ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBABBBCBDBEBFBGBHBIBJBKBL
1
MetricEvent nameDescriptionYeartat0t1tlm0m1mlmaNhNtexpYears of past progress that occurred at onceWeighted (linear) average of exponential and linear discontinuityWeighted (geometric) average of exponential and linear discontinuityScale of discontinuityIncrease during discontinuityLog increase during discontinuityYears of past progress/length of trendYears of past progress that occurred in N years/error looking N years out [add something like this? xxx]Factor change over extrapolated pointFactor change over last datapointCause: in a few words, our impressionsCause: large spike in effort on metric? (0-5)Cause: tech progress? (0-5)If tech progress cause: fundamentally new approach? (0-5)Certainty about fundamental:
1 = more certain
0 = less certain
Notes on causesEvidence that discont. was anticipated?Clear reason discont. might have been anticipated?How many years in advance did major governments anticipate this discontinuity? (Our guess)Was discontinuity anticipated (by us or submittor)How much did this change the world? (0-10)Closest relevant sectorHow much did it revolutionize that sector? (0-10)Did it result in a "takeover" of the sector by one faction?Guess at effort directed at metric (1-5)Number of discontinuities in a rowDelay since last point (years)How we heard of itType of metric (performance, price, adoption, etc)Exponential or linear trend?Clear abrupt change between clear rates of growth?Growth change coincides with a discont.?Growth rate beforeGrowth rate afterAt least 5 datapoints before potential discont.?Clear trend divergence?Pre-discont: ongoing progress or stagnation?Pre-discont: progress measured within past 20 years?Looks intuitively like a clear impressive jump relative to a going trend?Why not?Why else not relevant?Other notesLarge, divergesModerate, divergesSubstantial, divergesMain researcherData sheetMain pageDate published
2
201876999158216.909.860.448275862141201714620
3
140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.296220.511,4651,810.841,776.36large2.530.2472.971.7701?1100s1notrend too shortnobody trying000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
4
140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
Telegraph18599991841.6222221856.6252.7210.9814.1545515120.352,0831,425.38922.64large4411.507138.8732.1451?4211p1yes101https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
5
140 character message average speed to cross Atlantic
2nd Telegraph18679991841.62222218592.7210.98454.793538116130.351,329868.19254.41large349261.89178.2277.8011?4811p1yes101https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
6
Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.296220.511,4651,810.841,776.36large30.2472.971.7701?1100s1notrend too shortnobody trying000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Oregon (steamship)
18849991841.6222221884.2638892.7210.9817.121932250.45108.958.88moderate10.0350.231.0810?1010p1no
small compared to scale of trend, maybe scale of noise
very small
Does look surprising, just not very big
000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
8
Military payload average speed across Atlantic
WWI Bomber19199991841.6222221909.752.7210.9826.0610663560.35351263.75227.06large800.6095.164.0741?31011p1yes101https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
9
Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Focke-Wulf Fw 200 Condor
193999919191937.5166672.72106.00138.371746520.451916.8616.71moderate360.1001.041.2610?2100p1no
few points, not clear trend, since trend changed
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
10
Military payload average speed across Atlantic
Lockheed Constellation
19469991919.45819392.72106.001742886630.352520.4019.37moderate1130.2181.291.6511?2700p1no
few points, not clear trend, since trend changed
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
11
Military payload average speed across Atlantic
ICBM19589991937.5166671945.7527782.72138.3711344287.52100006440.2524425.17292.03large97121.54163.6834.7841?31201p1yes
not a clear trend, but just very big compared to any plausible trend
101Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
12
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Columbus's 2nd voyage
14949999991492.7833332.722.723.296220.511,4651,810.841,776.36large2.530.2472.971.7701?3100s1notrend too shortnobody trying000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
13
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Oregon (steamship)
18849991841.6222221884.2638892.7210.9817.121932250.45108.958.88moderate1.440.0350.231.0810?4010p1no
small compared to scale of trend, maybe scale of noise
very small
Does look surprising, just not very big
000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
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Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
WWI Bomber19199991841.6222221909.752.7210.9826.0610663560.35351263.75227.06large800.6095.164.0741131011p1yes101https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
15
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Focke-Wulf Fw 200 Condor
193999919191937.5166672.72106.00138.371746520.451916.8616.71moderate35.710.1001.041.261003100p1no
sparse, not clear trend, since trend changed
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
16
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Lockheed Constellation
19469991919.45819392.72106.001742886630.352520.4019.37moderate1130.2181.291.651103700p1no
sparse, not clear trend, since trend changed
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
17
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
Concorde19749991937.5166671958.7611112.72138.37486.01825210356950.41910.305.78moderate5490.3280.882.132.50?41510p1sort ofshort trend
surprising, but not huge relative to noise, sparse data, decade gap makes more gradual slope imaginable
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
18
Passenger average speed in knots to cross Atlantic
SR-7119759991937.51666719742.72138.37103515697060.42114.9813.02moderate5340.1810.571.5210?110p1sort ofunclear trend
surprising, but not wildly so, sparse, unclear trend
000https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WV8JUIZeVNWKfggCmHaCEJrtG_YMiOdq18zjfwFUVk/edit?usp=sharing
19
Longest Bridge Span
Chakzam Bridge
1430-27-271377105105236449440.22,2301,996.281,922.42large2130.2791.591.903053000sort of
sparse data, very old
very old, unclear that we know what else existed
000Michelle
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yPB8sDbWCXzmJwFbcOX6Al2ADip2P-h5ADC-X9MAoNU/edit?usp=sharing
20
Longest Bridge Span
Great Suspension Bridge
1834-2713771826105236577889630.4403325.33309.88large3120.1880.901.54108001no
sparse, somewhat old, unclear trend
000
21
Longest Bridge Span
Niagara Clifton Bridge
1869-27182618661055771,05612601050.41411.9011.59moderate2040.0770.351.19103101no
sparse, unclear trend
000
22
Longest Bridge Span
George Washington Bridge
1931-27182619291055771,850350115100.4132100.7192.41large16510.2771.281.89102111yes
larger than scale of noise and uncertainty in trend
101
23
Longest Bridge Span
Akashi-Kaikyo Bridge
1998-27182619811055774,630653219140.45636.8926.41moderate19020.1490.361.411017101no
unclear trend, within plausible noise
000
24
Light intensityArgon Candle1943-424-42419431.51.513200.0600000440.999511,418.801,585.37large5868001.6580.4245.45410001no
short or sparse trend
surprising, but not relative to a clear trend
000
25
Rate of book production (books/century)
Century-scale book production 900
9006006008001.36E+041.36E+044.37E+04202000330.55162517.59359.78large1583000.6650.814.62100100000no
short, unclear trend
000Asyahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pgo0QizEMonIo11RvE2ErbyocKHXhV08EyXBYrmWVgk/edit#gid=1417825149, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ur7KC971u2hUhV-FEYFVhnKvFtyT72Ow5XLjA5ermr4/edit#gid=918335158https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
26
Rate of book production (books/century)
Century-scale book production 1200
120060060011001.36E+041.36E+042.12E+05769000660.7135485.32265.96large5570000.5600.273.63100100100no
Unclear trend, in that the scale is such that 100 year seem common from the outset
000
27
Rate of book production (books/century)
Century-scale book production 1300
130060060012001.36E+041.36E+047.69E+051760000770.7523189.1253.98moderate9910000.3600.042.29100100100no
somewhat surprising
000
28
Rate of book production (books/century)
Printing Press150060060014001.36E+041.36E+042.75E+0617600000990.9180585.88246.52large148500000.8060.226.40411100100no
somewhat surprising
000
29
Rate of book production (books/century)
Century-scale book production 1550
155060060015001.36E+041.36E+041.76E+077900000010100.9139433.96189.06large614000000.6520.154.4910050100no 000
30
Cotton Productivity (lb/worker/day)
Whitney's Gin1795-400017471788132.5125333420.72341.5333.88moderate2080.4260.562.662.5117001no
small, sparse, noisy
000
31
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Balloon 17841784-350000-2001783.919444252002.70E+0340006401,0321,031.561,031.56large13000.1710.521.4820?0001no
sparse, unclear trend
000
32
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Balloon 18041804-350000-200178425200400072807501,6931,692.961,692.96large32800.2600.851.8211?20101sort of
sparse, unclear trend
surprising000
33
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Paris Gun1918-3500001783.9194441914252.70E+031.70E+04423001160.48227147.10120.37large253410.3971.752.491104111yes
pretty straight trend, big jump
101
34
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
V2 Rocket 1943
1943-3500001783.9194441918.161111252.70E+0342300850001270.4812067.0235.45large427000.3030.902.012.50?25100no
sparse, unclear trend, large jump just prior
just had a huge jump
000
35
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
V2 Rocket 1944
1944-35000019141942.758333251.70E+04850001740001330.81116.0414.01moderate890000.3110.382.050.51?2001sort ofunclear trend000
36
Altitude Record, manned or unmanned (meters)
Pellets (one day of travel)
1958-3500001942.7583331957.641667258.50E+041.34E+0686400000018613534.7634.76moderate8626600002.8092.34644.782.5100111yes
clear trend, even on log scale looks crazy
011
37
Group index of light
Coherent Population Trapping
1995140019621994.812.42.41.65E+023000530.992227.4422.67moderate28351.2600.6718.1831?1001noshort000Rickhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rtAbkBsR5Jo-f7zvloi4fepxErZKpMOVoVe495F1TfM/edit?usp=sharing
38
Group index of light
Electromagnetically Induced Transparency
1999140019621995.362.42.43.00E+0317600000640.99371,994.9040.26moderate175970003.7681.115866.672.51?4001noshort000
39
"Relative effectiveness" of explosive
Early nuclear weapons
194580080019420.50.51.854500550.66,8021,526,120.9485,456.46large44983.3865.962432.435113111yes101Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZh0wfCW-DrJjYLNgGW_TML-gmq1xZ44PfsfSCP5nlo/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-nuclear-weapons/
40
Maximum temperature for superconduction
NbN19411910.821910.821929.944.154.159.2616330.21411.599.33moderate70.2380.731.7320011001noshort, unclear000Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZh0wfCW-DrJjYLNgGW_TML-gmq1xZ44PfsfSCP5nlo/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
41
Maximum temperature for superconduction
LaBaCuO419861910.821910.821973.334.154.1523.235660.22621.2915.98moderate120.1790.421.513.51013101no000
42
Maximum temperature for superconduction
YBa2Cu3O719871910.821910.821986.004.154.153593770.35140102.9484.97large580.4241.872.662011111yes101
43
Maximum temperature for superconduction
BiCaSrCu2O919881910.821910.821987.004.154.1593105880.35107.185.99moderate120.0530.131.1320?1101no
second after a big jump
000
44
Max airspeed (mph)Fairey Delta 219561903.961903.961955.646.826.82822.1113260600.11917.4715.81moderate3100.1390.371.3810?1111yes011Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m7xLC684oPjwnjLGOskV0LyO_JOeQh7G23f55ihPva4/edit#gid=0https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation
45
Tallest ever structure height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-40005513633318,5108,509.968,509.96large500.6821.424.8110?1350010noold, sparse101
46
Tallest ever structure height
Meidum Pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.5924411,0741,074.001,074.00large290.1660.151.4710?40000noold, sparse000
47
Tallest ever structure height
Washington Monument
1884-10000-10000131155160169990106105.66105.66large90.0250.011.0610?573100no
no ongoing progress
000
48
Tallest ever structure height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000-10000188455169.3300101009,4499,448.679,448.67large1310.2480.801.77105101no
little ongoing progress
000
49
Tallest ever structure height
Empire State Building
1931-1000018841930.415169.3318.938112301918.6818.68moderate620.0770.401.19101001nounclear trend000
50
Tallest ever structure height
KVLY-TV mast1963-10000188419625169.3533629191002019.5519.55moderate960.0720.251.18101101no
surprising, but small
000
51
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-40005513633318,5108,509.968,509.96large500.6821.424.81101350010noold, sparse101Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-eiffel-tower/
52
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Meidum Pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.5924411,0741,074.001,074.00large290.1660.151.471040000noold, sparse000
53
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Washington Monument
1884-10000-10000131155160169990106105.66105.66large90.0250.011.0610573100no
no ongoing progress
000
54
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000-10000188455169.3300101009,4499,448.679,448.67large1310.2480.801.77105101no
little ongoing progress
000
55
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Empire State Building
1931-1000018841930.415169.3318.938112301918.6818.68moderate620.0770.401.19101001nounclear trend000
56
Tallest ever freestanding structure height
Burj Khalifa2009-10000188419755169.355383016703231.6531.65moderate2770.1760.351.501034100no
no recent progress
000
57
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Pyramid of Djoser
-2650-10000-10000-40005513633318,5108,509.968,509.96large500.6821.424.81101350010noold, sparse101Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-eiffel-tower/
58
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Meidum Pyramid
-2610-10000-10000-26505562.5924411,0741,074.001,074.00large290.1660.151.471040000noold, sparse000
59
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Beauvais Cathedral
1569-10000-1000015495515115310100138138.21138.21large20.0060.011.011020100no
negative progress
000
60
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
St Nikolai1874-10000-1000016475514214713130224223.58223.58large50.0160.021.0410227100no
sparse recent progress
000
61
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Rouen Cathedral
1876-10000-10000187455147.315114140307306.74306.74large40.0110.031.03102101no
sparse recent progress
000
62
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Eiffel Tower1889-10000187418845147.3169.330017405454.4154.41moderate1310.2485.441.77105011yes
recent trend was only four points, so a bit questionable
011
63
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Empire State Building
1931-10000187419305147.3318.938119601919.2719.27moderate620.0770.341.19101101nounclear trend000
64
Tallest existing freestanding structure height
Burj Khalifa2009-10000187419755147.3553830231003534.9134.91moderate2770.1760.351.501034100no
no recent progress
000
65
Tallest ever building heights
Singer Building1908122112211889140140167.5187331383382.61382.61large190.0470.571.111019001no
little recent progress
000Beth, Katjahttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cnvlMpQsLye0Z0m98vMXN7k4nryxvoN3L1_aH9xho4I/edit#gid=175617501https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuity-from-the-burj-khalifa/
66
Tallest ever building heights
Metropolitan Life Tower
1909122112211908140140186.57213441320319.99319.99large270.0580.471.14101001no
little recent progress
000
67
Tallest ever building heights
Empire State Building
1931122119081930.408333140186.57318.9381850109.649.64moderate620.0770.431.19101101no
sparse, unclear trend
000
68
Tallest ever building heights
Taipei 1012004122119081998140186.57451.950912901313.4413.44moderate570.0520.151.13106101nounclear trend000
69
Tallest ever building heights
Burj Khalifa2009122119082004140186.57509.2828131009089.8689.86moderate3190.2110.941.63105111yes
trend not super clear, but big jump
011
70
Ship size (BOM, assuming exponential growth)
Great Eastern18581637163718551522152238532299019191416large191370.7761.915.971.50311p1yes101
71
Ship size (displacement, assuming exponential growth)
Great Eastern1858163716371855250025006,0653216014141407large260950.7241.875.301.50311p1yes101
72
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Royal Sovereign
17011637163716821522152217391883220.49119.399.27moderate1440.0350.241.0810
Iron hull instead of ironclad wooden hull seems perhaps relevant, though they [?] say that steam power was what led to the discontinuity
19001no000Danielhttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iUTwqlafTPd74MEG8w9rHyTYFKLwg2MsBI4-I8bC5Us/edit?usp=sharing
73
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Royal George17561637163717371522152219212047660.481310.5210.30moderate1260.0280.131.07101910p1no000
74
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Brittania17621637163717561522152220472116770.48108.528.44moderate690.0140.081.0310610p1no000
75
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Ville de Paris1795163716371786152215222175235110100.483127.4727.20moderate1760.0340.211.0810910p1no000
76
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Hibernia1804163716371795152215222351253011110.482521.5421.21moderate1790.0320.161.0810910p1no000
77
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Queen1839163716371832152215222694310416160.554150.3149.35moderate4100.0620.211.1510710p1no000
78
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Duke of Wellington
1852163716371839152215223104375917170.64153.0151.17moderate6550.0830.201.21101310p1no000
79
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Victoria1859163716371855152215223853411619190.651114.6814.10moderate2630.0290.051.0710410p1no000
80
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Warrior1860163716371860152215224236603921210.857787.8985.18moderate18030.1540.351.4310011p1yesbut small011
81
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Minotaur1863163716371863152215226121664323230.91314.5314.19moderate5220.0360.061.0910010p1no000
82
Royal Navy ship tonnage (builders old measurement)
Inflexible1876163716371863152215226,6438946242413332.6532.65moderate23030.1290.141.35101310p1no000
83
Royal Navy ship displacement
Victory17651637163717622500250035003600550.45108.588.52moderate1000.0120.081.03103101no000
84
Royal Navy ship displacement
Hibernia18041637163717952500250039004200880.61720.3420.02moderate3000.0320.111.08109101no000
85
Royal Navy ship displacement
Queen1839163716371832250025004500510011110.63541.3140.51moderate6000.0540.181.13107101no000
86
Royal Navy ship displacement
Duke of Wellington
1852163716371839250025005100582912120.652531.4330.27moderate7290.0580.121.141013101no000
87
Royal Navy ship displacement
Howe1860163716371855250025006065700014140.753035.7434.68moderate9350.0620.141.15105101no000
88
Royal Navy ship displacement
Warrior1860163716371860250025007000918015150.85968.5866.33moderate21800.1180.261.31100111yesbut small011
89
Royal Navy ship displacement
Minotaur18631637163718602500250091801069016160.92325.5424.83moderate15100.0660.101.16103101no000
90
Royal Navy ship displacement
Inflexible187616371637187525002500108201188018180.91415.7015.25moderate10600.0410.061.10101101no000
91
92
93
94
Discontinuous events:
95
Unique total63Total numbers10515
96
Unique large29Large39
97
Unique moderate35Moderate49
98
64Total88
99
100