Fair Rep Act Simulation
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ABCDEFGHIJKL
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Full ProjectionsDistrict Characteristics
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Our full projections for all 435 seats depend on the nature of the year.
Answer the question below to generate full projections.
RepublicanDemocratDistrictsSeatsTwo-Party Competitive
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Strongly Partisan Seats184184Five winner districts4422075.0%
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Four winner districts93666.7%
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How much will
the election favor
Lean Seats2118Three winner districts5416248.1%
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Democrats?Two winner districts51040.0%
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50%Swing Seats1612Single winner districts770.0%
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Default is 50.0%Total221214Total11943556.3% of districts, including 62.3% of seats
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States electing at-large24 states65 seats
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States electing from multi-winner districts26 states370 seats
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Full Projections and Data, District-by-District
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DistrictSeatsPartisanshipTwo-Party CompetitionFull ProjectionsSeat Breakdown
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Alabama-A4R + 12.6%Swing1 Democrat with 37.4%
3 Republicans with 62.6%
Strong DSwingStrong RStrong R4
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Alabama-B3R + 13.3%All projected1 Democrat with 36.7%
2 Republicans with 63.3%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Alaska-AL1R + 14.2%All projected1 Republican with 64.2%Strong R0
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Arizona-A3R + 9.0%All projected1 Democrat with 41.0%
2 Republicans with 59.0%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
19
Arizona-B3R + 7.2%All projected1 Democrat with 42.8%
2 Republicans with 57.2%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Arizona-C3R + 3.5%Lean1 Democrat with 46.5%
2 Republicans with 53.5%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Arkansas-AL4R + 14.0%Lean1 Democrat with 36.0%
3 Republicans with 64.0%
Strong DLean RStrong RStrong R4
22
California-A5R + 2.2%Swing2 Democrats with 47.8%
3 Republicans with 52.2%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
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California-B5D + 4.5%Lean3 Democrats with 54.5%
2 Republicans with 45.5%
Strong DStrong DLean DStrong RStrong R5
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California-C5D + 15.3%Swing3 Democrats with 65.3%
2 Republicans with 34.7%
Strong DStrong DStrong DSwingStrong R5
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California-D5D + 7.4%All projected3 Democrats with 57.4%
2 Republicans with 42.6%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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California-E5D + 1.1%Swing3 Democrats with 51.1%
2 Republicans with 48.9%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
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California-F5D + 20.4%Lean4 Democrats with 70.4%
1 Republican with 29.6%
Strong DStrong DStrong DLean DStrong R5
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California-G5D + 19.3%Swing4 Democrats with 69.3%
1 Republican with 30.7%
Strong DStrong DStrong DSwingStrong R5
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California-H5D + 27.2%All projected4 Democrats with 77.2%
1 Republican with 22.8%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong DStrong R0
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California-I5R + 2.5%Swing2 Democrats with 47.5%
3 Republicans with 52.5%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
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California-J5D + 10.8%Lean3 Democrats with 60.8%
2 Republicans with 39.2%
Strong DStrong DStrong DLean RStrong R5
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California-K3D + 1.8%Swing2 Democrats with 51.8%
1 Republican with 48.2%
Strong DSwingStrong R3
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Colorado-A4D + 2.0%All projected2 Democrats with 52.0%
2 Republicans with 48.0%
Strong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Colorado-B3R + 0.6%Swing1 Democrat with 49.4%
2 Republicans with 50.6%
Strong DSwingStrong R3
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Connecticut-AL5D + 6.8%All projected3 Democrats with 56.8%
2 Republicans with 43.2%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Delaware-AL1D + 7.5%All projected1 Democrat with 57.5%Strong D0
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Florida-A5D + 7.4%All projected3 Democrats with 57.4%
2 Republicans with 42.6%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Florida-B5D + 6.1%All projected3 Democrats with 56.1%
2 Republicans with 43.9%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Florida-C5R + 5.3%Lean2 Democrats with 44.7%
3 Republicans with 55.3%
Strong DStrong DLean RStrong RStrong R5
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Florida-D3R + 6.0%Lean1 Democrat with 44.0%
2 Republicans with 56.0%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Florida-E3R + 7.5%All projected1 Democrat with 42.5%
2 Republicans with 57.5%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Florida-F3R + 3.6%Lean1 Democrat with 46.4%
2 Republicans with 53.6%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Florida-G3R + 3.8%Lean1 Democrat with 46.2%
2 Republicans with 53.8%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
44
Georgia-A5R + 7.4%All projected2 Democrats with 42.6%
3 Republicans with 57.4%
Strong DStrong DStrong RStrong RStrong R0
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Georgia-B3D + 12.0%All projected2 Democrats with 62.0%
1 Republican with 38.0%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
46
Georgia-C3R + 6.9%All projected1 Democrat with 43.1%
2 Republicans with 56.9%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Georgia-D3R + 20.2%Lean1 Democrat with 29.8%
2 Republicans with 70.2%
Lean DStrong RStrong R3
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Hawaii-AL2D + 24.8%All projected2 Democrats with 74.8%Strong DStrong D0
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Idaho-AL2R + 18.2%Swing2 Republicans with 68.2%SwingStrong R2
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Illinois-A5R + 0.3%Swing2 Democrats with 49.7%
3 Republicans with 50.3%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
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Illinois-B5D + 20.2%Lean4 Democrats with 70.2%
1 Republican with 29.8%
Strong DStrong DStrong DLean DStrong R5
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Illinois-C5R + 2.8%Swing2 Democrats with 47.2%
3 Republicans with 52.8%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
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Illinois-D3D + 14.6%All projected2 Democrats with 64.6%
1 Republican with 35.4%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
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Indiana-A3R + 8.8%All projected1 Democrat with 41.2%
2 Republicans with 58.8%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Indiana-B3R + 5.4%Lean1 Democrat with 44.6%
2 Republicans with 55.4%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Indiana-C3R + 3.9%Lean1 Democrat with 46.1%
2 Republicans with 53.9%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Iowa-AL4D + 1.7%All projected2 Democrats with 51.7%
2 Republicans with 48.3%
Strong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Kansas-AL4R + 13.0%Swing1 Democrat with 37.0%
3 Republicans with 63.0%
Strong DSwingStrong RStrong R4
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Kentucky-A3R + 10.9%All projected1 Democrat with 39.1%
2 Republicans with 60.9%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Kentucky-B3R + 16.0%All projected1 Democrat with 34.0%
2 Republicans with 66.0%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Louisiana-A3R + 11.0%All projected1 Democrat with 39.0%
2 Republicans with 61.0%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Louisiana-B3R + 10.3%All projected1 Democrat with 39.7%
2 Republicans with 60.3%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
63
Maine-AL2D + 6.0%All projected1 Democrat with 56.0%
1 Republican with 44.0%
Strong DStrong R0
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Maryland-A5D + 13.3%Lean3 Democrats with 63.3%
2 Republicans with 36.7%
Strong DStrong DStrong DLean RStrong R5
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Maryland-B3D + 8.5%All projected2 Democrats with 58.5%
1 Republican with 41.5%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
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Massachusetts-A3D + 11.3%All projected2 Democrats with 61.3%
1 Republican with 38.7%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
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Massachusetts-B3D + 9.7%All projected2 Democrats with 59.7%
1 Republican with 40.3%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
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Massachusetts-C3D + 8.8%All projected2 Democrats with 58.8%
1 Republican with 41.2%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
69
Michigan-A5R + 0.0%Swing2 Democrats with 50.0%
3 Republicans with 50.0%
Strong DStrong DSwingStrong RStrong R5
70
Michigan-B3D + 3.4%Lean2 Democrats with 53.4%
1 Republican with 46.6%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
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Michigan-C3D + 15.5%All projected2 Democrats with 65.5%
1 Republican with 34.5%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
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Michigan-D3R + 5.0%Lean1 Democrat with 45.0%
2 Republicans with 55.0%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
73
Minnesota-A5D + 6.1%All projected3 Democrats with 56.1%
2 Republicans with 43.9%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
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Minnesota-B3R + 4.5%Lean1 Democrat with 45.5%
2 Republicans with 54.5%
Strong DLean RStrong R3
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Mississippi-AL4R + 8.1%Swing2 Democrats with 41.9%
2 Republicans with 58.1%
Strong DSwingStrong RStrong R4
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Missouri-A5R + 4.0%Lean2 Democrats with 46.0%
3 Republicans with 54.0%
Strong DStrong DLean RStrong RStrong R5
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Missouri-B3R + 9.8%All projected1 Democrat with 40.2%
2 Republicans with 59.8%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
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Montana-AL1R + 9.0%All projected1 Republican with 59.0%Strong R0
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Nebraska-AL3R + 12.7%All projected1 Democrat with 37.3%
2 Republicans with 62.7%
Strong DStrong RStrong R0
80
Nevada-AL4D + 1.5%All projected2 Democrats with 51.5%
2 Republicans with 48.5%
Strong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
81
New Hampshire-AL2D + 0.9%All projected1 Democrat with 50.9%
1 Republican with 49.1%
Strong DStrong R0
82
New Jersey-A3D + 12.0%All projected2 Democrats with 62.0%
1 Republican with 38.0%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
83
New Jersey-B3D + 5.1%Lean2 Democrats with 55.1%
1 Republican with 44.9%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
84
New Jersey-C3D + 5.4%Lean2 Democrats with 55.4%
1 Republican with 44.6%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
85
New Jersey-D3D + 6.4%All projected2 Democrats with 56.4%
1 Republican with 43.6%
Strong DStrong DStrong R0
86
New Mexico-AL3D + 3.4%Lean2 Democrats with 53.4%
1 Republican with 46.6%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
87
New York-A5D + 32.0%Swing4 Democrats with 82.0%
1 Republican with 18.0%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong DSwing5
88
New York-B5D + 8.1%All projected3 Democrats with 58.1%
2 Republicans with 41.9%
Strong DStrong DStrong DStrong RStrong R0
89
New York-C5D + 3.1%Lean3 Democrats with 53.1%
2 Republicans with 46.9%
Strong DStrong DLean DStrong RStrong R5
90
New York-D3D + 1.8%Swing2 Democrats with 51.8%
1 Republican with 48.2%
Strong DSwingStrong R3
91
New York-E3D + 22.9%Swing2 Democrats with 72.9%
1 Republican with 27.1%
Strong DStrong DSwing3
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New York-F3D + 4.3%Lean2 Democrats with 54.3%
1 Republican with 45.7%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
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New York-G3D + 23.7%Swing2 Democrats with 73.7%
1 Republican with 26.3%
Strong DStrong DSwing3
94
North Carolina-A5R + 5.7%Lean2 Democrats with 44.3%
3 Republicans with 55.7%
Strong DStrong DLean RStrong RStrong R5
95
North Carolina-B5R + 3.8%Lean2 Democrats with 46.2%
3 Republicans with 53.8%
Strong DStrong DLean RStrong RStrong R5
96
North Carolina-C3D + 2.0%Swing2 Democrats with 52.0%
1 Republican with 48.0%
Strong DSwingStrong R3
97
North Dakota-AL1R + 12.0%All projected1 Republican with 62.0%Strong R0
98
Ohio-A5D + 4.8%Lean3 Democrats with 54.8%
2 Republicans with 45.2%
Strong DStrong DLean DStrong RStrong R5
99
Ohio-B5R + 3.0%Lean2 Democrats with 47.0%
3 Republicans with 53.0%
Strong DStrong DLean RStrong RStrong R5
100
Ohio-C3D + 3.5%Lean2 Democrats with 53.5%
1 Republican with 46.5%
Strong DLean DStrong R3
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