ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAA
1
[Globe Elections UN] Global Election Projection / Prediction / Forecast Dashboard - INTRODUCTION TAP
2
CONFIDENCE RANGE> AVERAGE ERROR OF ±2.50%p, STANDARD ERROR OF ±3.00%p AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL.
3
List Of Database Election Projection / Prediction / Forecast Models> https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vZNPYVqn1UQMSSt6CTc3SUiYcYilsub_J-Bw0egTSgc/
4
#The Sample Size Of Polls Which Didn't Mentioned About Is Set As 250, 500 or 1,000
#Excluding Would Not Vote/Refused When Full Sample Information Is Given & Using Weighted+Registered/Likely Voter-Based Polling Data Used
#Error Cover Lower Than 0.75 & Higher Than 1.33 For 10%< Average Parties & Error Cover Lower Than 0.75 & Higher Than 2.00 For 10%> Average Parties Is Not Used
#Partisan Cover Higher Than 3.0 For Others When Performing 2.5%+ Is Not Used, Excluding Polls Overlapped
5
6
Nationa Projection Method
7
Poll+Error = (Poll Base)*(Error Cover)
8
Poll Base = Polling Average Rounded To Total Of 100%
9
10
State/Province/Regional/Department Projection Method
11
Swing Base = (Last Election Results)*(National Swing)
12
Poll Base = Polling Average Rounded To Total Of 100% OR
13
(Statewide Polling Average/National Polling Averge)*(National Projection)
14
Partisan Base = (National Projection)*(Partisan Swing)
15
Poll+Swing = Average Of Poll Base & Swing Base
16
Partisan+Swing = Average Of Partisan Base & Swing Base
17
18
Typical Release TimetableCurrent Qualifing Rule
19
Globe Elections UN(YouTube Video)>Globe Elections UN(YouTube Video) & GEHSC.en(WordPress Article)>
20
22:00 KST (±2 Hour)10 Or More Polling Data In The Last 7 Days Of The Month (REGULAR)
21
GEHSC.en(WordPress Article)>6 Or More Polling Data In The Last 7 Days (Or 4,000,000+ Population) (FINAL & LIVE)
22
22:00 KST (±2 Hour)GEHSC.kr(Naver Post)>
23
GEHSC.kr(Naver Post)>10,000,000+ Population
24
23:00 KST (±2 Hour)
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100