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To be completed by students in HW3
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Office building space conditioning energy use
Students can simulate changes to technologies and fuel shares by changing yellow cell values; students must add missing regions!
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Baseline number of U.S. office buildings by climate region (thousand)
2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast138138138138138138138
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Midwest265265265265265265265
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South375375375375375375375
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West193193193193193193193
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971971971971971971971
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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Baseline total floor area by climate region (million ft2)2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast3196324433323415348535473605
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Midwest4336437647475125549158536230
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South5718636469757642834290919939
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West3432348435783667374338093871
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1668217467.518631.419848.121060.722300.023645.1
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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Baseline total heated floor area by climate region (million ft2)
2022202520302035204020452050
% floor area heated
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Northeast310231493234331433833443349997%
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Midwest403140694414476551055441579293%
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South516457476299690175348210897690%
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West307231183203328233503410346590%
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15369160831714918263193722050421732
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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Baseline total cooled floor area by climate region (million ft2)
2022202520302035204020452050
% floor area cooled
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Northeast291829623042311731823239329191%
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Midwest378038154138446747865102543187%
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South544760626644728079478660946895%
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West299430393121319932653323337787%
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15139158781694518063191802032421567
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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2020-2060 CAGR for HDD-0.5%
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2020-2060 CAGR for CDD0.7%
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Sources: IEA (2018), The Future of Cooling; Preti and Caldeira (2015)
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Projected HDD by climate region2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast5981583356895548541152775146
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Midwest6605644162826126597558275683
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South2454239323342276222021652111
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West4399429041844081398038813785
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Projected CDD by climate region2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast733760787816845876908
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Midwest876908941975101010461084
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South2518260927032801290330083117
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West1137117912211266131113591408
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Space heating - Northeast example2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million ft2-HDD)18554655183667161839649118387923183038591816809118006781
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Fuel type
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% demand met by natural gas77%77%77%77%77%77%77%
assume no change
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% demand met by electricity4%4%4%4%4%4%4%
assume no change
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% met by district heating19%19%19%19%19%19%19%
assume no change
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Natural gas heating stock
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% boilers32%32%32%32%32%32%32%
assume no change
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% combustion furnaces68%68%68%68%68%68%68%
assume no change
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Boiler stock average efficiency (EF)80%82%83%85%87%88%90%
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/furnaces-and-boilers
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Furnace stock average efficiency (AFUE)80%82%83%85%87%88%90%
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/furnaces-and-boilers
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Electric heating stock
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Heat pump stock average efficiency (HSPF) 7.5 8.6 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.4 11.2
Modeling HSPF Using A log-linear model with historic data from: https://www.goodmanmfg.com/resources/hvac-learning-center/before-you-buy/what-generation-is-your-heat-pump
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District heating
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District heat space heating stock efficiency (J/ft2-HDD) 8,371 8,371 8,371 8,371 8,371 8,371 8,371
4th Gen DH looks promising, but I cannot find any efficiency numbers: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/district-heating-needs-flexibility-to-navigate-the-energy-transition
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Space cooling - Northeast2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million ft2-CDD)2139344225002823945292543000268958328364832987003
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Cooling technology stock
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% central chilled water systems25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
assume no change
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% air conditioners (refrigeration cycle)75%75%75%75%75%75%75%
assume no change
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Chiller stock average efficiency (COP) 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.6 5.0
Assumes that avg COP plateaus at 5 by 2050: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191000228X#fig3
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Air conditioner stock average efficiency (SEER) 14 15 15 16 16 17 18
Assume that stock avg SEER reaches 18 by 2050: https://www.energystar.gov/products/most_efficient/central_air_conditioners_and_air_source_heat_pumps
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Ventilation - Northeast2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million ft2)3196324433323415348535473605
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Ventilation technology stock average efficiency (BTU/ft2)9000900090009000900090009000
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