Public Copy of Measles Estimates
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABAC
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World 1960sSSA 2016India 2016World 2016Pre vaccine world
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population3,034,000,0003,128,000,000988,088,096988,088,0961,324,000,0001,324,000,0007,442,000,0007,442,000,0007,442,000,0007,442,000,0007,442,000,0007,442,000,000population3,034,000,0003,128,000,000
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60% of population1,820,400,0001,876,800,000592,852,858592,852,858794,400,000794,400,0004,465,200,0004,465,200,0004,465,200,0004,465,200,0004,465,200,0004,465,200,000
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year 2+ population, 60%NANA21,784,37821,784,37815,307,29415,307,29485,200,48185,200,48185,200,48185,200,48185,200,48185,200,481
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deaths7,000,0008,000,000theoretically possible deaths2,132,2234,396,569theoretically possible deaths399,994765,860theoretically possible deaths331,1373,311,3716,622,742331,1373,311,3716,622,742Cases in pre vaccine world135000000135000000
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DALYs from ^210,000,000240,000,0009,934,11399,341,134198,682,2689,934,11399,341,134198,682,268
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DALYs per person0.0692160.0767260.0013348714570.013348714570.026697429140.0013348714570.013348714570.02669742914
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death rate low0.23%0.22%death rate5.0%10.0%death rate0.7%1.3%death rate0.10%1.00%2.00%0.10%1.00%2.00%Case % of population4.45%4.32%
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death rate high0.26%0.26%
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efficacy85%99%85.0%99.0%85.0%99.0%0.850.850.850.990.990.99
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One doseTwo dosesOne doseTwo dosesOne doseTwo dosesOne doseOne doseOne doseTwo dosesTwo dosesTwo doses
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Deaths prevented with total population vaccinated - low deaths5,950,0006,930,0001,812,3902,110,901339,995395,994281,4672,814,6655,629,331327,8263,278,2576,556,515
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DALYs from ^178,500,000207,900,00054,371,69663,327,03410,199,83711,879,8108,443,99684,439,964168,879,9279,834,77298,347,722196,695,445
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60% of DALYs from ^107,100,000124,740,00032,623,01737,996,2206,119,9027,127,8865,066,39850,663,978101,327,9565,900,86359,008,633118,017,267
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Deaths prevented with total population vaccinated - high deaths6,800,0007,920,0003,737,0834,352,603650,981758,202281,4672,814,6655,629,331327,8263,278,2576,556,515
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DALYs from ^204,000,000237,600,000112,112,501130,578,08919,529,43622,746,0498,443,99684,439,964168,879,9279,834,77298,347,722196,695,445
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60% of DALYs from ^122,400,000142,560,00067,267,50078,346,85311,717,66213,647,6305,066,39850,663,978101,327,9565,900,86359,008,633118,017,267
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Vaccinated per death prevented - low deaths/low pop5104385454683,8943,34326,4402,6441,32222,7012,2701,135
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Vaccinations per DALY ^1715181613011188188447577638
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DALYs per vaccine ^ - 1 year0.058830.068520.055030.064090.007700.008970.001130.011350.022690.001320.013220.02643
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DALYs per vaccine ^ - 20 years0.648080.754820.112780.131360.016650.166550.333100.019400.193980.38796
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Vaccinated per death prevented - hi deaths/hi pop4603952642272,0341,74626,4402,6441,32222,7012,2701,135
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Vaccinations per DALY ^151398685888188447577638
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DALYs per vaccine ^ - 1 year0.065220.075960.113460.132150.014750.017180.001130.011350.022690.001320.013220.02643
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DALYs per vaccine ^ - 20 yearsNANA1.336321.556420.215950.251510.016650.166550.333100.019400.193980.38796
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Example case
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Population100100
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Deaths1010
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Vaccine efficacy0.50.75
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Deaths prevented with total population vaccinated57.5
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Vaccinated per death prevented2013.33333333
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60s DALYs total210,000,000240,000,000
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60s DALYs per person0.0692160.076726
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20% of 60s DALY total42,000,00048,000,000
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20% of 60s DALY per person0.013840.01535
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2016 DALYs total2,148,581.5112,257,646.90
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2016 DALYs per person0.00028871022710.001647090419
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Diff between 60s and 2016 DALYs per person0.0689270.075079
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Diff Total (per person * num of people)512,953,594558,739,796
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Diff between 20% 60s and 2016 DALYs per person0.013550.01370
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Diff Total (per person * num of people)100,871,854101,941,842
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2016 World pop74420000007442000000
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