Monopoly Politics 2018
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Monopoly Politics 2018
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FairVote’s projections for 2018 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column O) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column F), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column G), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation.
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District Partisanship+POAC Adjuster+Partisan Swing and
Incumbency Bump Impact
= Projected Result
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Assumptions*2018 High Confidence Projections
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2018 National Party Preference (Dem. %)
Default is 50.0% for projections in even year
50.0%
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2018 Average Incumbency Bump in Percentage
Default is 3.3% based on 2016 average advantage
3.3%
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*Our projections assume an even split in national party preference, and an incumbency advantage equal to the observed advantage in 2016. You can adjust the values in the orange cells above to automatically generate new projections for different scenarios.
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2018 High Confidence ProjectionsFull Projections
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Republican:207Democratic:171
Republican Seats:
243
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No Projection (R Favored):21No Projection (D Favored):10
Democratic Seats:
192
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Toss Ups:26If No Incumbents
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Republican Seats:
237
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Democratic Seats:
198
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Last Updated11/30/2017
(updates since 2/20/17 only to adjust formatting, correct minor errors, and indicate open seats)
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StateCDIncumbentPartyYear First ElectedDistrict Partisanship (Dem. & Rep. %)Performance Over Average Candidate (POAC) AdjusterPartisan Swing and Incumbency Bump ImpactProjected Result in a 50-50 YearHigh-Confidence ProjectionsFull
Projections
Competition Ratings
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Alabama1Bradley Byrne(R)2013
34.3% D
65.8% R
-0.5%R + 2.8%R with 68.1%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama2Martha Roby(R)2010
33.0% D
67.0% R
-9.4%R + 2.8%R with 60.4%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama3Mike Rogers(R)2002
32.5% D
67.6% R
-3.3%R + 2.8%R with 67.1%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama4Robert Aderholt(R)1996
17.5% D
82.6% R
-4.9%R + 2.8%R with 80.4%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama5Mo Brooks(R)2010
32.3% D
67.8% R
-3.9%R + 2.8%R with 66.7%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama6Gary Palmer(R)2014
26.6% D
73.4% R
-2.2%R + 2.8%R with 74.0%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama7Terri Sewell(D)2010
69.6% D
30.5% R
-1.1%D + 2.8%D with 71.3%DSafe DSafe D
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AlaskaALDon Young(R)1973
41.4% D
58.7% R
-2.2%R + 2.8%R with 59.2%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona1Tom O'Halleran(D)2016
48.4% D
51.6% R
0.9%D + 0.5%R with 50.2%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up
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Arizona2Open Seat (Martha McSally)(R)2014
51.4% D
48.6% R
N/AR + 0.0%D with 51.4%No projectionToss Up-DToss Up
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Arizona3Raul Grijalva(D)2002
63.9% D
36.1% R
-4.7%D + 2.8%D with 62.0%DSafe DSafe D
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Arizona4Paul Gosar(R)2010
28.9% D
71.2% R
-2.5%R + 2.8%R with 71.5%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona5Andy Biggs(R)2016
38.4% D
61.6% R
0.3%R + 0.5%R with 62.4%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona6David Schweikert(R)2010
44.0% D
56.1% R
0.8%R + 2.8%R with 59.7%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona7Ruben Gallego(D)2014
73.6% D
26.5% R
-0.9%D + 2.8%D with 75.4%DSafe DSafe D
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Arizona8Open Seat (Trent Franks)(R)2002
38.4% D
61.6% R
N/AR + 0.0%R with 61.6%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona9Open Seat (Kyrsten Sinema)(D)2012
57.1% D
42.9% R
N/AR + 0.0%D with 57.1%DSafe DLikely D
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Arkansas1Rick Crawford(R)2010
31.6% D
68.5% R
-4.5%R + 2.8%R with 66.7%RSafe RSafe R
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Arkansas2J. French Hill(R)2014
43.6% D
56.4% R
-0.4%R + 2.8%R with 58.8%RSafe RSafe R
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Arkansas3Steve Womack(R)2010
33.4% D
66.7% R
N/AR + 2.8%R with 69.5%RSafe RSafe R
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Arkansas4Bruce Westerman(R)2014
32.5% D
67.5% R
-9.4%R + 2.8%R with 60.9%RSafe RSafe R
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California1Doug La Malfa(R)2012
39.1% D
60.9% R
-3.6%R + 2.8%R with 60.1%RSafe RSafe R
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California2Jared Huffman(D)2012
71.8% D
28.2% R
2.1%D + 2.8%D with 76.7%DSafe DSafe D
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California3John Garamendi(D)2009
55.3% D
44.8% R
-0.6%D + 2.8%D with 57.4%DSafe DLikely D
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California4Tom McClintock(R)2008
41.6% D
58.4% R
-0.2%R + 2.8%R with 61.0%RSafe RSafe R
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California5Mike Thompson(D)1998
71.4% D
28.6% R
1.5%D + 2.8%D with 75.7%DSafe DSafe D
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California6Doris Matsui(D)2005
71.4% D
28.7% R
1.3%D + 2.8%D with 75.4%DSafe DSafe D
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California7Ami Bera(D)2012
54.7% D
45.4% R
-2.6%D + 2.8%D with 54.9%No projectionLean DLean D
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California8Paul Cook(R)2012
41.4% D
58.6% R
0.8%R + 2.8%R with 62.2%RSafe RSafe R
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California9Jerry McNerney(D)2006
58.3% D
41.8% R
-4.1%D + 2.8%D with 56.9%DSafe DLikely D
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California10Jeff Denham(R)2010
50.5% D
49.6% R
-0.6%R + 2.8%R with 51.7%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up
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California11Mark DeSaulnier(D)2014
73.4% D
26.7% R
-2.1%D + 2.8%D with 74.1%DSafe DSafe D
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California12Nancy Pelosi(D)1987
87.7% D
12.3% R
-2.8%D + 2.8%D with 87.7%DSafe DSafe D
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California13Barbara Lee(D)1998
89.3% D
10.8% R
-0.7%D + 2.8%D with 91.3%DSafe DSafe D
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California14Jackie Speier(D)2007.5
78.3% D
21.7% R
0.2%D + 2.8%D with 81.3%DSafe DSafe D
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California15Eric Swalwell(D)2012
71.8% D
28.2% R
-0.1%D + 2.8%D with 74.5%DSafe DSafe D
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California16Jim Costa(D)2004
59.8% D
40.3% R
-4.8%D + 2.8%D with 57.8%DSafe DLikely D
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California17Ro Khanna(D)2016
75.7% D
24.4% R
0.0%D + 0.5%D with 76.1%DSafe DSafe D
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California18Anna Eshoo(D)1992
75.6% D
24.5% R
-4.4%D + 2.8%D with 73.9%DSafe DSafe D
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California19Zoe Lofgren(D)1994
74.7% D
25.4% R
-3.0%D + 2.8%D with 74.5%DSafe DSafe D
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California20Jimmy Panetta(D)2016
72.6% D
27.5% R
-0.2%D + 0.5%D with 72.9%DSafe DSafe D
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California21David Valadao(R)2012
56.7% D
43.3% R
8.3%R + 2.8%R with 54.4%No projectionLean RLean R
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California22Devin Nunes(R)2002
44.2% D
55.8% R
5.4%R + 2.8%R with 64.0%RSafe RSafe R
60
California23Louie Gohmert(R)2004
25.5% D
74.5% R
-2.1%R + 2.8%R with 75.2%RSafe RSafe R
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California24Salud Carbajal(D)2016
59.1% D
41.0% R
-0.8%D + 0.5%D with 58.8%DSafe DSafe D
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California25Steve Knight(R)2014
52.3% D
47.7% R
1.4%R + 2.8%R with 51.9%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up
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California26Julia Brownley(D)2012
59.9% D
40.1% R
-2.1%D + 2.8%D with 60.6%DSafe DSafe D
64
California27Judy Chu(D)2009
67.8% D
32.3% R
-2.9%D + 2.8%D with 67.7%DSafe DSafe D
65
California28Adam Schiff(D)2000
73.9% D
26.2% R
0.9%D + 2.8%D with 77.5%DSafe DSafe D
66
California29Tony Cardenas(D)2012
79.4% D
20.6% R
-2.2%D + 2.8%D with 80.0%DSafe DSafe D
67
California30Brad Sherman(D)1982
70.7% D
29.4% R
-0.5%D + 2.8%D with 73.0%DSafe DSafe D
68
California31Pete Aguilar(D)2014
59.5% D
40.5% R
-4.5%D + 2.8%D with 57.8%DSafe DLikely D
69
California32Grace Napolitano(D)1998
68.4% D
31.6% R
-4.6%D + 2.8%D with 66.6%DSafe DSafe D
70
California33Ted Lieu(D)2014
69.6% D
30.4% R
-3.5%D + 2.8%D with 68.9%DSafe DSafe D
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California34Jimmy Gomez(D)1992
85.4% D
14.6% R
-2.9%D + 2.8%D with 85.3%DSafe DSafe D
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California35Norma Torres(D)2014
69.4% D
30.7% R
0.2%D + 2.8%D with 72.4%DSafe DSafe D
73
California36Raul Ruiz(D)2012
53.4% D
46.7% R
4.6%D + 2.8%D with 60.8%DSafe DSafe D
74
California37Karen Bass(D)2010
87.0% D
13.0% R
-2.1%D + 2.8%D with 87.7%DSafe DSafe D
75
California38Linda Sanchez(D)2002
68.8% D
31.3% R
-2.0%D + 2.8%D with 69.5%DSafe DSafe D
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California39Ed Royce(R)1992
53.3% D
46.8% R
5.4%R + 2.8%R with 54.9%No projectionLean RLean R
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California40Lucille Roybal-Allard(D)1992
83.7% D
16.4% R
N/AD + 2.8%D with 86.5%DSafe DSafe D
78
California41Mark Takano(D)2012
62.9% D
37.1% R
-1.8%D + 2.8%D with 63.9%DSafe DSafe D
79
California42Ken Calvert(R)1992
43.0% D
57.1% R
-1.0%R + 2.8%R with 58.8%RSafe RSafe R
80
California43Maxine Waters(D)1990
79.8% D
20.2% R
-5.6%D + 2.8%D with 77.0%DSafe DSafe D
81
California44Nanette Diaz Barragan(D)2016
84.3% D
15.7% R
0.0%D + 0.5%D with 84.8%DSafe DSafe D
82
California45Mimi Walters(R)2014
51.7% D
48.4% R
5.2%R + 2.8%R with 56.4%No projectionSafe RLikely R
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California46Lou Correa(D)2016
68.2% D
31.9% R
0.0%D + 0.5%D with 68.6%DSafe DSafe D
84
California47Alan Lowenthal(D)2012
64.8% D
35.3% R
-3.5%D + 2.8%D with 64.1%DSafe DSafe D
85
California48Dana Rohrabacher(R)1988
49.8% D
50.2% R
2.6%R + 2.8%R with 55.6%No projectionLean RLean R
86
California49Darrell Issa(R)2000
52.7% D
47.3% R
-0.3%R + 2.8%D with 50.2%No projectionToss Up-DToss Up
87
California50Duncan D. Hunter(R)2008
41.5% D
58.6% R
1.4%R + 2.8%R with 62.8%RSafe RSafe R
88
California51Juan Vargas(D)2012
73.5% D
26.6% R
-1.6%D + 2.8%D with 74.6%DSafe DSafe D
89
California52Scott Peters(D)2012
60.2% D
39.8% R
-3.0%D + 2.8%D with 60.0%DSafe DSafe D
90
California53Susan Davis(D)2000
66.4% D
33.6% R
-2.5%D + 2.8%D with 66.7%DSafe DSafe D
91
Colorado1Diana DeGette(D)1996
71.9% D
28.2% R
-2.3%D + 2.8%D with 72.4%DSafe DSafe D
92
Colorado2Open Seat (Jared Polis)(D)2008
59.6% D
40.4% R
N/AR + 0.0%D with 59.6%DSafe DSafe D
93
Colorado3Scott Tipton(R)2010
43.0% D
57.1% R
-1.5%R + 2.8%R with 58.4%RSafe RSafe R
94
Colorado4Ken Buck(R)2014
37.4% D
62.6% R
1.4%R + 2.8%R with 66.8%RSafe RSafe R
95
Colorado5Doug Lamborn(R)2006
37.0% D
63.1% R
-1.5%R + 2.8%R with 64.3%RSafe RSafe R
96
Colorado6Mike Coffman(R)2008
53.4% D
46.6% R
2.0%R + 2.8%R with 51.4%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up
97
Colorado7Ed Perlmutter(D)2006
55.0% D
45.1% R
-0.9%D + 2.8%D with 56.9%DSafe DLikely D
98
Connecticut1John Larson(D)1998
60.5% D
39.5% R
1.9%D + 2.8%D with 65.2%DSafe DSafe D
99
Connecticut2Joe Courtney(D)2006
50.4% D
49.6% R
9.1%D + 2.8%D with 62.3%DSafe DSafe D
100
Connecticut3Rosa DeLauro(D)1990
56.7% D
43.3% R
6.8%D + 2.8%D with 66.3%DSafe DSafe D
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