CRDF_Signal_Tracker_MASTER

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1	CRDF Signal Tracker™ — Framework Reference
2	The 12 signals, what each one captures, and how to score it.
3	Blank master template · Free to use · Populate with your own numbers · climatereadyre.com · © Climate-Ready Real Estate Investing
4	About This Document
5	This Framework tab is the authoritative CRDF methodology reference. It defines the 12 anchor signals, their lead/lag classifications, weighting rubrics (by asset class, geography, and hold period), threshold logic, and the named Signal Interactions. Use it to calibrate your signal observations in the Episode Example and Your Signals tabs. This tab is locked to prevent accidental editing.
6	Section 1 — The 12 CRDF Anchor Signals
7	#	Signal Name	Definition	Group	Lead/Lag	Update Cadence
8	S1	Insurance Repricing	Changes in property insurance premiums, carrier capacity, coverage terms, and reinsurance costs reflecting climate-driven risk repricing.	A: Capital & Risk Pricing	Leading	Monthly scan; quarterly analysis
9	S2	Credit & Mortgage Markets	How residential and commercial lending systems are pricing, rationing, or withdrawing credit in climate-exposed markets.	A: Capital & Risk Pricing	Leading	Monthly scan; quarterly deep-dive
10	S3	Capital Allocation Flows	Where institutional capital (PE, REITs, pension, sovereign wealth) is rotating, with climate risk as explicit or implicit driver.	A: Capital & Risk Pricing	Leading to Coincident	Quarterly
11	S4	Valuation & Appraisal Gap	The spread between current appraised/transacted value and climate-adjusted fair value; the ramp along which repricing has not yet happened.	A: Capital & Risk Pricing	Lagging* (*lag is the signal)	Quarterly
12	S5	Acute Climate Hazard	Exposure and frequency of sudden, discrete climate events: flooding, wildfire, hurricane, tornado, hail, severe wind.	B: Physical & Environmental	Coincident	Event-driven + annual review
13	S6	Chronic Climate Stress	Slower-moving phenomena: temperature increase, heat-stress days, sea-level rise, drought, subsidence, permafrost loss.	B: Physical & Environmental	Leading (slow)	Annual + interim methodology scans
14	S7	Water Stress & Allocation	Availability, legal allocation, and pricing of water for real estate operations, development, and tenant use.	B: Physical & Environmental	Leading	Quarterly; monthly in drought regions
15	S8	Disclosure, Taxonomy & Reg. Regimes	Climate-related disclosure mandates, green taxonomies, and regulatory frameworks requiring measurement, reporting, or specific action.	C: Regulatory & Policy	Leading when proposed; Coincident when enforced	Quarterly + event-driven
16	S9	Zoning, Codes & Land Use	Local regulations governing where, how, and what kind of real estate can be developed — including resilience codes, flood zoning, managed retreat.	C: Regulatory & Policy	Mixed	Quarterly + event-driven for target markets
17	S10	Migration & Demographic Shift	Movement of people, households, and businesses in response to climate stress, livability, and climate-driven economic change.	D: Demand & Fiscal	Lagging confirmation	Annual + quarterly leading-indicator scans
18	S11	Public Finance & Infrastructure	The fiscal durability and infrastructure investment capacity of municipalities, utilities, water districts, and sub-sovereign authorities.	D: Demand & Fiscal	Lagging confirmation	Quarterly
19	S12	Resilience Economics & Retrofit	The economics of making buildings/portfolios more resilient — retrofit costs, financing mechanisms, incentive programs, supply chain.	D: Demand & Fiscal	Leading when programs scale	Quarterly
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21	Section 2 — Signal Weighting by Asset Class (H = High · M = Medium · L = Low)
22	Signal	Multifamily	Industrial	Office	Retail	Hospitality	SF Residential	Land/Dev.
23	S1 — Insurance Repricing	H	M	H	H	H	H	M
24	S2 — Credit & Mortgage Markets	H	M	H	M	M	H	H
25	S3 — Capital Allocation Flows	M	H	H	M	M	L	H
26	S4 — Valuation & Appraisal Gap	H	M	H	M	M	H	M
27	S5 — Acute Climate Hazard	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
28	S6 — Chronic Climate Stress	H	M	H	M	H	H	H
29	S7 — Water Stress & Allocation	M	H	L	L	H	M	H
30	S8 — Disclosure, Taxonomy & Reg. Regimes	M	H	H	M	M	L	M
31	S9 — Zoning, Codes & Land Use	H	H	M	M	M	H	H
32	S10 — Migration & Demographic Shift	H	M	H	H	H	H	H
33	S11 — Public Finance & Infrastructure	H	H	M	H	M	H	H
34	S12 — Resilience Economics & Retrofit	M	M	H	M	M	M	M
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36	Section 3 — Signal Weighting by Geography Profile
37	Signal	Coastal	Inland	Arid/Drought	Urban Core	Mountain/Wildfire	Cold/Heat-Shift
38	S1 — Insurance Repricing	H	M	H	M	H	M
39	S2 — Credit & Mortgage Markets	H	M	M	M	H	M
40	S3 — Capital Allocation Flows	M	M	M	H	M	M
41	S4 — Valuation & Appraisal Gap	H	L	H	M	H	M
42	S5 — Acute Climate Hazard	H	M	L	M	H	M
43	S6 — Chronic Climate Stress	H	M	H	M	M	H
44	S7 — Water Stress & Allocation	M	L	H	M	M	L
45	S8 — Disclosure, Taxonomy & Reg. Regimes	M	M	M	H	M	M
46	S9 — Zoning, Codes & Land Use	H	M	H	H	H	M
47	S10 — Migration & Demographic Shift	H	M	H	H	H	M
48	S11 — Public Finance & Infrastructure	H	M	H	M	H	M
49	S12 — Resilience Economics & Retrofit	M	M	M	H	M	M
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51	Section 4 — Signal Weighting by Hold Period
52	Hold Period	Signals Weighted Highest
53	Short (<3 yrs)	S1 Insurance, S2 Credit, S3 Capital Allocation, S5 Acute Hazard — leading indicators dominate. Chronic signals discounted.
54	Medium (3–7 yrs)	All 12 weighted; Group A and Group B receive slightly higher weight; Group D partially discounted.
55	Long (7–15 yrs)	S6 Chronic Stress, S10 Migration, S11 Public Finance gain weight; Group A remains high; S12 Resilience Retrofit upweighted.
56	Very Long / Core (>15 yrs)	S6 Chronic Stress, S7 Water, S10 Migration, S11 Public Finance become dominant composite drivers; short-cycle signals reduced to monitor-only.
57
58	Section 5 — Signal Threshold Logic (Scoring: Green = 1 · Yellow = 2 · Red = 3)
59	Signal	Green — Low Risk / Durable	Yellow — Watch / Monitor	Red — Stressed / Adverse
60	S1	Premiums stable or rising <5% YoY. Multiple carriers competing for business.	Premiums up 5–20% YoY. Some carriers pausing new business.	Premiums up >20% YoY OR carrier withdrawal announced. FAIR plan/government-of-last-resort over-enrolling.
61	S2	Normal lender appetite. Standard covenants.	Lender selectivity evident. Covenant tightening in target market.	Lender retreat from market. GSE/equivalent pulling back. Shadow credit replacing mainstream.
62	S3	Net positive institutional allocation to market. GRESB ratings stable/improving.	Flows flat. Some dispersion of allocator conviction.	Net outflow of institutional capital. Public REITs divesting. Fund targeting away from market.
63	S4	Gap <5%. Appraisers and transactions broadly consistent.	Gap of 5–15%. Appraisers beginning to incorporate climate adjustments.	Gap >15%. Appraisal methodology lags material physical risk — repricing reservoir building.
64	S5	Low historical and projected exposure. No recent catastrophe events.	Moderate exposure. 1+ significant event in past 5 years.	High exposure. Multiple events in past 5 years. Return-period revisions increasing expected loss.
65	S6	Low projected exposure over 30-yr horizon across all stressors.	Moderate projected exposure on 1–2 stressors.	High projected exposure on 2+ stressors (heat, SLR, drought, subsidence) within hold period.
66	S7	Abundant supply. Stable legal/regulatory allocation regime.	Periodic scarcity. Allocation regime stressed but functional.	Structural scarcity, declining supply, or allocation under crisis. Development restrictions likely or in place.
67	S8	Jurisdiction neutral / voluntary regime. Low compliance cost.	Mandatory disclosure proposed or partial. Preparation cost rising.	Mandatory disclosure in force. Non-compliance risk real. Building performance standards binding.
68	S9	Stable code regime. Predictable permitting.	Code updates pending. Permitting unpredictability rising.	New resilience code requirements in force. Managed retreat / downzoning active. Buildable envelope contracting.
69	S10	Net positive migration. Household formation stable or growing.	Flat migration. Some outbound movement of high-income households.	Sustained net outmigration. Declining household formation. Business relocation outbound.
70	S11	Stable or improving muni credit. Full CIP funding. Low disaster-aid dependency.	Credit watch-negative. CIP underfunded. Episodic disaster aid.	Downgraded credit. CIP unfunded. Sustained disaster-aid dependency. Post-event recovery slow.
71	S12	Robust financing programs. Supply chain for resilient materials healthy. Incentive uptake growing.	Some financing programs; constrained incentives. Supply chain tight.	Limited financing mechanisms. Incentives expiring or absent. Supply chain failure for resilient components.
72
73	Section 6 — Signal Interactions Matrix
74	Interaction Name	Signals	What It Indicates
75	Compounding Refinance Risk	S1 × S2	Insurance cost increases combined with lender retreat produce leveraged deals that cannot be refinanced on original terms. Early warning 18–36 months before realized distress.
76	Repricing Velocity	S4 × S5/S6	The gap between current and climate-adjusted value multiplied by the trajectory of physical risk. High velocity = repricing event within 2–5 years.
77	Capital Drought Signal	S3 × S11	Institutional capital retreat combined with municipal fiscal stress. Indicates sustained out-performance by non-stressed markets and high-multiple compression in stressed ones.
78	Disclosure-Driven Repricing	S8 × S4	Mandatory disclosure forces valuation to reprice. In mandatory-disclosure jurisdictions the appraisal gap closes faster than in voluntary regimes.
79	Managed Retreat Risk	S5 × S9 × S11	Acute hazard + managed-retreat policy + municipal fiscal pressure. Indicates jurisdiction may not rebuild after next event, producing permanent value loss.
80	Resilience Arbitrage	S12 × S4 × S1	Retrofit financing availability + valuation gap + insurance repricing = recoverable-discount asset opportunities: buy cheap, retrofit, reprice.
81	In-Migration Pricing Power	S10 × S6	Net in-migration into markets benefiting from chronic-stress relative advantage. Indicates durable rent pricing power over medium and long holds.
82	Water-Bounded Development	S7 × S9 × S3	Water stress + land-use restriction + capital targeting. Indicates near-term development moratorium reshaping the supply side of a market.
83	Insurer-Led Market Exit	S1 × S2 × S11	Carrier withdrawal + lender retreat + government-of-last-resort over-enrollment = market entering involuntary contraction. Exit or avoid.
84	Retrofit-Led Upzoning	S9 × S12 × S8	Building code requiring resilience features + retrofit financing + disclosure pressure = forced improvement raising the competitive floor on existing stock.
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