StateNationalTrueVoteModel403
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9/25/20111988-2008 True Vote Model
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Richard Charnin website ' Proving Election Fraud ' TRUE MATH: Confirmation of Election Fraud
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Richard Charnin BlogGetting Started with the True Vote Model2004-2008 Election Analysis
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Introduction to the True Vote ModelNational Election Data Archive
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View/Download a True Vote Calc Sheet (PDF)Election Defense Alliance
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Uncounted, Stuffed & Switched VotesEdison-Mitofsky 2004 Report
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THIS IS AN OLD VERSION. CLICK FOR THE CURRENT:
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http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm
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INPUT in YELLOW (col C) cells only! DO NOT TRY TO INSERT, DELETE OR MOVE ANY COLUMNS OR ROWS!
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Input Data Section (calculation methods below)WI FEASIBLE MIX TO TARGET UNADJ EXIT POLLFINAL NAT'L EXIT POLL (RECORDED)
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2004MixKerryBushOtherTurnoutMixKerryBushOther
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Election Year (1988-2008)20041New/DNV 18.6%55.6%43.2%1.2%-17%54%44%2%
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NA(National) or State abbrev.WIGore40.5%88.6%10.8%0.6%98.0%37%90%10%0%
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Calculation Method 1-54Bush37.2%9.7%90.3%0.0%98.0%43%9%91%0%
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Other3.7%62.3%24.2%13.5%98.0%3%64%14%22%
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Change returning 2000 voter defaultsExit Poll100%52.10%46.92%0.98%98.0%100%48.27%50.73%1.00%
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Returning Gore 98% turnout toRecorded100%49.70%49.32%0.98%
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Returning Bush 98% turnout to
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Uncounted Votes-Gore 75% toNational EV Model
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Bush 100% net stuffed to2New/DNV EXIT POLL DISCREPANCYMarginDiffKerryBush
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Enter 1 to TARGET Exit Poll1Exit Poll3,0101,5681,412301565.18%--
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Enter a TARGET shareRecorded2,9971,4901,47829110.38%252286
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Net Adjust.-13-79660-1454.80%< WPD
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WHAT-IF: change default Dem shares1988-2004 electoral votes are based on 2008 electoral college and differ slightly from actuals.
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DNV from 55.61% to
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Returning Gore from 88.56% to
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Returning Bush from 9.73% toSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
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Returning Other from 62.28% toNew/DNV Kerry Exit Poll Method 4
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3Share of New/DNV
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4-year voter mortality: 5% toShare of51.6%53.6%55.6%57.6%59.6%
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BushVote share
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11.7%52.1%52.5%52.8%53.2%53.6%
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New/DNV Adjustments10.7%51.7%52.1%52.5%52.8%53.2%
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Uncounted/Total Cast9.7%51.4%51.7%52.1%52.5%52.8%
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Kerry uncounted (default 75%)8.7%51.0%51.4%51.7%52.1%52.5%
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Kerry share of stuffed 7.7%50.6%51.0%51.4%51.7%52.1%
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Margin
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11.7%156178201223246
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Calculation methods 10.7%134156178201223
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Allocation (mix) of returning voters9.7%111134156178201
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based on previous election8.7%89111133156178
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1 - Official Recorded vote7.7%6689111133156
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2 - Votes Cast (recorded+net uncounted)
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3 - Unadjusted state exit polls
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4 - Recursive True Vote (calculated)
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4WI DEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL vs. RECORDED and NATIONAL VOTE SHARE
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Method 5: 198819921996200020042008Average
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Displays the National Exit Poll (forced to match the Exit Poll50.8%42.4%50.2%46.6%52.1%63.3%50.9%
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recorded vote) and vote shares to match a target state voteRecorded51.4%41.1%48.8%47.8%49.7%56.2%49.2%
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National45.7%43.0%49.2%48.4%48.3%52.9%47.9%
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Margin5.8%-1.9%-0.4%-0.6%1.4%3.3%1.3%
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WI Democratic Presidential Vote
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Exit Poll, Recorded and National Shares 5WI RECORDED PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE
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198819921996200020042008Average
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Democrat51.4%41.1%48.8%47.8%49.7%56.2%49.17%
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Republican47.8%36.8%38.5%47.6%49.3%42.3%43.72%
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Margin3.6%4.3%10.3%0.2%0.4%13.9%5.45%
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6WIDEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL vs. RECORDED VOTEAverage
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Exit Poll50.8%42.4%50.2%46.6%52.1%63.3%50.90%
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Recorded51.4%41.1%48.8%47.8%49.7%56.2%49.17%
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Deviation-0.6%1.3%1.4%-1.2%2.4%7.1%1.73%
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7NATIONAL RECORDED VOTE SHARE
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198819921996200020042008Average
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Democrat45.65%43.01%49.23%48.38%48.27%52.87%47.90%
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Republican53.37%37.45%40.72%47.87%50.73%45.62%45.96%
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Margin-7.72%5.56%8.51%0.51%-2.46%7.25%1.94%
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8DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL TRUE VOTE vs. RECORDED VOTE
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Method198819921996200020042008Average
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Recorded45.6%43.0%49.2%48.4%48.3%52.9%47.90%
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True Vote 145.6%48.8%48.4%48.2%52.3%54.6%49.65%
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True Vote 250.6%50.0%50.0%49.6%53.3%55.4%51.48%
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True Vote 350.6%49.4%50.1%48.9%52.9%57.0%51.48%
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True Vote 450.2%51.1%53.6%51.1%53.7%58.0%52.95%
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9New/DNV COMPONENTS OF FRAUD
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TotalKerryBushOther
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Exit Poll100%52.1%46.9%1.0%
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Votes Cast3,0101,5681,41230% Cast
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Uncounted1310300.43%
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