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Examining the RV/LV Gap, Presidential Polls, 2004-08
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YearStatePollsterDateLV MarginRV MarginFinal MarginCloser?LV DiffRV DiffRV/LV Gap
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2004PennsylvaniaLos Angeles Times10/26/2004-232.5RVR +4.5D +0.55
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2004IowaGallup10/30/2004-21-0.7LVR +1.3D +1.73
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2004PennsylvaniaFranklin and Marshall10/23/2004552.5TIED +2.5D +2.50
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2004OregonGallup10/18/2004874.2RVD +3.8D +2.8-1
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2004New JerseyRutgers10/17/200413106.7RVD +6.3D +3.3-3
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2004MinnesotaSt Cloud State Univ.10/26/2004473.5LVD +0.5D +3.53
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2004ColoradoGallup10/17/2004-5-1-4.7LVR +0.3D +3.74
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2004MinnesotaGallup10/30/2004883.5TIED +4.5D +4.50
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2004FloridaQuinnipiac10/26/2004-30-5LVD +2.0D +5.03
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2004LouisianaUniv of New Orleans10/21/2004-12-8-14.5LVD +2.5D +6.54
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2004CaliforniaLos Angeles Times10/18/2004171710TIED +7.0D +7.00
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2004OhioOhio University10/21/200446-2.1LVD +6.1D +8.12
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2004FloridaGallup10/30/200434-5LVD +8.0D +9.01
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2004OhioGallup10/31/200447-2.1LVD +6.1D +9.13
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2004OhioLos Angeles Times10/26/200497-2.1RVD +11.1D +9.1-2
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2004New MexicoGallup10/6/2004-3-1-0.7RVR +2.3R +0.32
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2004ConnecticutQuinnipiac10/28/200461010.4RVR +4.4R +0.44
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2004PennsylvaniaGallup10/30/2004-422.5RVR +6.5R +0.56
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2004PennsylvaniaQuinnipiac10/26/2004-412.5RVR +6.5R +1.55
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2004LouisianaSE Louisiana10/22/2004-27-26-14.5RVR +12.5R +11.51
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2004New YorkMarist College10/26/2004181618.3LVR +0.3R +2.3-2
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2004New JerseyQuinnipiac10/25/2004046.7RVR +6.7R +2.74
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2004FloridaLos Angeles Times10/26/2004-8-8-5TIER +3.0R +3.00
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2004WisconsinGallup10/31/2004-8-30.4RVR +8.4R +3.45
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2008IndianaOpinion Research10/6/2008-221RVR +3.0D +1.04
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2008New JerseyMarist College10/21/2008171715.5TIED +1.5D +1.50
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2008VirginiaOpinion Research10/28/2008986.3RVD +2.7D +1.7-1
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2008PennsylvaniaFranklin and Marshall10/26/2008131210.3RVD +2.7D +1.7-1
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2008PennsylvaniaMarist College10/27/2008141310.3RVD +3.7D +2.7-1
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2008VirginiaVCU10/22/20081196.3RVD +4.7D +2.7-2
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2008North CarolinaOpinion Research10/28/2008630.3RVD +5.7D +2.7-3
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2008MissouriOpinion Research10/28/2008-23-0.1LVR +1.9D +2.95
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2008South CarolinaPrinceton SRA10/28/2008-11-6-9LVR +2.0D +3.05
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2008West VirginiaOpinion Research10/21/2008-12-10-13.1LVD +1.1D +3.12
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2008New JerseyMonmouth Univ.10/18/2008171915.5LVD +1.5D +3.52
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2008PennsylvaniaOpinion Research10/28/2008121410.3LVD +1.7D +3.72
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2008FloridaOpinion Research10/28/2008572.8LVD +2.2D +4.22
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2008OhioOpinion Research10/28/20087114.6LVD +2.4D +6.44
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2008GeorgiaOpinion Research10/28/2008-43-5.2LVD +1.2D +8.27
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2008ColoradoMarist College10/28/2008699RVR +3.0R +0.03
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2008VirginiaMarist College10/27/2008466.3RVR +2.3R +0.32
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2008ArizonaOpinion Research10/28/2008-6-8-8.5RVR +2.5R +0.5-2
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2008New HampshireOpinion Research10/6/2008899.6RVR +1.6R +0.61
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2008ColoradoOpinion Research10/28/2008789RVR +2.0R +1.01
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2008NevadaOpinion Research10/28/200871112.5RVR +5.5R +1.54
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2008IowaMarist College10/24/20081089.5LVD +0.5R +1.5-2
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2008OhioMarist College10/26/2008334.6TIER +1.6R +1.60
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2008WisconsinUniv of Wisconsin10/28/2008101213.9RVR +3.9R +1.92
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2008WisconsinOpinion Research10/6/20088913.9RVR +5.9R +4.91
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2008New HampshireMarist College10/23/2008549.6LVR +4.6R +5.6-1
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