Potential discontinuities included in AI Impacts investigation
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MetricEvent nameDescriptionYeartat0t1tlm0m1mlmaNhNtexpYears of past progress that occurred at onceWeighted (linear) average of exponential and linear discontinuityWeighted (geometric) average of exponential and linear discontinuityScale of discontinuityIncrease during discontinuityLog increase during discontinuityYears of past progress/length of trendYears of past progress that occurred in N years/error looking N years out [add something like this? xxx]At least 5 datapoints before potential discont.?Clear trend divergence?Pre-discont: ongoing progress or stagnation?Pre-discont: progress measured within past 20 years?Looks intuitively like a clear impressive jump relative to a going trend?Why not?Why else not relevant?Other notesFactor change over extrapolated pointFactor change over last datapointCause: in a few words, our impressionsCause: large spike in effort on metric? (0-5)Cause: tech progress? (0-5)If tech progress cause: fundamentally new approach? (0-5)Notes on causesEvidence that discont. was anticipated?Clear reason discont. might have been anticipated?How many years in advance did major governments anticipate this discontinuity? (Our guess)How much did this change the world? (0-10)Closest relevant sectorHow much did it revolutionize that sector? (0-10)Did it result in a "takeover" of the sector by one faction?Guess at effort directed at metric (1-5)Number of discontinuities in a rowDelay since last point (years)How we heard of itType of metric (performance, price, adoption, etc)Exponential or linear trend?Clear abrupt change between clear rates of growth?Growth change coincides with a discont.?Growth rate beforeGrowth rate afterHolistically good example (large)Holistically good example (moderate or large)Main researcherData sheetMain pageDate published
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171908-2771.65508386#DIV/0!17.938.790.363636363612014814
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140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.295.82220.511,4651,810.841,776.362.530.2472.9700s1notrend too shortnobody trying1.771100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
4
140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
Oregon (steamship)
18849991841.6222221884.2638892.7210.9817.1218.5632250.45108.958.881.440.0350.2311p1no
small compared to scale of trend, maybe scale of noise
very small
Does look surprising, just not very big
1.082000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
Telegraph18599991841.6222221856.6252.7210.9814.15454.7915120.352,0831,425.38922.64440.641.507138.8711p1yes32.144211https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
2nd Telegraph18679991841.62222218592.7210.98454.7935380.7116130.351,329868.19254.4134925.921.89178.2211p1yes77.804811https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.295.82220.511,4651,810.841,776.362.530.2472.9700s1notrend too shortnobody trying1.771100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Oregon (steamship)
18849991841.6222221884.2638892.7210.9817.1218.5632250.45108.958.881.440.0350.2311p1no
small compared to scale of trend, maybe scale of noise
very small
Does look surprising, just not very big
1.081000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
WWI Bomber19199991841.6222221909.752.7210.9826.0610663560.35351263.75227.0679.940.6095.1611p1yes4.0731011https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Holistically good example (moderate or large)
193999919191937.5166672.72106.00138.37174.08399866520.451916.8616.7135.710.1001.0400p1no
few points, not clear trend, since trend changed
1.262100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Lockheed Constellation
19469991919.45819392.72106.00174.0839986287.5197676630.352520.4019.37113.43576840.2181.2900p1no
few points, not clear trend, since trend changed
1.652700https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
ICBM19589991937.5166671945.7527782.72138.3711344287.5210000.006440.2524425.17292.039712.481.54163.6801p1yes
not a clear trend, but just very big compared to any plausible trend
34.7831200Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.295.82220.511,4651,810.841,776.362.530.2472.9700s1notrend too shortnobody trying1.773100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Oregon (steamship)
18849991841.6222221884.2638892.7210.9817.1218.5632250.45108.958.881.440.0350.2311p1no
small compared to scale of trend, maybe scale of noise
very small
Does look surprising, just not very big
1.084000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
WWI Bomber19199991841.6222221909.752.7210.9826.0610663560.35351263.75227.0679.940.6095.1611p1yes4.0731011https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Focke-Wulf Fw 200 Condor
193999919191937.5166672.72106.00138.37174.08399866520.451916.8616.7135.710.1001.0400p1no
sparse, not clear trend, since trend changed
1.263100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Lockheed Constellation
19469991919.45819392.72106.00174.0839986287.5197676630.352520.4019.37113.43576840.2181.2900p1no
sparse, not clear trend, since trend changed
1.653700https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Concorde19749991937.5166671958.7611112.72138.37486.0182521035.4206576950.41910.305.78549.40240450.3280.8811p1sort ofshort trend
surprising, but not huge relative to noise, sparse data, decade gap makes more gradual slope imaginable
2.1341501https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
SR-7119759991937.51666719742.72138.371035.4206571569.307060.42114.9813.02533.880.1810.5710p1sort ofunclear trend
surprising, but not wildly so, sparse, unclear trend
1.52100https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Longest Bridge Span
Chakzam Bridge
1430-27-271377105105236449440.22,2301,996.281,922.422130.2791.59010sort of
sparse data, very old
very old, unclear that we know what else existed
1.905300Michelle
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yPB8sDbWCXzmJwFbcOX6Al2ADip2P-h5ADC-X9MAoNU/edit?usp=sharing
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Longest Bridge Span
Great Suspension Bridge
1834-2713771826105236577889630.4403325.33309.883120.1880.90001no
sparse, somewhat old, unclear trend
1.54800
22
Longest Bridge Span
Niagara Clifton Bridge
1869-27182618661055771,05612601050.41411.9011.592040.0770.35101no
sparse, unclear trend
1.19300
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Longest Bridge Span
George Washington Bridge
1931-27182619291055771,850350115100.4132100.7192.411,6510.2771.28111yes
larger than scale of noise and uncertainty in trend
1.89211
24
Longest Bridge Span
Akashi-Kaikyo Bridge
1998-27182619811055774,630653219140.45636.8926.411,9020.1490.36101no
unclear trend, within plausible noise
1.411700
25
Light intensityArgon Candle1943-424-42419431.51.513200.06.00E+05440.999511,418.801,585.375.87E+051.6580.42001no
short or sparse trend
surprising, but not relative to a clear trend
45.45000
26
Rate of book production (books/century)
9006006008001.36E+041.36E+044.37E+042.02E+05330.55162517.59359.781.58E+050.6650.81000no
short, unclear trend
4.6210000Asyahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pgo0QizEMonIo11RvE2ErbyocKHXhV08EyXBYrmWVgk/edit#gid=1417825149, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ur7KC971u2hUhV-FEYFVhnKvFtyT72Ow5XLjA5ermr4/edit#gid=918335158https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
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Rate of book production (books/century)
120060060011001.36E+041.36E+042.12E+057.69E+05660.7135485.32265.965.57E+050.5600.27100no
Unclear trend, in that the scale is such that 100 year seem common from the outset
3.6310000
28
Rate of book production (books/century)
130060060012001.36E+041.36E+047.69E+051.76E+06770.7523189.1253.989.91E+050.3600.04100no
somewhat surprising
2.2910000
29
Rate of book production (books/century)
Printing Press150060060014001.36E+041.36E+042.75E+061.76E+07990.9180585.88246.521.49E+070.8060.22100no
somewhat surprising
6.4010000
30
Rate of book production (books/century)
155060060015001.36E+041.36E+041.76E+077.90E+0710100.9139433.96189.066.14E+070.6520.15100no 4.495000
31
Cotton Productivity (lb/worker/day)
Whitney's Gin1795-400017471788132.5125333420.72341.5333.882080.4260.56001no
small, sparse, noisy
2.66700
32
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Balloon1784-350000-2001783.919444252002.70E+034.00E+036401,0321,031.561,031.561.30E+030.1710.52001no
sparse, unclear trend
1.48000
33
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Balloon1804-350000-20017842520040007.28E+037501,6931,692.961,692.963.28E+030.2600.85101sort of
sparse, unclear trend
surprising1.822000
34
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Paris Gun1918-3500001783.9194441914252.70E+031.70E+044.23E+041160.48227147.10120.372.53E+040.3971.75111yes
pretty straight trend, big jump
2.49411
35
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
V2 Rocket1943-3500001783.9194441918.161111252.70E+03423008.50E+041270.4812067.0235.454.27E+040.3030.90100no
sparse, unclear trend, large jump just prior
just had a huge jump
2.012500
36
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
V2 Rocket1944-35000019141942.758333251.70E+04850001.74E+051330.81116.0414.018.90E+040.3110.38011sort ofunclear trend2.05200
37
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Pellets1958-3500001942.7583331957.641667258.50E+041.34E+068.64E+0818613534.7634.768.63E+082.8092.34111yes
clear trend, even on log scale looks crazy
644.78001
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Group index of light
Coherent Population Trapping
1995140019621994.812.42.41.65E+023.00E+03530.992227.4422.672.84E+031.2600.67011noshort18.18100Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rtAbkBsR5Jo-f7zvloi4fepxErZKpMOVoVe495F1TfM/edit?usp=sharing
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Group index of light
Electromagnetically Induced Transparency
1999140019621995.362.42.43.00E+031.76E+07640.99371,994.9040.261.76E+073.7681.11001noshort5866.67400
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"Relative effectiveness" of explosive
Fat Man194580080019420.50.51.854500550.66,8021,526,120.9485,456.464498.153.3865.96111yes2432.43311Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZh0wfCW-DrJjYLNgGW_TML-gmq1xZ44PfsfSCP5nlo/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-nuclear-weapons/
41
Maximum temperature for superconduction
NbN19411910.821910.821929.944.154.159.2616330.21411.599.336.740.2380.73001noshort, unclear1.731100Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZh0wfCW-DrJjYLNgGW_TML-gmq1xZ44PfsfSCP5nlo/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
42
Maximum temperature for superconduction
LaBaCuO419861910.821910.821973.334.154.1523.235660.22621.2915.9811.80.1790.42101no1.511300
43
Maximum temperature for superconduction
YBa2Cu3O719871910.821910.821986.004.154.153593770.35140102.9484.97580.4241.87111yes2.66111
44
Maximum temperature for superconduction
BiCaSrCu2O919881910.821910.821987.004.154.1593105880.35107.185.99120.0530.13101no
second after a big jump
1.13100
45
Max airspeed (mph)
Fairey Delta 219561903.961903.961955.646.826.82822.1113260600.11917.4715.81309.90.1390.37111yes1.38101Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m7xLC684oPjwnjLGOskV0LyO_JOeQh7G23f55ihPva4/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
46
Tallest ever structure height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-4000551362.53318,5108,509.968,509.9649.50.6821.42010noold, sparse4.81135000
47
Tallest ever structure height
Meidum Pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.591.654411,0741,074.001,074.0029.150.1660.15010noold, sparse1.474000
48
Tallest ever structure height
Washington Monument
1884-10000-10000131155160169.3990106105.66105.669.30.0250.01100no
no ongoing progress
1.0657300
49
Tallest ever structure height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000-10000188455169.3300101009,4499,448.679,448.67130.70.2480.80101no
little ongoing progress
1.77500
50
Tallest ever structure height
Empire State Building
1931-1000018841930.415169.3318.938112301918.6818.6862.10.0770.40001nounclear trend1.19100
51
Tallest ever structure height
KVLY-TV mast1963-10000188419625169.3533628.8191002019.5519.5595.80.0720.25111no
surprising, but small
1.18101
52
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-4000551362.53318,5108,509.968,509.9649.50.6821.42010noold, sparse4.81135000Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-eiffel-tower/
53
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Meidum Pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.591.654411,0741,074.001,074.0029.150.1660.15010noold, sparse1.474000
54
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Washington Monument
1884-10000-10000131155160169.3990106105.66105.669.30.0250.01100no
no ongoing progress
1.0657300
55
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000-10000188455169.3300101009,4499,448.679,448.67130.70.2480.80101no
little ongoing progress
1.77500
56
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Empire State Building
1931-1000018841930.415169.3318.938112301918.6818.6862.10.0770.40001nounclear trend1.19100
57
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Burj Khalifa2009-10000188419755169.3553829.816703231.6531.65276.80.1760.35100no
no recent progress
1.503400
58
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-4000551362.53318,5108,509.968,509.9649.50.6821.42010noold, sparse4.81135000Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-eiffel-tower/
59
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Meidum pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.591.654411,0741,074.001,074.0029.150.1660.15010noold, sparse1.474000
60
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Beauvais Cathedral
1569-10000-1000015495515115310100138138.21138.2120.0060.01100no
negative progress
1.012000
61
Tallest existing freestanding building height
St Nikolai1874-10000-10000164755142147.313130224223.58223.585.30.0160.02100no
sparse recent progress
1.0422700
62
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Rouen Cathedral
1876-10000-10000187455147.315114140307306.74306.743.70.0110.03101no
sparse recent progress
1.03200
63
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000187418845147.3169.330017405454.4154.41130.70.2485.44011yes
recent trend was only four points, so a bit questionable
1.77500
64
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Empire State Building
1931-10000187419305147.3318.938119601919.2719.2762.10.0770.34101nounclear trend1.19100
65
Tallest existing freestanding building height
Burj Khalifa2009-10000187419755147.3553829.8231003534.9134.91276.80.1760.35100no
no recent progress
1.503400
66
Tallest ever building heights
Singer Building1908122112211889140140167.5186.57331383382.61382.6119.070.0470.57001no
little recent progress
1.111900Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-burj-khalifa/
67
Tallest ever building heights
Metropolitan Life Tower
1909122112211908140140186.57213.36441320319.99319.9926.790.0580.47001no
little recent progress
1.14100
68
Tallest ever building heights
Empire State Building
1931122119081930.408333140186.57318.9381850109.649.6462.10.0770.43101no
sparse, unclear trend
1.19100
69
Tallest ever building heights
Taipei 1012004122119081998140186.57451.9509.212901313.4413.4457.30.0520.15101nounclear trend1.13600
70
Tallest ever building heights
Burj Khalifa2009122119082004140186.57509.2828131009089.8689.86318.80.2110.94111yes
trend not super clear, but big jump
1.63501
71
Ship size (BOM, assuming hyperbolic growth, using military ships as proxy for rate)
Great Eastern185816371637185515221522385322990.3619191119137.360.7760.05111yes5.97301
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
Some ambiguous discontinuities
88
89
Cotton Productivity (lb/worker/day)
Foot Gin1747-4000-40001250111432.5220.511,1784,018.322,816.2418.50.3660.220104970
90
Cotton Productivity (lb/worker/day)
Eve's Mill Gin1788-4000-400017471132.5125330.62,1838,043.734,941.9392.50.5850.38010410
91
Longest Bridge Span
Menai Suspension Bridge
1826-27-271430105105449577550.314658.9532.761280.1090.101396
92
Longest Bridge Span
Wheeling Suspension Bridge
1849-27137718341052368891010740.47053.4049.051210.0550.15015
93
Longest Bridge Span
Golden Gate Bridge
1937-27182619311055773,501420016110.41913.3010.816990.0790.1816
94
Max land speed (mph)
Land speed record for wheel-driven cars
19651,898.961939.64661964.756839.24368.8413.2434.034650.21211.6011.5920.830.0210.471Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sezw2CCJ3WxcrAcqsw7ZWK1rJoxJkVYxW9HljWVe-vg/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
95
Max land speed (mph)
19651,898.961939.64661964.76539.24368.8434.03468.7194760.21313.0413.0334.6890.0330.531
96
Max land speed (mph)
19981,898.961965.87671983.761639.24597.3633.7605714.0675530.22524.7424.7080.30650.0521.420
97
Max land speed (mph)
19981,898.961965.87671997.73739.24597.3714.067761.6895640.21312.6412.6347.6220.0280.410
98
Ship Tonnage
Royal Sovereign
17011637163716821522152217391883220.49119.399.27moderate1440.2400Progress10
Iron hull instead of ironclad wooden hull seems perhaps relevant, though they [?] say that steam power was what led to the discontinuity
Danielhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iUTwqlafTPd74MEG8w9rHyTYFKLwg2MsBI4-I8bC5Us/edit?usp=sharing
99
Ship TonnageRoyal George17561637163717371522152219212047660.481310.5210.30moderate1260.1310Progress10
100
Ship TonnageBrittania17621637163717561522152220472116770.48108.528.44moderate690.0810.5Progress10
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