| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PRIMARIES ONLY | Comparison of Polling Models in the Democratic Primaries, 2016 | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | APPLES TO APPLES COMPARISON | (Suggestions? Prediction sites you'd like to see? reddit: u/DijonPepperberry email:tylerblack@gmail.com, twitter: @tylerblack32) | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Model | 538 Polls Only | 538 Polls+ | 538 Best | TylerPedigo | Benchmark | HAWV Raw | HAWV n>2 | RCP RAW | RCP 100% | LAST POLL | PollSavvy | PredictWise | ||||||||
6 | # of States | 24 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 15 | 26 | 19 | 28 | 24 | 28 | ||||||||
7 | |||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Average Error (ABS) | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | |||||||||
9 | +/- | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 2.43% | |||||||||
10 | standard error | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.50% | |||||||||
11 | Average Error (RAW) | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | -1.7% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | -0.1% | 1.4% | -0.51% | |||||||||
12 | +/- | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 4.34% | |||||||||
13 | standard error | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.37% | |||||||||
14 | Error Spread | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 18.2% | 13.63% | |||||||||
15 | 95% CI Error Estimate | -6.46 to 7.34 | -3.91 to 8.94 | -2.62 to 7.32 | -9.69 to 5.66 | -6.75 - 5.16 | -3.71 to 10.55 | -5.26 to 10.04 | -1.65 to 12.01 | -5.39 to 6.9 | -6.31 to 11.93 | -7.64 to 5.99 | |||||||||
16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Winners Incorrect | 3 of 24 | 3 of 24 | 3 of 24 | 3 of 28 | 4 of 28 | 6 of 25 | 4 of 15 | 4 of 26 | 4 of 28 | 3 of 24 | 3 of 28 | |||||||||
18 | Winners Incorrect (%) | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 24.0% | 26.7% | 15.4% | 21.1% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | ||||||||
19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Percentage of | 1 | point of error | 20.8% | 29.2% | 37.5% | 17.9% | 28.6% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 20.8% | |||||||
21 | predictions | 2 | points of error | 33.3% | 41.7% | 45.8% | 39.3% | 50.0% | 36.0% | 26.7% | 46.2% | 19.2% | 26.9% | 33.3% | |||||||
22 | within: | 3 | points of error | 41.7% | 45.8% | 45.8% | 57.1% | 57.1% | 44.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% | 26.9% | 38.5% | 41.7% | |||||||
23 | 4 | points of error | 62.5% | 58.3% | 66.7% | 64.3% | 67.9% | 52.0% | 40.0% | 61.5% | 50.0% | 53.8% | 54.2% | ||||||||
24 | 5 | points of error | 70.8% | 75.0% | 79.2% | 67.9% | 71.4% | 60.0% | 46.7% | 61.5% | 53.8% | 69.2% | 70.8% | ||||||||
25 | 7.5 | points of error | 87.5% | 91.7% | 91.7% | 85.7% | 96.4% | 72.0% | 60.0% | 76.9% | 69.2% | 88.5% | 91.7% | ||||||||
26 | 10 | points of error | 95.8% | 95.8% | 95.8% | 89.3% | 96.4% | 92.0% | 93.3% | 88.5% | 69.2% | 96.2% | 100.0% | ||||||||
27 | |||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Really really really missed (<10%) | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 30.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% | |||||||||
29 | |||||||||||||||||||||
30 | How close are 50% of the calls (points) | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.95 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.6 | |||||||||
31 | |||||||||||||||||||||
32 | |||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Score | 20.3 | 24.8 | 44.8 | 20.1 | 49.6 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 19.6 | 16.1 | 8.9 | 19.8 | |||||||||
34 | Rank | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | |||||||||
35 | Method used: | 538 Polls Only, by | 538 Polls Plus, by | 538 Best, Nate's | Tyler Pedigo | Benchmark Politics | How America Will | I took out any of | RealClearPolitics | As people respond | Just for fun, | Polls from Huffpo | A betting market, | ||||||||
36 | Nate Silver - a | Nate Silver, using | recommended | uses Facebook | uses demographics | Vote is a poll | the HAWV states | aggregates all | to "don't know" | this result is | weights by 538 | which seems to | |||||||||
37 | weighted analysis | State & National | approach - look at | and other online | and district-based | aggreagator that | that had <3 polls | poll results. If there | or "Deez Nuts", | what happens if | weights by recent | pull mostly from | |||||||||
38 | of recent state | polling, plus | both P+ and PO | data to generate | polling to deliver | uses logarithmic | are >1 result in | I normalized RCP's | you just take the | weights by size | PredictIt | ||||||||||
39 | 0.01210143229 | 0.0123877551 | polling | endorsements | Downside: you don't | a forecast | predictions | regression | 1 week, it reports | share to show | last poll result(s). | entropy calculation | |||||||||
40 | know which to trust | an average. | HRC vs BS = 100% | (within 1week) | Simulation w/large n | ||||||||||||||||
41 | Superior: 54.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
42 | This data is meant to be shared, but please credit /u/DijonPepperberry or Tyler Black if using for publication | ||||||||||||||||||||
43 | |||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Methodology: Scraping all websites for "Bernie %" estimation | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | |||||||||||||||||||||
46 | As of 2016-05-03 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | AG | AH | AI | AJ | AK | AL | AM | AN | AO | AP | AQ | AR | AS | AT | AU | AV | AW | AX | AY | AZ | BA | BB | BC | BD | BE | BF | BG | BH | BI | BJ | BK | BL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | This data is meant to be shared, but please credit | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | /u/DijonPepperberry or Tyler Black if using for publication | FiveThirtyEight.Com - 24 Predictions | TylerPedigo.com - 28 Predictions | BenchmarkPolitics.com - 28 Predictions | HowWillAmericaVote.com - 25 Predictions/15 Predictions | RealClearPolitics.com - 19 Predictions | PredictWise.Com (28) | Last Poll Taken (for fun) | PollSavvy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ERROR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | ABS | RAW | ABS | RAW | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ABS | RAW | State Prediction | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Average: | 3.68% | 0.88% | 3.52% | 2.08% | 54.17% | 3.08% | 1.58% | Wrong: (3) | 4.12% | -1.73% | Wrong: (3) | 3.04% | -0.92% | Wrong: (4) | 4.54% | 2.79% | Wrong: (6) | 5.49% | 3.73% | Wrong: (4) | 4.14% | 3.55% | 3.55% | -0.06% | Wrong: (4) | Wrong: (3) | 5.02% | 1.39% | Wrong: (4) | 3.56% | -0.51% | Wrong: (3) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | St.Dev: | 2.88% | 4.65% | 3.07% | 4.22% | 2.89% | 3.95% | 12.50% | 3.86% | 5.42% | 10.71% | 2.62% | 3.94% | 14.29% | 3.58% | 5.12% | 24.00% | 3.58% | 5.50% | 26.67% | 4.03% | 4.58% | 2.52% | 4.44% | -15.79% | 10.71% | 4.89% | 6.93% | 14.29% | 2.43% | 4.34% | 12.50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 538 Polls Only | 538 Polls Plus | 538 Best - 54.2% Polls+ Superiority | 3 | TylerPedigo | 3 | Benchmark Politics | 4 | HowAmericaWillVote - All Charts | 6 | HowAmericaWillVote - Sufficient Polls | 4 | RealClearPolitics RAW Poll | RealClearPolitics 100% Normalized | 4 | 3 | HowAmericaWillVote - All Charts | 4 | Pollsavvy | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Date | d | State/territory | Type | Actual Bern | State Berned? | Bern% | Bern% | Best Model? | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | Bern% | Will Bern? | Correct | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Alabama | Open primary | 19.17% | NO | 25.70% | 6.53% | -6.53% | 23.20% | 4.03% | -4.03% | PollsPlus | 4.03% | -4.03% | NO | YES | 27.14% | 7.97% | -7.97% | NO | YES | 26.00% | 6.83% | -6.83% | NO | YES | 23.00% | 3.83% | -3.83% | no | YES | 23.00% | 3.83% | -3.83% | 24.46% | 5.29% | -5.29% | no | YES | no | YES | 24.47% | 5.30% | -5.30% | no | YES | 27.20% | 8.03% | -8.03% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
10 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Arkansas | Open primary | 29.97% | NO | 36.00% | 6.03% | -6.03% | 33.20% | 3.23% | -3.23% | PollsPlus | 3.23% | -3.23% | NO | YES | 34.66% | 4.69% | -4.69% | NO | YES | 41.00% | 11.03% | -11.03% | NO | YES | 32.00% | 2.03% | -2.03% | no | YES | 28.50% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 33.33% | 3.36% | -3.36% | no | YES | no | YES | 35.96% | 5.99% | -5.99% | no | YES | 33.90% | 3.93% | -3.93% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
11 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Georgia | Open primary | 28.20% | NO | 30.50% | 2.30% | -2.30% | 28.90% | 0.70% | -0.70% | PollsPlus | 0.70% | -0.70% | NO | YES | 26.01% | 2.19% | 2.19% | NO | YES | 29.00% | 0.80% | -0.80% | NO | YES | 26.72% | 1.48% | 1.48% | no | YES | 26.72% | 1.48% | 1.48% | no | YES | 28.80% | 0.60% | -0.60% | 30.44% | 2.24% | -2.24% | no | YES | no | YES | 24.73% | 3.47% | 3.47% | no | YES | 37.00% | 8.80% | -8.80% | no | YES | ||||||||
12 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Massachusetts | Closed primary | 48.70% | NO | 44.80% | 3.90% | 3.90% | 44.80% | 3.90% | 3.90% | PollsPlus | 3.90% | 3.90% | NO | YES | 41.98% | 6.72% | 6.72% | NO | YES | 49.20% | 0.50% | -0.50% | NO | YES | 41.72% | 6.98% | 6.98% | no | YES | 41.72% | 6.98% | 6.98% | no | YES | 43.30% | 5.40% | 5.40% | 46.41% | 2.29% | 2.29% | no | YES | no | YES | 44.33% | 4.37% | 4.37% | no | YES | 47.80% | 0.90% | 0.90% | no | YES | ||||||||
13 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Oklahoma | Closed primary | 51.90% | YES | 47.50% | 4.40% | 4.40% | 47.30% | 4.60% | 4.60% | PollsOnly | 4.40% | 4.40% | NO | NO | 53.50% | 1.60% | -1.60% | YES | YES | 50.50% | 1.40% | 1.40% | YES | YES | 42.29% | 9.61% | 9.61% | no | NO | 42.29% | 9.61% | 9.61% | no | NO | 41% | 10.90% | 10.90% | 48.81% | 3.09% | 3.09% | no | NO | no | NO | 52.75% | 0.85% | -0.85% | yes | YES | 47.90% | 4.00% | 4.00% | no | NO | ||||||||
14 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Tennessee | Open primary | 32.40% | NO | 36.10% | 3.70% | -3.70% | 33.90% | 1.50% | -1.50% | PollsPlus | 1.50% | -1.50% | NO | YES | 32.74% | 0.34% | -0.34% | NO | YES | 39.00% | 6.60% | -6.60% | NO | YES | 34.00% | 1.60% | -1.60% | no | YES | 33.00% | 0.60% | -0.60% | 35.87% | 3.47% | -3.47% | no | YES | no | YES | 36.17% | 3.77% | -3.77% | no | YES | 36.90% | 4.50% | -4.50% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
15 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Texas | Open primary | 33.20% | NO | 36.10% | 2.90% | -2.90% | 32.40% | 0.80% | 0.80% | PollsPlus | 0.80% | 0.80% | NO | YES | 40.58% | 7.38% | -7.38% | NO | YES | 36.00% | 2.80% | -2.80% | NO | YES | 36.43% | 3.23% | -3.23% | no | YES | 36.43% | 3.23% | -3.23% | no | YES | 0.32 | 1.20% | 1.20% | 33.93% | 0.73% | -0.73% | no | YES | no | YES | 33.68% | 0.48% | -0.48% | no | YES | 36.30% | 3.10% | -3.10% | no | YES | ||||||||
16 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Vermont | Open primary | 86.10% | YES | 87.40% | 1.30% | -1.30% | 86.70% | 0.60% | -0.60% | PollsPlus | 0.60% | -0.60% | YES | YES | 71.33% | 14.77% | 14.77% | YES | YES | 84.00% | 2.10% | 2.10% | YES | YES | 77.91% | 8.19% | 8.19% | yes | YES | 36.41% | 8.19% | 8.19% | yes | YES | 0.845 | 1.60% | 1.60% | 89.89% | 3.79% | -3.79% | yes | YES | yes | YES | 98.85% | 12.75% | -12.75% | yes | YES | 87.80% | 1.70% | -1.70% | yes | YES | ||||||||
17 | 2016-03-01 | 0 | Virginia | Open primary | 35.20% | NO | 36.70% | 1.50% | -1.50% | 34.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | PollsPlus | 0.60% | 0.60% | NO | YES | 31.50% | 3.70% | 3.70% | NO | YES | 41.00% | 5.80% | -5.80% | NO | YES | 36.41% | 1.21% | -1.21% | no | YES | 0.348 | 0.40% | 0.40% | 28.74% | 6.46% | 6.46% | no | YES | no | YES | 39.80% | 4.60% | -4.60% | no | YES | 38.40% | 3.20% | -3.20% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
18 | 2016-03-05 | 4 | Louisiana | Closed primary | 23.20% | NO | 20.20% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 17.90% | 5.30% | 5.30% | PollsOnly | 3.00% | 3.00% | NO | YES | 33.82% | 10.62% | -10.62% | NO | YES | 25.00% | 1.80% | -1.80% | NO | YES | 18.67% | 4.53% | 4.53% | no | YES | 0.215 | 1.70% | 1.70% | 26.22% | 3.02% | -3.02% | no | YES | no | YES | 26.22% | 3.02% | -3.02% | no | YES | 25.10% | 1.90% | -1.90% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
19 | 2016-03-08 | 7 | Michigan | Open primary | 49.68% | YES | 38.30% | 11.38% | 11.38% | 37.50% | 12.18% | 12.18% | PollsOnly | 11.38% | 11.38% | NO | NO | 53.48% | 3.80% | -3.80% | YES | YES | 44.00% | 5.68% | 5.68% | NO | NO | 38.63% | 11.05% | 11.05% | no | NO | 38.63% | 11.05% | 11.05% | no | NO | 37.30% | 12.38% | 12.38% | 38.85% | 10.83% | 10.83% | no | NO | no | NO | 35.79% | 13.89% | 13.89% | no | NO | 43.60% | 6.08% | 6.08% | no | NO | ||||||||
20 | 2016-03-08 | 7 | Mississippi | Open primary | 16.50% | NO | 16.70% | 0.20% | -0.20% | 14.50% | 2.00% | 2.00% | PollsOnly | 0.20% | -0.20% | NO | YES | 18.06% | 1.56% | -1.56% | NO | YES | 19.50% | 3.00% | -3.00% | NO | YES | 11.00% | 5.50% | 5.50% | no | YES | 18.50% | 2.00% | -2.00% | 22.84% | 6.34% | -6.34% | no | YES | no | YES | 22.98% | 6.48% | -6.48% | no | YES | 21.80% | 5.30% | -5.30% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
21 | 2016-03-15 | 14 | Florida | Closed primary | 33.28% | NO | 33.80% | 0.52% | -0.52% | 32.10% | 1.18% | 1.18% | PollsOnly | 0.52% | -0.52% | NO | YES | 39.60% | 6.32% | -6.32% | NO | YES | 34.00% | 0.72% | -0.72% | NO | YES | 32.28% | 1.00% | 1.00% | no | YES | 32.28% | 1.00% | 1.00% | no | YES | 31.80% | 1.48% | 1.48% | 34.38% | 1.10% | -1.10% | no | YES | no | YES | 37.05% | 3.77% | -3.77% | no | YES | 33.90% | 0.62% | -0.62% | no | YES | ||||||||
22 | 2016-03-15 | 14 | Illinois | Open primary | 48.70% | NO | 44.30% | 4.40% | 4.40% | 44.10% | 4.60% | 4.60% | PollsOnly | 4.40% | 4.40% | NO | YES | 51.20% | 2.50% | -2.50% | YES | NO | 48.00% | 0.70% | 0.70% | NO | YES | 48.62% | 0.08% | 0.08% | yes | NO | 46.00% | 2.70% | 2.70% | 48.78% | 0.08% | -0.08% | no | YES | no | YES | 48.39% | 0.31% | 0.31% | no | YES | 43.20% | 5.50% | 5.50% | no | YES | |||||||||||||
23 | 2016-03-15 | 14 | Missouri | Open primary | 49.40% | NO | 48.10% | 1.30% | 1.30% | 48.00% | 1.40% | 1.40% | PollsOnly | 1.30% | 1.30% | NO | YES | 55.90% | 6.50% | -6.50% | YES | NO | 52.50% | 3.10% | -3.10% | YES | NO | 47.00% | 2.40% | 2.40% | yes | NO | 48.62% | 2.40% | 2.40% | yes | NO | 43.50% | 5.90% | 5.90% | 48.30% | 1.10% | 1.10% | no | YES | no | YES | 50.54% | 1.14% | -1.14% | yes | NO | 49.30% | 0.10% | 0.10% | no | YES | ||||||||
24 | 2016-03-15 | 14 | North Carolina | Closed primary | 40.87% | NO | 37.40% | 3.47% | 3.47% | 36.20% | 4.67% | 4.67% | PollsOnly | 3.47% | 3.47% | NO | YES | 41.90% | 1.03% | -1.03% | NO | YES | 40.00% | 0.87% | 0.87% | NO | YES | 35.25% | 5.62% | 5.62% | no | YES | 35.25% | 5.62% | 5.62% | no | YES | 33.00% | 7.87% | 7.87% | 36.67% | 4.20% | 4.20% | no | YES | no | YES | 36.67% | 4.20% | 4.20% | no | YES | 38.20% | 2.67% | 2.67% | no | YES | ||||||||
25 | 2016-03-15 | 14 | Ohio | Open primary | 42.70% | NO | 43.30% | 0.60% | -0.60% | 43.10% | 0.40% | -0.40% | PollsPlus | 0.40% | -0.40% | NO | YES | 48.80% | 6.10% | -6.10% | NO | YES | 46.00% | 3.30% | -3.30% | NO | YES | 41.46% | 1.24% | 1.24% | no | YES | 41.46% | 1.24% | 1.24% | no | YES | 43.00% | 0.30% | -0.30% | 45.74% | 3.04% | -3.04% | no | YES | no | YES | 45.32% | 2.62% | -2.62% | no | YES | 43.10% | 0.40% | -0.40% | no | YES | ||||||||
26 | 2016-04-05 | 35 | Wisconsin | Open primary | 56.6% | YES | 50.20% | 6.40% | 6.40% | 50.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% | PollsPlus | 6.30% | 6.30% | yes | YES | 59% | 2.40% | -2.40% | yes | YES | 55% | 1.60% | 1.60% | yes | YES | 48.88% | 7.72% | 7.7% | yes | YES | 48.01% | 7.72% | 7.72% | yes | YES | 47.90% | 8.70% | 8.70% | 51.39% | 5.21% | 5.21% | yes | YES | yes | YES | 50.50% | 0.061 | 6.1% | yes | YES | 51.80% | 4.80% | 4.80% | yes | YES | ||||||||
27 | 2016-04-19 | 49 | New York | Closed primary | 42.00% | NO | 42% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 41.30% | 0.70% | 0.70% | PollsOnly | 0.00% | 0.00% | no | YES | 40.20% | 1.80% | 1.80% | no | YES | 43% | 1.00% | -1.00% | no | YES | 41.09% | 0.91% | 0.91% | no | YES | 41.09% | 0.91% | 0.91% | no | YES | 41.40% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 43.80% | 1.80% | -1.80% | no | YES | no | YES | 40% | 0.02 | 2.00% | no | YES | 43.30% | 1.30% | -1.30% | no | YES | ||||||||
28 | 2016-04-26 | 56 | Connecticut | Closed primary | 46.40% | NO | 46.80% | 0.40% | -0.40% | 46.60% | 0.20% | -0.20% | PollsPlus | 0.20% | -0.20% | no | YES | 46.90% | 0.50% | -0.50% | no | YES | 45.00% | 1.40% | 1.40% | no | YES | 46% | 0.40% | 0.40% | no | YES | 43.70% | 2.70% | 2.70% | no | YES | no | YES | 46% | 0.004 | 0.40% | no | YES | 47.00% | 0.60% | -0.60% | no | YES | ||||||||||||||||
29 | 2016-04-26 | 56 | Delaware | Closed primary | 39.20% | NO | 39.90% | 0.70% | -0.70% | no | YES | 40% | 0.80% | -0.80% | no | YES | 38% | 1.20% | 1.20% | no | YES | 38% | 1.20% | 1.20% | no | YES | no | YES | 38% | 0.012 | 1.20% | no | YES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 2016-04-26 | 56 | Maryland | Closed primary | 33.30% | NO | 40.90% | 7.60% | -7.60% | 39.90% | 6.60% | -6.60% | PollsPlus | 6.60% | -6.60% | no | YES | 30.90% | 2.40% | 2.40% | no | YES | 33% | 0.30% | 0.30% | no | YES | 43.29% | 9.99% | -9.99% | no | YES | 43.29% | 9.99% | -9.99% | no | YES | 33.70% | 0.40% | -0.40% | no | YES | no | YES | 32% | 0.013 | 1.30% | no | YES | 38.70% | 5.40% | -5.40% | no | YES | |||||||||||
31 | 2016-04-26 | 56 | Pennsylvania | Closed primary | 43.60% | NO | 40.40% | 3.20% | 3.20% | 39.70% | 3.90% | 3.90% | PollsOnly | 3.20% | 3.20% | no | YES | 45.30% | 1.70% | -1.70% | no | YES | 43% | 0.60% | 0.60% | no | YES | 38.70% | 4.90% | 4.90% | no | YES | 38.70% | 4.90% | 4.90% | no | YES | 38.30% | 5.30% | 5.30% | no | YES | no | YES | 41% | 0.026 | 2.60% | no | YES | 41.60% | 2.00% | 2.00% | no | YES | |||||||||||
32 | 2016-04-26 | 56 | Rhode Island | Closed primary | 55.00% | YES | 49.20% | 5.80% | 5.80% | 49.30% | 5.70% | 5.70% | PollsPlus | 5.70% | 5.70% | yes | YES | 53.20% | 1.80% | 1.80% | yes | YES | 49.75% | 5.25% | 5.25% | no | NO | 44.21% | 10.79% | 10.79% | no | NO | 41.50% | 13.50% | 13.50% | no | NO | yes | YES | 49% | 0.06 | 6.00% | yes | YES | 50.60% | 4.40% | 4.40% | yes | YES | ||||||||||||||||
33 | 2016-05-03 | 63 | Indiana | Open primary | 52.70% | yes | 45.20% | 7.50% | 7.50% | 43.30% | 9.40% | 9.40% | PollsOnly | 7.50% | 7.50% | no | NO | 52.60% | 0.10% | 0.10% | yes | YES | 48% | 4.70% | 4.70% | no | NO | 44.70% | 8.00% | 8.00% | no | NO | 44.70% | 8.00% | 8.00% | no | NO | 43.20% | 9.50% | 9.50% | no | NO | no | NO | 44.50% | 0.082 | 8.20% | no | NO | 46.50% | 6.20% | 6.20% | no | NO | |||||||||||
34 | 2016-05-10 | 70 | West Virginia | Closed primary | 51.40% | yes | 51.80% | 0.40% | -0.40% | yes | YES | 57% | 5.60% | -5.60% | yes | YES | 46% | 5.40% | 5.40% | yes | YES | yes | YES | 47% | 0.044 | 4.40% | yes | YES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 2016-05-17 | 77 | Kentucky | Closed primary | 46.30% | no | 49.10% | 2.80% | -2.80% | yes | NO | 48% | 1.70% | -1.70% | no | YES | no | YES | 38% | 0.083 | 8.30% | no | YES | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 2016-05-17 | 77 | Oregon | Closed primary | 56.00% | yes | 68.90% | 12.90% | -12.90% | yes | YES | 51% | 5.00% | 5.00% | yes | YES | yes | YES | 33% | 0.23 | 23.00% | no | NO | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 2016-06-07 | 98 | California | Closed primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 2016-06-07 | 98 | Montana | Open primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 2016-06-07 | 98 | New Jersey | Closed primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 2016-06-07 | 98 | New Mexico | Closed primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 2016-06-07 | 98 | South Dakota | Closed primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 2016-06-14 | 105 | District of Columbia | Closed primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||