Ciech S.A DCF Model valuation.xls by RCieSolution ... above digit

	A	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
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2	Macroeconomic Assumptions	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
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4	Annual Real GDP dynamics (y/y, %)	3,5%	3,5%	3,5%	3,0%	3,0%	3,3%	3,3%	3,0%	3,5%	3,5%
5	Inflation CPI (%)	3,7%	0,9%	0,0%	-0,9%	-0,6%	2,3%	3,7%	3,5%	2,8%	3,1%
6	Exchange rate EUR/PLN end of period	4,17	4,17	4,17	4,36	4,46	4,35	4,51	4,45	4,51	4,51
7	Exchange rate EUR/PLN average	4,17	4,17	4,17	4,265	4,27	4,21	4,28	4,25	4,22	4,51
8	Exchange rate USD/PLN end of period	3,15	3,01	3,35	3,95	4,22	3,85	3,91	4,15	4,25	4,25
9	Exchange rate USD/PLN average	2,96	2,96	2,96	3,85	4,09	3,61	3,75	4,03	4,11	4,11
10	Tax rate CIT	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%
11	WIBOR 3M	4,00%	2,70%	2,00%	1,7%	1,7%	1,8%	2,7%	2,7%	3,1%	3,1%
12	Interest rates on deposits	3,00%	1,70%	1,00%	0,70%	0,70%	0,75%	1,70%	1,70%	2,10%	2,10%
13	Margin debt	2%	2%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%	1,5%
14	Debt cost	5,50%	4,20%	3,50%	3,20%	3,20%	3,25%	4,20%	4,20%	4,60%	4,60%
15	Risk free rate (10Y)	4,60%	3,80%	3,00%	2,90%	2,90%	3,70%	3,90%	4,00%	3,60%	3,60%
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19	Operational Assumptions	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017P	2018P	2019P	2020P	2021P
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21	Inventory Turnover	6,4%	6,2%	8,0%	9,0%	8,5%	7,5%	7,8%	6,8%	6,6%	6,2%
22	Turnover of inventories	16,0%	16,2%	11,8%	14,3%	14,5%	10,3%	12,5%	10,0%	9,6%	8,7%
23	Turnover of liabilities	-22,0%	-19,4%	-24,2%	-24,1%	-30,8%	-27,8%	-30,9%	-34,4%	-27,9%	-26,5%
24	Reserves as a % of sale	0,0%	2,3%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%
25	Prepayments of costs as a % of sale
26	Depreciation of fixed assets	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
27	Depreciation of intangible assets	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
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