Houseestimate.xlsx

	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	AG	AH
1		11.00
2	House District Polling Avg	11.6
3	Predicted Generic Ballot	11.0	Swing	12.1	Seats by Republican Margin					Seats by Democratic Margin
4		11.00	GOP	Margin	15+	10 - 15	5-10	5 -2.5	Under 2.5	Under 2.5	5 -2.5	5-10	10 - 15	15+
5	Current Seats	194	241	-47	201	24	9	3	6	4	4	7	11	168
6	Clinton-Trump	205	230	-25	148	35	27	8	12	9	11	15	14	156
7	Obama-Romney	210	223	-13
8	Predicted Seats - Generic Ballot	232	204	28	116	28	30	17	13	12	6	6	13	195
9	Predicted Seats: Polls + GB	229	206	23	112	28	27	21	18	17	7	11	11	183
10	Predicted Seats - House Polling Avg	234	201	33	115	27	32	15	12	13	10	7	10	194
11	House Polling Only	221	214	7	112	27	28	21	18	17	7	11	11	183
12	Change	33	-37
13
14	Retirements by Margin	19	39		31	36	0	0	3	5	1	0	1	14
29	Prediction Rules
30	1. Add the predicted swing to the 2016 results. The Republicans won the House popular vote by 1.1%. So if the generic ballot has a 7% Democratic margin, the swing applied is 8.1%.
31	2. If the seat is open, use Presidential Results from 2012 and 2016 and adjust for Generic Ballot Performance.
32	3. If there is a poll in the last 30 days, use that poll. If not use the projected swing.															28
33	4. The generic ballot average is calculated based on last 30 days. If a pollster has more than one poll in the last 30 days, the average from that pollster is used.															156
153		DEM	GOP	Tied						Dem		GOP				184
154	Seats with no polling									Incumbents	Open	Indcumebt	Open
155	Projected Safe	181	119
156	Projected Leaning	4	28
157	No polling: Safe +Lean	185	147
158	Polling Leads (ALL)	42	59	3						Incumbent	Open	Incumbent	Open
159	Polling Lead 10+	16	21									46
160	Lead between 5 and 10	9	13												547
161	Seats leaning, based on polling or projection	210	181
162	Seats needed for Majority	8	37
163	Leads less than 5	17	25	3											617
164	Current Projection	227	206	3											1164
165	Projection if no poll	185	147												593
166	By more than 10	179	119												75574
167	By more than 5	2	15
168	By less than 5	4	13												931
169	Polls + Projection	227	206	3											0.5499462943
170	Prediction Rules
171	1. Add the predicted swing to the 2016 results. The Republicans won the House popular vote by 1.1%. So if the generic ballot has a 7% Democratic margin, the swing applied is 8.1%.
172	2. If the seat is open, use Presidential Results from 2012 and 2016 and adjust for Generic Ballot Performance.
173	3. If there is a poll in the last 30 days, use that poll. If not use the projected swing.
174	4. The generic ballot average is calculated based on last 30 days. If a pollster has more than one poll in the last 30 days, the average from that pollster is used.
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