18 | 217.26 | 2,648.00 | 1,837.24 | ||||
32 | Expenditure (in USD), 2020-2021 | https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/inr-to-usd-rate?amount=10000000 | $73,610,091 | $228,641,142 | $187,573,314 | $164,669,172 | $56,153,846 | $117,357,728 | $23,599,490 | $208,232,995 | $118,092,982 | $74,437,252 | $29,910,826 | $96,471,908 | $44,896,472 | $51,332,366 | $112,010,203 | $53,801,757 | $1,992,926 | $30,366,732 | $92,632,380 | $25,112,324 | $25,242,928 | $14,273,368 | $12,328,814 | $30,436,872 | $5,705,477 | $26,273,252 | $320,222,640 | $222,177,433 | ||||
33 | Expenditure (in crore rupees), 2021-2022 | JJM | 470 | 4,742 | 3,584 | 2,595.92 | 948.2 | 2,818.330000 | 86.58 | 4,351.10 | 953.78 | 2,017.01 | 665.38 | 855.96 | 1,567.67 | 1,220.91 | 344.45 | 987.32 | 32.01 | 718.96 | 2,976.48 | 527.58 | 748.6 | 283.29 | 373.02 | 423.64 | 101.69 | 664.95 | 6,455.47 | 2,273.29 | ||||
34 | Expenditure (in USD), 2021-2022 | https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/inr-to-usd-rate?amount=10000000 | $56,855,240 | $573,463,362 | $433,434,887 | $313,924,606 | $114,665,826 | $340,820,647 | $10,470,119 | $526,178,523 | $115,340,615 | $243,917,019 | $80,464,403 | $103,511,243 | $189,578,333 | $147,644,646 | $41,654,339 | $119,396,608 | $3,870,969 | $86,943,833 | $359,945,726 | $63,800,249 | $90,528,198 | $34,258,260 | $45,109,309 | $51,230,785 | $12,297,372 | $80,412,404 | $780,659,987 | $274,908,960 | ||||
35 | Expenditure (in crore rupees), 2022-2023 | JJM | 404 | 7,043 | 7,901 | 4,316.43 | 3,382.85 | 4,402.700 | 24.910 | 6,357.27 | 1,259.92 | 3,483.61 | 1,666.31 | 6,081.97 | 1,798.06 | 1,431.66 | 66.19 | 4,176.54 | 31.18 | 967.23 | 5,848.19 | 258 | 1,220.88 | 453.14 | 534.42 | 475.49 | 243.16 | 881.31 | 19,434.97 | 5,157.94 | ||||
36 | Expenditure (in USD), 2022-2023 | https://wise.com/us/currency-converter/inr-to-usd-rate?amount=10000000 | $48,835,162 | $851,688,223 | $955,470,349 | $521,985,880 | $409,088,051 | $532,418,511 | $3,012,366 | $768,784,661 | $152,362,126 | $421,272,957 | $201,506,868 | $735,492,632 | $217,439,396 | $173,130,644 | $8,004,357 | $505,068,982 | $3,770,597 | $116,967,124 | $707,221,617 | $31,199,940 | $147,641,018 | $54,798,220 | $64,627,411 | $57,501,006 | $29,405,339 | $106,576,818 | $2,350,270,922 | $623,749,684 | ||||
37 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Average number of additional people treated per year, 2020-2023 | 4,578,212 | 6,680,696 | 4,781,209 | 6,521,872 | 2,745,861 | 4,929,354 | 2,325,529 | 3,991,083 | 7,533,393 | 2,174,109 | 1,494,894 | 8,726,199 | 1,117,829 | 272,249 | 24,189,560 | 2,525,596 | 47,315 | 2,221,381 | 6,263,395 | 563,383 | 552,573 | 142,618 | 385,204 | 2,964,439 | 52,068 | 567,413 | 18,016,584 | 8,225,666 | |||||
39 | Average number of additional people treated per year, 2020-2023, adjusted for percentage living in SVS villages and without pre-existing chlorination, and corrected for government overreporting | 2,471,955 | 3,075,083 | 2,145,747 | 1,538,671 | 1,002,378 | 1,943,581 | 1,196,553 | 237 | 3,361,848 | 263,379 | 570,816 | 4,800,922 | 23,553 | 140,405 | 4,759,348 | 1,442,952 | 0 | 1,181,419 | 2,916,358 | 256,768 | 187,413 | 77,493 | 250,915 | 985,460 | 31,161 | 332,274 | 4,907,425 | 319,261 | |||||
40 | Average expenditure, 2020-2023 | $59,766,831 | $551,264,242 | $525,492,850 | $333,526,552 | $193,302,574 | $330,198,962 | $12,360,658 | $501,065,393 | $128,598,574 | $246,542,410 | $103,960,699 | $311,825,261 | $150,638,067 | $124,035,886 | $53,889,633 | $226,089,116 | $3,211,498 | $78,092,563 | $386,599,908 | $40,037,504 | $87,804,048 | $34,443,283 | $40,688,511 | $46,389,554 | $15,802,729 | $71,087,491 | $1,150,384,516 | $373,612,026 | |||||
41 | Expected JJM budget change, 2023-2024 compared to 2022-2023 | 2022-2023 budget figure from JJM 2023-2024 budget figure from Evidence Action (unpublished) | 173.5% | 94.0% | 46.5% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | 104.7% | ||||
42 | Expected expenditure 2023-2024 | $84,729,331 | $800,200,598 | $444,451,492 | $546,296,185 | $428,140,396 | $557,214,693 | $3,152,660 | $804,589,059 | $159,458,045 | $440,892,787 | $210,891,593 | $769,746,529 | $227,566,141 | $181,193,810 | $8,377,141 | $528,591,422 | $3,946,204 | $122,414,602 | $740,158,855 | $32,653,006 | $154,517,063 | $57,350,323 | $67,637,285 | $60,178,984 | $30,774,826 | $111,540,391 | $2,459,729,446 | $652,799,407 | |||||
43 | Expected expenditure 2024-2028 | $66,007,456 | $613,498,331 | $505,232,511 | $386,718,961 | $252,012,030 | $386,952,895 | $10,058,659 | $576,946,309 | $136,313,442 | $295,130,004 | $130,693,423 | $426,305,578 | $169,870,085 | $138,325,367 | $42,511,510 | $301,714,692 | $3,395,174 | $89,173,073 | $474,989,645 | $38,191,380 | $104,482,302 | $40,170,043 | $47,425,704 | $49,836,912 | $19,545,753 | $81,200,716 | $1,477,720,749 | $443,408,871 | |||||
44 | Number of additional people reached per year, 2024-2028 | 2,730,067 | 3,422,239 | 2,063,018 | 1,784,066 | 1,306,819 | 2,277,640 | 973,712 | 273 | 3,563,532 | 315,284 | 717,598 | 6,563,483 | 26,560 | 156,581 | 3,754,471 | 1,925,612 | 0 | 1,349,050 | 3,583,136 | 244,928 | 223,012 | 90,378 | 292,461 | 1,058,692 | 38,542 | 379,545 | 6,303,809 | 378,904 | |||||
45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Coverage estimates for focal states (direct benefits) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||||
48 | Andhra Pradesh | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Total number of device installations (cumulative), Evidence Action estimate | 98 | 655 | 2,136 | 4,272 | 4,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Total number of device installations (cumulative), GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale-up and decline in coverage after grant period) | 98 | 655 | 1,396 | 3,204 | 3,204 | 3,133 | 3,062 | 2,990 | 2,919 | 2,848 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Targeted # of individuals, AP, Evidence Action estimate | 17,705,845 | 23,548,774 | 25,604,982 | 25,604,982 | 25,604,982 | 25,604,982 | 25,604,982 | 25,604,982.00 | 25,604,982.00 | 25,604,982.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Targeted # of individuals, AP, GiveWell estimate | 14,343,866 | 17,073,933 | 19,804,000 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | 20,549,718 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Expected coverage without Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 20% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Adjustment for lower expected effectiveness of counterfactual water treatment, GiveWell estimate | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 1% | 5% | 15% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale up and decline in coverage after grant period) | 1% | 5% | 10% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale up, decline in coverage after grant period, and average instead of end-of-year coverage), 5-year grant | 1% | 3% | 8% | 16% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Maximum expected reach with Evidence Action | 4,303,160 | 5,122,180 | 5,941,200 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | 6,164,915 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | % likelihood of failure (cumulative) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | % likelihood of success (cumulative) | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 80% | 80% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Total number of individuals reached with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate | 178,530 | 1,193,239 | 2,542,236 | 5,836,850 | 5,836,850 | 5,707,142 | 5,577,434 | 5,447,727 | 5,318,019 | 5,188,311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Total number of individuals reached with Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 178,530 | 1,193,239 | 3,891,233 | 7,782,467 | 7,782,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Difference between GiveWell and Evidence Action estimated reach (over grant period) | 0 | 0 | 1,348,997 | 1,945,617 | 1,945,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Total number of individuals reached without Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate | 0 | 0 | 813,516 | 1,724,116 | 2,075,324 | 2,872,809 | 3,692,646 | 4,101,818 | 4,254,415 | 4,150,649 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of number of device installations (before accounting for likelihood of failure and discount rate) | 178,530 | 1,193,239 | 1,728,720 | 4,112,734 | 3,761,526 | 2,834,334 | 1,884,788 | 1,345,909 | 1,063,604 | 1,037,662 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of number of device installations (after accounting for likelihood of failure and discount rate) | 178,530 | 1,193,239 | 1,728,720 | 4,031,498 | 3,668,882 | 2,750,772 | 1,820,120 | 1,034,611 | 813,533 | 789,742 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of coverage rates (for reference) | 71,719 | 512,218 | 1,010,004 | 2,306,466 | 2,906,321 | 2,203,798 | 1,458,582 | 829,329 | 652,303 | 633,418 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 177,058 | 1,177,439 | 3,072,598 | 6,145,196 | 5,120,996 | 4,096,797 | 3,072,598 | 2,560,498 | 2,368,461 | 2,496,486 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | JJM reach, GW estimate | 19,924,293 | 22,654,360 | 25,384,427 | 28,114,493 | 30,844,560 | 30,844,560 | 30,844,560 | 30,844,560 | 30,844,560 | 30,844,560 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | JJM reach, as a % of rural population, GW estimate | 52.35% | 59.52% | 66.70% | 73.87% | 81.04% | 81.04% | 81.04% | 81.04% | 81.04% | 81.04% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | Madhya Pradesh | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | Total number of device installations (cumulative), Evidence Action estimate | 145 | 1,113 | 4,612 | 9,224 | 9,224 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | Total number of device installations (cumulative), GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale-up and decline in coverage after grant period) | 145 | 1,113 | 2,863 | 6,918 | 6,918 | 6,764 | 6,611 | 6,457 | 6,303 | 6,149 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | Targeted # of individuals, MP, Evidence Action estimate | 15,548,520 | 23,789,236 | 32,872,135 | 32,872,135 | 32,872,135 | 32,872,135 | 32,872,135 | 32,872,135.00 | 32,872,135.00 | 32,872,135.00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | Targeted # of individuals, MP, GiveWell estimate | 13,777,703 | 17,199,942 | 20,622,182 | 24,044,421 | 27,466,661 | 27,466,661 | 27,466,661 | 27,466,661 | 27,466,661 | 27,466,661 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | Expected coverage without Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | Adjustment for lower expected effectiveness of counterfactual water treatment, GiveWell estimate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 1% | 5% | 15% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale up) | 1% | 5% | 10% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | Expected coverage with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate (adjusted for slower expected scale up and average instead of end-of-year coverage), 5-year grant | 1% | 3% | 8% | 16% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 21% | 20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | Maximum expected reach with Evidence Action | 4,133,311 | 5,159,983 | 6,186,655 | 7,213,326 | 8,239,998 | 8,239,998 | 8,239,998 | 8,239,998 | 8,239,998 | 8,239,998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | % likelihood of failure (cumulative) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 25% | 25% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | % likelihood of success (cumulative) | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 75% | 75% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | Total number of individuals reached with Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate | 155,389 | 1,192,741 | 3,067,585 | 7,213,326 | 7,413,643 | 7,248,895 | 7,084,148 | 6,919,400 | 6,754,652 | 6,589,905 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | Total number of individuals reached with Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 155,389 | 1,192,741 | 4,942,429 | 9,884,857 | 9,884,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | Difference between GiveWell and Evidence Action estimated reach (over grant period) | 0 | 0 | 1,874,844 | 2,671,531 | 2,471,214 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | Total number of individuals reached without Evidence Action, GiveWell estimate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 221,949 | 988,486 | 1,791,862 | 2,768,517 | 3,256,188 | 3,377,326 | 3,294,952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of number of device installations (before accounting for likelihood of failure and discount rate) | 155,389 | 1,192,741 | 3,067,585 | 6,991,378 | 6,425,157 | 5,457,034 | 4,315,630 | 3,663,212 | 3,377,326 | 3,294,952 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of number of device installations (after accounting for likelihood of failure and discount rate) | 155,389 | 1,192,741 | 3,067,585 | 6,853,281 | 6,266,910 | 5,296,150 | 4,167,559 | 2,639,944 | 2,421,808 | 2,350,985 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, based on projection of coverage rates (for reference) | 68,889 | 515,998 | 1,546,664 | 3,712,194 | 5,224,084 | 4,465,029 | 3,514,466 | 2,226,851 | 2,043,434 | 1,984,274 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | Additional number of individuals treated due to Evidence Action, Evidence Action estimate | 155,485 | 1,189,462 | 4,930,820 | 9,532,919 | 7,889,312 | 6,245,706 | 4,273,378 | 3,287,214 | 3,040,672 | 3,205,033 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | JJM reach, GW estimate | 22,449,307 | 25,871,547 | 29,293,786 | 32,716,026 | 36,138,265 | 36,138,265 | 36,138,265 | 36,138,265 | 36,138,265 | 36,138,265 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | JJM reach, as a % of rural population, GW estimate | 37.24% | 42.92% | 48.60% | 54.28% | 59.95% | 59.95% | 59.95% | 59.95% | 59.95% | 59.95% |