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AAPL9/309/309/309/309/30PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
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20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038
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Revenues$170,910$182,795$233,715$215,639$229,234$262,473$296,726$331,576$366,625$401,504$435,881$469,470$502,029$533,364$563,327$591,808$618,736$644,075$667,814$689,966$710,564$729,656$747,301$763,565$778,521$792,245
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Rev Growth %7.0%27.9%-7.7%6.3%14.5%13.1%11.7%10.6%9.5%8.6%7.7%6.9%6.2%5.6%5.1%4.6%4.1%3.7%3.3%3.0%2.7%2.4%2.2%2.0%1.8%
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Cost of Sales$106,606$112,258$140,089$131,376$141,048
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Gross Margin$64,304$70,537$93,626$84,263$88,186$101,744$115,597$129,820$144,260$158,774$173,230$187,512$201,519$215,168$228,391$241,138$253,371$265,066$276,210$286,799$296,838$306,337$315,314$323,787$331,780$339,317
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As % of Rev37.6%38.6%40.1%39.1%38.5%38.8%39.0%39.2%39.3%39.5%39.7%39.9%40.1%40.3%40.5%40.7%40.9%41.2%41.4%41.6%41.8%42.0%42.2%42.4%42.6%42.8%
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Operating Expenses$15,305$18,034$22,296$24,239$26,842$30,734$34,397$38,053$41,655$45,161$48,538$51,755$54,791$57,629$60,258$62,671$64,868$66,849$68,620$70,187$71,559$72,747$73,761$74,613$75,314$75,875
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As % of Rev9.0%9.9%9.5%11.2%11.7%11.7%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.2%11.1%11.0%10.9%10.8%10.7%10.6%10.5%10.4%10.3%10.2%10.1%10.0%9.9%9.8%9.7%9.6%
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Operating Income$48,999$52,503$71,330$60,024$61,344$71,010$81,199$91,766$102,605$113,612$124,692$135,757$146,728$157,539$168,134$178,467$188,503$198,217$207,590$216,612$225,278$233,590$241,552$249,174$256,466$263,442
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As % of Rev28.7%28.7%30.5%27.8%26.8%27.1%27.4%27.7%28.0%28.3%28.6%28.9%29.2%29.5%29.8%30.2%30.5%30.8%31.1%31.4%31.7%32.0%32.3%32.6%32.9%33.3%
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Tax$13,118$13,973$19,121$15,685$15,738$18,744$21,433$24,222$27,083$29,989$32,913$35,834$38,730$41,583$44,380$47,108$49,757$52,321$54,795$57,176$59,464$61,658$63,760$65,771$67,696$69,537
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As % of OI26.8%26.6%26.8%26.1%25.7%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%26.4%
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Net Operating Profit After Taxes$35,881$38,530$52,209$44,339$45,606$52,266$59,766$67,544$75,522$83,624$91,779$99,923$107,998$115,955$123,753$131,359$138,746$145,896$152,795$159,436$165,814$171,932$177,793$183,403$188,770$193,904
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Adjustment for Non-Cash Expenses$6,211$7,769$12,654$2,707-$1,878$1,832$2,099$2,375$2,659$2,948$3,239$3,529$3,817$4,101$4,379$4,650$4,913$5,167$5,412$5,647$5,872$6,087$6,292$6,488$6,674$6,852
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(+) Depreciation & Amortization$6,757$7,946$11,257$10,505$10,157$11,738$13,403$15,127$16,893$18,685$20,488$22,287$24,071$25,829$27,553$29,236$30,872$32,457$33,990$35,469$36,893$38,263$39,580$40,846$42,063$43,232
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As % of Rev4.0%4.3%4.8%4.9%4.4%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.8%4.8%4.9%4.9%5.0%5.0%5.1%5.1%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.3%5.4%5.5%
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(+/-) Deferred Income Taxes$1,141$2,347$1,382$4,938$5,966$3,828$4,377$4,947$5,531$6,124$6,722$7,318$7,910$8,492$9,064$9,621$10,162$10,685$11,191$11,677$12,144$12,592$13,021$13,432$13,825$14,201
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As % of Taxes8.7%16.8%7.2%31.5%37.9%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%20.4%
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Net Change in Working Capital$6,478$7,047$11,262-$2-$5,550$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0
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As % in Change of Rev59.3%22.1%0.0%-40.8%
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As % of Rev3.8%3.9%4.8%0.0%-2.4%
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(-) Capital Expenditures-$8,165-$9,571-$11,247-$12,734-$12,451-$13,734-$15,681-$17,698-$19,765-$21,862-$23,971-$26,076-$28,163-$30,221-$32,237-$34,206-$36,120-$37,975-$39,769-$41,499-$43,165-$44,768-$46,309-$47,790-$49,213-$50,582
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As % of Rev-4.8%-5.2%-4.8%-5.9%-5.4%-5.2%-5.3%-5.3%-5.4%-5.4%-5.5%-5.6%-5.6%-5.7%-5.7%-5.8%-5.8%-5.9%-6.0%-6.0%-6.1%-6.1%-6.2%-6.3%-6.3%-6.4%
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As % of D&A-120.8%-120.5%-99.9%-121.2%-122.6%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%-117.0%
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Unlevered Free Cash Flow$42,092$46,299$64,863$47,046$43,728$54,099$61,865$69,919$78,181$86,572$95,018$103,452$111,815$120,056$128,133$136,010$143,660$151,063$158,207$165,082$171,686$178,019$184,085$189,891$195,444$200,756
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FCF Growth %10.0%40.1%-27.5%-7.1%23.7%14.4%13.0%11.8%10.7%9.8%8.9%8.1%7.4%6.7%6.1%5.6%5.2%4.7%4.3%4.0%3.7%3.4%3.2%2.9%2.7%
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Discount Period0.251.252.253.254.255.256.257.258.259.2510.2511.2512.2513.2514.2515.2516.2517.2518.2519.2520.25
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Discount Rate7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
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PV of Unlevered FCF$56,848$60,046$62,749$64,937$66,610$67,778$68,465$68,702$68,527$67,981$67,107$65,949$64,549$62,948$61,183$59,290$57,299$55,240$53,136$51,009
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PV of 10 Year Cash Flow$652,642
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Enterprise Value$980,000$980,000
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Revenue Multiple4.33.74.0
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Op In Multiple16.013.814.9
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FCF Multiple22.418.120.3
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TV as Multiple of Rev$2,477,676
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TV as Multiple of Op In$2,806,471
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TV as Multiple of FCF$2,910,999
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Average TV$2,731,715
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PV of Avg TV$1,276,051
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Total PV (Intrinsic Value)$1,928,693
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Upside96.8%
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