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For full context, see GiveWell's review of SCI
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Note: Analysis primarily as of October 2014; small updates in 2015
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Summary of Cost per Treatment Estimates
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More details and source notes are below
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Grey text color indicates formula does currency conversion.
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Cost per treatmentCost per treatment, excluding drugs% of costs (for reference across estimates)TreatmentsGBP CostsUSD Costs
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Estimate fromGBPUSDGBPUSDSCI costs, excluding drugsDrug costsGovernment costsTotal costsTotal treatmentsSCI costs, excluding drugsDrug costsGovernment costsTotal costsSCI costs, excluding drugsDrug costsGovernment costsTotal costs
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SCI's recent programs£0.79$1.26£0.57$0.9142%28%30%100%40,856,690£13,636,022£9,043,582£9,719,830£32,399,434$21,607,494$14,330,363$15,401,939$51,339,797
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SCI's recent programs, including research costs£0.83$1.32£0.61$0.9743%27%30%100%40,856,690£14,731,393£9,043,582£10,189,275£33,964,249$23,343,208$14,330,363$16,145,816$53,819,387
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SCI's early programs (inflation-adjusted to 2016 GBP and 2016 USD)£1.25$1.76£1.03$1.4552%18%30%100%50,360,000£32,896,537£11,147,129£18,875,857£62,919,523$46,305,166$15,690,698$26,569,656$88,565,521
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In the below sections, bold lines are numbers that are referenced in the summary table above
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Drug costs (praziquantel)
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To calculate drug costs, we focus on the data we have available, primarily purchases by Crown Agents as part of the ICOSA program funded by DFID. Note, we use the same value for all programs, though the price has increased over the last 10 years.
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SCI stated that 20 pence per treatment, which lines up with our analysis when excluding wastage, is a reasonable estimate. "Praziquantel leaving the factory gate was as low as 7 cents per tablet 10 years ago. Now it is 10 cents per tablet. That is cents not pence. With insurance and shipping the cost at the receiving country is about 12 cents - or taking a 1.66 exchange rate say 8 pence per tablet = 20 pence per child at 2.5 tablets on average." Alan Fenwick, SCI Director, email to GiveWell, October 23, 2014
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DataSourceNotes
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Total spend£10,135,290
Crown Agents Total ICOSA Procurement Spend (updated 2014)
The units in the source file are not labelled. We have assumed the figures are in GBP.
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Total number of tablets procured and delivered by March 2014127,191,000
SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014, Pg 12 (Table 3).
This includes a large number of tablets held in reserve and not yet delivered as of March 2014.
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Drug cost per tablet£0.08GiveWell calculation.
For reference, today this is about: $0.11.
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Wastage assumption10%GiveWell judgment.
This is the percentage of drugs we assume are wasted. We do not have data on actual wastage so are intuitively hypothesizing what seems reasonable. We note that a similar assumption was discussed in an paper we found (Utroska et al. 1989), though this is quite dated and we do not know how the authors arrived at 10%.
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Drug costs per tablet, accounting for wastage£0.09
GiveWell calculation.
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Average number of tablets per treatment2.5
SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014, Pg 12.
This is consistent with a variety of other sources.
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Drug costs per treatment, accounting for wastage£0.22
GiveWell calculation.
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Government costs
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For all of our analysis, we use a uniform percentage of total costs to estimate the share of the costs that the government incurs.
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Sources and notes: See "Shortcomings on our analysis" section section of review on SCI: http://www.givewell.org/node/2365#Shortcomingsofouranalysis
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Government's share of total treatment costs30%
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SCI's recent programs, SCI costs
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This uses all of the ICOSA programs, which are (partially) funded by a grant from DFID.
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Time period: First five years of program (October 2010 through March 2015). See notes for exceptions.
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Programs included: for full time period- Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zanzibar; starting in 2014- Ethiopia and DRC
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DataSourceNotes
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USD per GBP, FY1-FY41.58
GiveWell calculation.
For simplicity, taking the simple average of yearly average GBP/USD rate from 2011 through 2013 (for FY1-FY4 spending).
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Schistosomiasis treatments, FY1-545,396,322
SCI report to DFID (September 2015), Pgs 12-13.
We believe this number does not include about 3 million treatments in both Ethiopia and Mozambique that were planned for FY5 (2014/2015) but were slightly delayed into the next year.
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Adjustment rate for reported treatments0.90
GiveWell summary of SCI coverage surveys
Median adjustment factor for reported data
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Adjusted # of schistosomiasis treatments, FY1-540,856,690
GiveWell calculation
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DFID award, total (as of May 2014)£10,537,440
SCI advisory board financial report (June 2014), Slide 3
£10.5 million is reinforced by other documents. For example, see SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014, Page 4.
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DFID award, balance available (as of May 2014)£3,645,604
SCI advisory board financial report (June 2014), Slide 11
This appears to be the amount of the first DFID grant award that has not been spent as of May 2014. SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014 does not report total actual spending. We are unsure what "Approx £2 million remaining" (Slide 8 of same source) refers to.
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DFID award, spent (as of May 2014)£6,891,836GiveWell calculation
This is the implied amount of the £10.5 million grant from DFID that SCI had spent as of May 2014. Ideally, we would exclude April and May 2014 from this figure.
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Unrestricted funding, original ICOSA programs, program spending (through March 2014)£631,283
GiveWell summary of SCI finances (October 2014), Sheet Combined with previous updates. GiveWell calculated the total from each of the 9 original program lines for each of the 3 time periods November 2011 through March 2014 and then converted from USD to GBP (for comparison with DFID spending).
We ignore unrestricted funds spent prior to November 2011, which we believe to be small (see details on unrestricted funding in SCI review).
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Unrestricted funding, HQ costs (through March 2014)£333,374
GiveWell summary of SCI finances (October 2014), Sheet Combined with previous updates. GiveWell calculated the total from the "operating costs" line item for each of the 3 time periods November 2011 through March 2014 and then converted from USD to GBP (for comparison with DFID spending).
It is possible that operating costs are just one part of HQ costs, but we don't know of other line items that clearly make sense to include.
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Unrestricted funding, total spend (through March 2014)£2,546,587
GiveWell summary of SCI finances (October 2014), Sheet Combined with previous updates. GiveWell calculated the total from the "total spending" line for each of the 3 time periods November 2011 through March 2014 and then converted from USD to GBP (for comparison with DFID spending).
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Unrestricted funding, % non-HQ costs, original ICOSA programs (through March 2014)29%GiveWell calculation
For context, a large amount of the remaining 70% of unrestricted spending was spent in Ethiopia (about £1 million).
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Unrestricted funding, HQ costs, original ICOSA programs (through March 2014)£95,089GiveWell calculation
Allocating HQ costs to ICOSA under rough assumption that every £ of unrestricted (non-HQ) spending requires the same amount of HQ support.
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Unrestricted funding, total spend, original ICOSA programs (through March 2014)£726,372GiveWell calculation
It is possible this includes some drug purchases, which we'd ideally exclude here to avoid double counting. We expect it is unlikely any unrestricted funds have been used for this purpose given that DFID has allocated additional funding for drug purchases.
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Other funding, ICOSA program spend (through March 2014)£102,152
SCI advisory board financial report (June 2014), Slide 3
Vitol funded mapping in Cote d'Ivoire; we use "Expended (incl. commitments)" since (according to the same source) this mapping has been completed (so we don't expect there are outstanding commitments). Other than this, we are not aware of any other sources of funding going towards these programs.
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SCI's spending, Ethiopia + DRC, FY4 (2013/2014)£721,183
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement. Sum of relevant programs 2013/2014 total program expenditures
We believe this to be the most accurate source for these data. As a check, we had previously reported about GBP 900,000 spending of unrestricted funding in Ethiopia from Nov 2011 - March 2014, GiveWell summary of SCI finances (October 2014)
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Country expenditures, total, FY4 (2013/14)£3,021,975
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement.
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% country expeditures on Ethiopia + DRC programs, FY4 (2013/14)24%GiveWell calculation-
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Total central expenditures, FY4 (2013/14)£1,211,342
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement.
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Central expenditures for Ethiopia + DRC, FY4 (2013/14)£289,082GiveWell calculation
Allocating central expenditures under rough assumption that every £ of country expenditure requires the same amount of central support.
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SCI's spending in Ethiopia + DRC, excluding drugs, FY4£1,010,265GiveWell calculation
We are unsure but expect that spending in these two programs prior to FY4 was relatively small.
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SCI's spending, excluding drugs, FY1-4£8,730,625GiveWell calculation
SCI shared detailed monthly expenses with us (GiveWell analysis of SCI expense details 16 June 2014 (unpublished)), which show totals of £8.5 and £8.7 million spent in original nine ICOSA countries through April 2014. It is not clear to us what explains the difference compared to the ~£7 million we calculate here (excluding Ethiopia/DRC). However, it appears that a spreadsheet error double counts some line items, and correcting this reduces the total to £7.9 million (of which 0.1 million is in April 2014, which we'd exclude for comparison). If these inferences are incorrect and we are actually missing ~£1 million in costs, our cost per treatment is too low by about $0.06. Either way, the details give us some confidence that large buckets (e.g. of SCI salaries and spending through sub-contracts) are not excluded from our analysis. Note, It is possible that some of the difference includes costs we would want to exclude here (e.g. drug purchases, or research programs unrelated to these treatments).
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Country expenditures, ICOSA programs, FY5 (2014/15)£3,008,260
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement. Sum of relevant programs 2014/2015 total program expenditures
Using this report to update the previous reports on FY1-4 spending.
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Country expenditures, total, FY5 (2014/15)£3,714,172
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement.
We are not certain but believe that this spending does not include any drug costs (if it does, this cost is over-stated since drug costs are accounted for separately in this spreadsheet).
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% country expeditures on ICOSA programs, FY5 (2014/15)81%GiveWell calculation-
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Total central expenditures, FY5 (2014/15)£658,732
SCI financial statement 2013/14 and 2014/15 (revised October 2015), sheet Revised Fin Statement.
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Central expenditures for ICOSA programs, FY5 (2014/15)£533,534GiveWell calculation
Allocating central expenditures to ICOSA under rough assumption that every £ of country expenditure requires the same amount of central support.
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SCI's spending, excluding drugs, FY5 (2014/15)£3,541,794GiveWell calculation-
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SCI's spending, excluding drugs, FY1-5£12,272,419GiveWell calculation
We are uncertain if these figures result in an accurate total of FY1-5 spending. It is possible that some spending is missing or double counted.
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Portion of SCI's costs paid by Imperial College10%
GiveWell estimate, informed by GiveWell's non-verbatim summary of a conversation with Wendy Harrison and Najwa Al Abdallah on September 8, 2015
This is a rough estimate. Imperial College supports SCI, for example, covering some legal and administrative expenses. These are not included in SCI's reported spending. SCI told us that 6% of it's DFID grant was allocated to this but that it received more than that covered, so 10% seemed like a plausible estimate.
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SCI's total costs, excluding drugs£13,636,022
GiveWell calculation
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Cost per treatment for SCI, excluding drugs£0.33GiveWell calculation
For reference, SCI reported £0.40 per treatment (which we believe includes little or no drug costs) on the first three years of the ICOSA program (with ~12 million treatments delivered at that point): "This gives a direct financial cost per treatment of 40 pence. These figures are broadly representative of other implementation projects in SCI but do not include funds allocated to advocacy and fundraising." SCI report to GiveWell (September 2013), Pg 1.
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During the ICOSA programs, there has been additional spending for operational research. We are not certain that these expenses did not lead to some of the treatments counted in the ICOSA programs (either directly, as part of the research projects, or indirectly through improved operations due to the research), so we look at these as possible additional costs to get a more conservative estimate.
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Operational research expenses, FY1-4£1,095,371
SCI advisory board financial report (June 2014), Slides 5, 17, 21. Sum of "actual spend" for SCORE and CIFF funding (from bar charts on slides 17 and 21) and "expended (incl. commitments)" (from table on slide 5) for Comic Relief (we did not have an estimate of how much of this was committed but not yet spent).
For reference, using current exchange rates this is about $1.5 million. We exclude the "Control of Cysticercosis" grant as it seems unlikely it led to deworming treatments. SCORE studies are in Niger and Mozambique, CIFF grant is in Liberia and Uganda, and Comic Relief funding is in Malawi.
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Operational research expenses, FY5£0GiveWell assumption
We do not include any research costs for FY5 since we have not seen data for these.
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Costs for SCI, excluding drugs, including research£14,731,393
GiveWell calculation
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Sub-totals (for reference):
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DFID spending, ICOSA programs, overseas spending£4,859,361
GiveWell calculated the total from country figures in SCI advisory board financial report (June 2014), Slide 8.
We are not confident in this estimate (it seems likely that some of the funds were transferred to the country but not yet spent such that it is over-stating the actual cost) and see an alternative that would be substantially different (explained in rest of note), but this is simply used to look at breakdown between program and HQ buckets and does not affect overall cost per treatment. SCI ICOSA Mid-Year Report 2014 shows "direct financial cost per treatment" data by program, which implies a total of £2.7 million spent through March 2014 (details in unpublished SCI cost per treatment (October 2014) (internal 2015 revisions) using data from Pgs 8-9 (for treatments by country) and Pg 18 (for costs per treatment by country)). This suggests this number might be overstated by GBP2.1 million.
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DFID spending, ICOSA programs, HQ costs£2,032,475GiveWell calculationSee above note
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Total program costs£5,592,796GiveWell calculation
This includes all of the "other funding" category.
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Total HQ costs£2,127,564GiveWell calculation-
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Total HQ costs % of total costs28%GiveWell calculation
For comparison, SCI reported to us in 2013 that HQ costs were about 48% of their total costs. See http://www.givewell.org/node/2365#BreakdownofSCIsspending
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SCI's early programs, SCI costs (inflation-adjusted)
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This estimate relies primarily on: SCI, Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI.
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which is available here:
http://www.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/SCI/SCI%20country%20table.xls
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Time period: It shows data from 2003 (roughly the start of SCI programs) through about 2009 (the end date isn't explicit). We are assuming that SCI is reporting consistent funding and treatment data (i.e. that this funding, and only this funding, was spent to deliver these treatments).
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Programs included: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia, and Zanzibar.
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DataSourceNotes
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Schistosomiasis treatments50,360,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
We are not including treatments "for all NTDs." Potentially should include 24 million additional treatments. See review for further explanation.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, from Gates$23,000,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
We assume all of the "funding invested in country" was spent to deliver the treatments that are reported. If some was transferred to country for treatments that had not yet been reported, then our costs are overstated.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, by USAID$5,200,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
We assume all of the "funding invested in country" was spent to deliver the treatments that are reported. If some was transferred to country for treatments that had not yet been reported, then our costs are overstated.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, from Geneva Global and others$6,730,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
We assume all of the "funding invested in country" was spent to deliver the treatments that are reported. If some was transferred to country for treatments that had not yet been reported, then our costs are overstated.
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SCI management costs and fees, from Gates$5,700,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
It is possible (though we believe unlikely) that these managements costs are a subset of the "funding invested in country" counted above. We would be double-counting these if that were the case.
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SCI management costs and fees, by USAID$500,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
It is possible (though we believe unlikely) that these managements costs are a subset of the "funding invested in country" counted above. We would be double-counting these if that were the case.
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SCI management costs and fees, from Geneva Global and others$500,000
SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI
It is possible (though we believe unlikely) that these managements costs are a subset of the "funding invested in country" counted above. We would be double-counting these if that were the case.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, from Gates, in 2016 USD$30,421,582
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
Inflation-adjusted from 2002 USD. Gates Foundation funding appears to have largely granted in 2002: http://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2002/06/OPP13122. Some funding from the Gates Foundation appears to have been granted in 2006 (see http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/schistosomiasis-control-initiative#Largegrants; we don't see this listed on the Gates Foundation's website). For the inflation adjustment we assume that all the funding was granted in 2003, since we would guess the Gates Foundation's large initial grants in 2003 make up a large proportion of this funding.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, by USAID, in 2016 USD$6,137,785
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
Inflation-adjusted from 2006 USD. USAID funding initiated in 2006. See http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/schistosomiasis-control-initiative#Largegrants.
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Funding invested in country through SCI, from Geneva Global and others, in 2016 USD$7,983,488
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
SCI received $6 million in 2006, $650,000 in 2003, and $55,000 in 2009, SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI. Inflation adjusted by year.
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SCI management costs and fees, from Gates, in 2016 USD$7,539,262
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
Inflation-adjusted from 2002 USD. Gates Foundation funding appears to have largely granted in 2002: http://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2002/06/OPP13122. Some funding from the Gates Foundation appears to have been granted in 2006 (see http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/schistosomiasis-control-initiative#Largegrants; we don't see this listed on the Gates Foundation's website). For the inflation adjustment we assume that all the funding was granted in 2003, since we would guess the Gates Foundation's large initial grants in 2003 make up a large proportion of this funding.
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SCI management costs and fees, by USAID in 2016 USD$590,172
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
Inflation-adjusted from 2006 USD. USAID funding initiated in 2006. See http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/schistosomiasis-control-initiative#Largegrants.
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SCI management costs and fees, from Geneva Global and others, in 2016 USD$590,172
US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?cu
Inflation-adjusted from 2006 USD. SCI appears to have recieved most funding from Geneva Global and others in 2006, SCI Summary sheet of treatments instigated and overseen by SCI