Solar Sizing - ENERGY BALANCE (on grid)

	A	B	C	D	E
1	2010	2023	2030+?

2	1 GW/year	19 GW/year	25+ GW/year
3	~$1.50/Wp	$0.30–0.40	$0.10–$0.20/Wp?
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27	Component	Quantity	Unit Cost	Total Cost
28	Solar Panels	20 × 400W	$0.50/W	$4,000
29	Charge Controllers	2 × MPPT	$800 each	$1,600
30	Batteries	48 kWh LiFePO4	$200/kWh	$9,600
31	Off-Grid Inverter	8 kW	$0.15/W	$1,200
32	Installation	Complete system	-	$3,200
33	Total System Cost			$19,600
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43	Component	Quantity	Unit Cost	Total Cost
44	Solar Panels	10 × 400W	$0.50/W	$2,000
45	String Inverter	4 kW	$0.20/W	$800
46	Mounting System	Roof-mount	-	$800
47	Installation	Basic system	-	$2,400
48	Total System Cost			$6,000
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58	Component	Quantity	Unit Cost	Total Cost
59	Solar Panels	25 × 400W	$0.50/W	$5,000
60	String Inverter	10 kW	$0.20/W	$2,000
61	Mounting System	Large roof-mount	-	$1,500
62	Installation	Complex system	-	$3,500
63	Total System Cost			$12,000
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71	Policy Scenario	Export Rate	Annual Benefit	Payback Period	25-Year NPV
72	Current Full Retail	$0.120/kWh	$855/year	14.0 years	$1,357
73	Reduced Export (2025 Trend)	$0.060/kWh	$308/year	39.0 years	-$7,196
74	California NEM 3.0 Model	$0.080/kWh	$490/year	24.5 years	-$4,345
75	Avoided Cost Only	$0.035/kWh	$79/year	151.2 years	-$10,760
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87	Feature	Grid‑Tie	Hybrid Grid‑Tie	Fully Off‑Grid
88	Grid Connection	Yes	Yes	No
89	Battery Storage	Optional or none	Integrated	Required
90	Backup Power	No (unless add batteries)	Yes (automatic switchover)	Yes (solar + batteries)
91	Self‑Consumption	Low to medium	High	100%
92	Energy Independence	Low	Medium	High
93	System Complexity	Low	Medium	High
94	Upfront Cost	Lowest	Moderate	Highest
95	Ongoing Maintenance	Low	Medium	High
96	Ideal For	Grid‑connected homes & businesses	Homes wanting backup & savings	Remote locations or full autonomy
97
98
99
100	Limitation	Addressed By