A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

1 | The Spreadsheet of RAPE | ||||||

2 | (simple prediction model) | ||||||

3 | We divide the population into two categories: those that would rape you if they had the chance, and those that wouldn't. You can guess which category any given person will fall into, if you want, with a certain degree of success; for simplicity's sake, we'll assume that if you correctly spot a non-rapist 90% of the time, you also correctly spot a rapist 90% of the time. You pay a cost if you decide to guard against rape when dealing with a non-rapist. | ||||||

4 | You also pay a cost for getting raped, of course. If you choose to guard against a rapist, your guard will either be successful, in which you pay no cost, or it may fail, in which case you pay the full cost of being raped. | ||||||

5 | |||||||

6 | 6.0% | Odds of encountering a rapist | |||||

7 | 75.0% | Odds of predicting who is a rapist or non-rapist | |||||

8 | 100 | Cost of falsely guarding against rape | |||||

9 | 10000 | Cost of being raped | |||||

10 | 50.0% | Success rate of guarding against rape | |||||

11 | |||||||

12 | 394 | Expected cost of always being on guard | |||||

13 | 398.5 | Expected cost of being on guard when you think it's necessary | |||||

14 | 600 | Expected cost of never being on guard | |||||

15 | |||||||

16 | Therefore, | always be on guard against rape. | |||||

17 | |||||||

18 | A Guide to Create Realistic Numbers | ||||||

19 | |||||||

20 | Odds of encountering a rapist: | Between 6% and 33%, over a lifetime. 6-14% of men indirectly admit to raping someone, or attempting to do so. | |||||

21 | Odds of predicting who is a rapist: | Low. Obvious rapists are easily avoided, so there's evolutionary pressure to appear normal. Assuming perfect normality, the odds of correctly predicting who is a rapist are on par with their incidence in the population. Imperfect normality leads to a higher probability, of course, in proportion to how obvious rapists are in the general population. | |||||

22 | Success rate of guarding against rape: | Low. ~80% of rapes are done by someone known to the victim, suggesting the offenders took their time to establish trust and get the victim to drop their guard, or waited for a momentary lapse. | |||||

23 | Sources: | http://www.torontopolice.on.ca/sexcrimes/sas/statistics.php | |||||

24 | http://freethoughtblogs.com/zinniajones/2012/09/rapists-dont-look-like-rapists-continued/ | ||||||

25 | http://yesmeansyesblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/12/meet-the-predators/ | ||||||

26 | http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/commonmyths2.php |

Loading...