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Moneypuck inside the numbers thanks to our friend "argh" from 2018-19. Thanks for always correcting my mistakes!
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Average odds for losing bets = +159 / for winning bets = +133. Average odds for away bets = +168 / home bets = +118. Both are valuable because Win% for Away bets is 43,25% (need 37,3% to break even) / for home bets is 50,21% (45,87 to break even)
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Most valuable edges (comparing win% with average odds) are, in decreasing order, 6% (79 bets), 5% (100), 7% (69), 9% (35), 4% (94). Then, it goes negative above 9% (93 bets) and with 8% (52). I noticed that 3% edge (111 bets) has a 51,35% win% with +110 average odds (47,6% to break even) so it should make profit. 2% and 1% are clearly negative.
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And I think we don't need to avoid big dogs with 3% to 7% edges, even if it becomes risky over +150/+160 (general win% of theses odds, compared to the odds needed to break even, is more or less negative over +160). These odds contribute to global positive results for each edge and, of course, we find a lot of these odds on "big" edges. Not betting a +220 dog with 6% edge is a risk to lower the good resultants of this edge.
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So to say, betting a +220 dog with 12% edge is clearly a wrong move and a sign that something's wrong with the prediction.
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3% edge= +566$. Far from 5, 6 and 7% edge, but as good as 4%. Betting only 3% to 7% would have made a profit of 5817$ (ROI 12,7%)
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18-19 tracker
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TtEQX2DhrVK3atr9GsCF8XdrnuW1U1Mbaj6p9oHEJkk/edit#gid=281682661
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Using 5dimes and Pinnacle Sportsbooks
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