SAF Project Economics

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	N	O
1	DCF Analysis: 100% SAF Fuel												Government Support
2	Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Government Funding	FAA CLEEN Program
3	Capital Costs												$4,300,000,000	$100,000,000
4	Project Construction	-$18,258,894,776.68											Gov't Investment in SAF	FAA Aviation Climate Research
5	Project Grant												$96,000,000	$50,000,000
6	DOE Loan											$0.00	DOE Loan Program	DOE Loan Rate
7	Improvements								-$25,000,000.00				$3,000,000,000	5.057%
8	Equipment	-$10,000,000.00							-$10,000,000.00				R&D Activity SAF Improvement Target	10 year note
9	Total	-$18,268,894,776.68	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$35,000,000.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	30%	4.68%
10	Operating Costs												NESTE Model to use for Delta
11	Aggregate Annual Costs		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$972,952,383.10	-$1,031,329,526.08	-$1,093,209,297.65	-$1,158,801,855.51	-$1,228,329,966.84	-$1,302,029,764.85	-$1,380,151,550.74	Cost for Facility	Tons of SAF Produced Per Year
12	Loan		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$2,010,000,000.00	1,300,000
13	Revenues												Delta Fuel Demand/Year	Gallons of SAF Produced Per year
14	Subsidies												3,900,000,000	429,325,000
15	Aggregate Annual Revenues					$2,120,865,501.75	$2,248,117,431.86	$2,383,004,477.77	$2,525,984,746.43	$2,677,543,831.22	$2,838,196,461.09	$3,008,488,248.76	50% of Delta Fuel Demand/Year	Percent of Delta's Annual Fuel Consumption
16	Net Cash Flow	-$18,268,894,776.68	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$3,093,817,884.85	$3,279,446,957.94	$3,476,213,775.41	$3,649,786,601.94	$3,905,873,798.05	$4,140,226,225.94	$4,388,639,799.49	1,950,000,000.0	11.01%
17	Discounted Cash Flow	-$18,268,894,776.68	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$2,576,360,902.47	$2,608,798,605.89	$2,641,644,716.61	$2,649,496,757.94	$2,708,582,792.93	$2,742,685,237.68	$2,777,217,049.67	Need to Scale Up Output for 50% of Delta Demand	Need to Scale Up Output for 100% of Delta Demand
18	Discount Rate	4.68%											454%	908%
19	NPV	$435,891,286.51											$$$
20	IRR	5.03%											$$$
21													Total Investment Needed to Meet 50% of Demand	Total Investment Needed to Meet 100% of Demand
22													$9,129,447,388.34	$18,258,894,776.68
23													NESTE Operating Costs/Revenues Ratio	Annual SAF Revenue
24	DCF Analysis: 50% SAF Fuel												0.459	$2,120,865,501.75
25	Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Revenue Growth Rate Assumption	Theoretical Annual Revenue at 30% more Efficient SAF
26	Capital Costs												6%	$1,484,605,851.23
27	Project Construction	-$9,129,447,388.34											At Current SAF price, years to breakeven	Years of Net Income Needed to Invest at 100%
28	Project Grant												8.609171473	39.62
29	DOE Loan											$0.00		Years of Net Income Needed to Invest at 50%
30	Improvements								-$25,000,000.00					19.81
31	Equipment	-$10,000,000.00							-$10,000,000.00				Cost of SAF
32	Total	-$9,139,447,388.34	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$35,000,000.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Government Tax Credit/Gallon	1.75
33	Operating Costs												Current Jet Fuel Cost/Gallon	2.85
34	Aggregate Annual Costs		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$972,952,383.10	-$1,031,329,526.08	-$1,093,209,297.65	-$1,158,801,855.51	-$1,228,329,966.84	-$1,302,029,764.85	-$1,380,151,550.74	Current SAF/Gallon	6.69
35	Loan		$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	Current SAF/Gallon with tax credit	4.94
36	Revenues												Ratio SAF/Jet Fuel	1.733333333
37	Subsidies
38	Aggregate Annual Revenues					$2,120,865,501.75	$2,248,117,431.86	$2,383,004,477.77	$2,525,984,746.43	$2,677,543,831.22	$2,838,196,461.09	$3,008,488,248.76
39	Net Cash Flow	-$9,139,447,388.34	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$3,093,817,884.85	$3,279,446,957.94	$3,476,213,775.41	$3,649,786,601.94	$3,905,873,798.05	$4,140,226,225.94	$4,388,639,799.49
40	Discounted Cash Flow	-$9,139,447,388.34	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00	$2,576,360,902.47	$2,608,798,605.89	$2,641,644,716.61	$2,649,496,757.94	$2,708,582,792.93	$2,742,685,237.68	$2,777,217,049.67
41	Discount Rate	4.68%
42	NPV	$9,565,338,674.85
43	IRR	16.24%
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50
51	Original models below from: https://www.iata.org/contentassets/d13875e9ed784f75bac90f000760e998/saf-project-economics.pdf
52
53
54	Example 1: Base Case
55	Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
56	Capital Costs
57	Project Construction	-250										187.5
58	Improvements						-25					17.5
59	Equipment	-10					-10					5
60	Total	-260	0	0	0	0	-35	0	0	0	0	210
61	Operating Costs
62	Aggregate Annual Costs		-5	-15	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20
63	Revenues
64	Aggregate Annual Revenues		15	25	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
65	Net Cash Flow	-260	10	10	20	20	-15	20	20	20	20	230
66	Discounted Cash Flow	-260	9.174311927	8.416799933	15.4436696	14.16850422	-9.748970794	11.92534654	10.9406849	10.03732559	9.20855559	97.15448559
67	Discount Rate	9%
68	NPV	-$83.28
69	IRR	3.82%
70
71	Example 2: $100M Grant
72	Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
73	Capital Costs
74	Project Construction	-250										187.5
75	Project Grant	100
76	Improvements						-25					17.5
77	Equipment	-10					-10					5
78	Total	-160	0	0	0	0	-35	0	0	0	0	210
79	Operating Costs
80	Aggregate Annual Costs		-5	-15	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20
81	Revenues
82	Aggregate Annual Revenues		15	25	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
83	Net Cash Flow	-160	10	10	20	20	-15	20	20	20	20	230
84	Discounted Cash Flow	-160	9.174311927	8.416799933	15.4436696	14.16850422	-9.748970794	11.92534654	10.9406849	10.03732559	9.20855559	97.15448559
85	Discount Rate	9%
86	NPV	$16.72
87	IRR	10.43%
88
89
90	Example 3: Interest Free Loan
91	Year	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
92	Capital Costs
93	Project Construction	-250										187.5
94	Interest Free Loan	100										-100
95	Improvements						-25					17.5
96	Equipment	-10					-10					5
97	Total	-160	0	0	0	0	-35	0	0	0	0	110
98	Operating Costs
99	Aggregate Annual Costs		-5	-15	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20	-20
100	Revenues