Swing State poll results vs. Trump
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By Brad Templeton
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We track the margin of head to head polls between Trump and Democrats in the swing states. These are the only polls that matter.
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PollsterSizeWhoPoll closed
Pollster rating
Biden v Trump
Clinton v Trump 2016
Notes
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RV if not marked
Yellow box (lowest) are best rated
Green box means reasonable chance of winning. Red number means loss likely
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Florida*Cherry608LVJan 112.5-4-1.2
Partisan Poll, missing Sanders
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29FL Atl U1285Jan 122.53
Mildly Demward, superceded by Mar 9 poll
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UNF662Feb 181.51
Best rated pollster but sample size poor
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St. Leo900LVFeb 223.511
This poll is so out of line with others it is hard to credit
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FL Atl U1216Mar 92.5-1
Earlier instance leaned Demward
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Latino Dec1071Mar 125-3
Latino oversampled
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Atlas Intel1100Mar 1651
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UNF3244Apr 41.56
Updates February with much larger sample
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St. Pete Polls5659Apr 172.81
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Quinnipiac1385Apr 202.24
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Fox News1004RVApr 211.23
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FL Atl U928RVMay 122.55
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Redfield Wilton1014LVMay 1752
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Point Blank2149LVMay 173.55
Two polls reported with different results from Point Blank?
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Point Blank2149LVMay 173.51
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St. Pete4763RVMay 273.21
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Change Rsearch1186LVMay 313.23
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PennsylvaniaQuinnipiac849Feb 181.88-0.72
Demward leaning poll
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20Expedition500Feb 1855
Unknown pollster
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Muhlengerg424Feb 200.50
Top rated pollster but small sample
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Yougov1171Feb 202.31
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Yougov725Mar 62.36
Replaces poll from Feb 20
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Firehouse533LVMar 73.5-2
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*Hodas600Mar 215-2
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Baldwin Wallace973Mar 255-2
"The Democrat" is even
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Hodas600LVApr 1850
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Ispos578Apr 202.28
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Fox News803Apr 211.26
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Susquehanna693LVApr 2036
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Ipsos654AApr 202.25
Parallel poll of adults vs RV
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Public Policy1415VApr 2125
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Harper644LVApr 262.56
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Hodas600LVMay 135-5
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Redfield Wilton963LVMay 1359
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Change Research
579LVMay 313.2-4
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North Carolina
SurveyUSA2366Feb 1614-3.6
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15Climate Nex675Feb 1952
Unknown Pollster Quality
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Marist2120Feb 270.54
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East Carolina1200Feb 2853
Unknown Pollster Quality
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Harper Polling500LVApr 72.5-7
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Public Policy1318VApr 1521
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Garin-Hart-Yang800LVApr 182.53
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Public Policy1275VApr 2123
Two polls in quick succession
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Survey USA580LVApr 2615
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Meredeth604Apr 2857
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Civiqs1362May 42.53
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East Carolina1111May 92.5-3
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Meeting Street500May 132.50
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Redfield Wilton859LVMay 1452
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Neighborhood391LVMay 212.50
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Harper500LVMay 282.5-3
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Change research
806LVMay 313.21
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Public policy949V4398524
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Maine 2ndNone yet-10
There is some talk about this being in play
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Nebraska 2nd
DCCC Targetting448LVMay 102.53-2
Only poll so far, 1 EV for Biden
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WisconsinTarrance500LVJan 162.51-0.77
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10Marquete800Jan 231.54
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Yougov939Feb 112.32
Demward leaning
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Expedition500Feb 185-2
Unrated pollster
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Quinnipiac823Feb 181.8-7
Trumpward leaning
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Marquete1000Feb 231.50
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Firehouse533LVMar 73.5-1
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Yougov450Mar 82.32
Replaces Feb 11
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Public Policy1500VMar 1123
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Hodas600Mar 195-3
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Baldwin Wallace822Mar 2550
"The Democrat" is +3
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Marquette813Mar 291.53
Replacing prior polls of Even and Biden+4
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Garin-Hart-Yang301LVApr 82.51Very small poll
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Hodas600LVApr 1554
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Ipsos645Apr 202.23
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Ipsos711AApr 202.22
Unclear why two ISPOS polls
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Public Policy1415VApr 2125
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Marquette811May 71.52
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Hodas600LVMay 859
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Redfield Wilton875LVMay 14510
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Change Research
382LVMay 313.250
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Fox News801Jun 21.29
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ArizonaPubliic Policy760VJan 420-3.5
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11Fabrizio1000LVJan 24-5
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Climate Nexus539Feb 156-4
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Public Policy666VMar 321
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OH Predictive600LVMar 42.56
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Latino Dec1000Mar 1158
Unrated pollster. 50% respondents Latino (which are 30% of general population)
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Marist2523Mar 150.51
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Monmount847Mar 140.53
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OH Predictive600LVApr 82.59Updates earlier
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OH Predictive600LVMay 112.58
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Redfield & Wilton
946LVMay 1454
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Highground400LVMay 222.52