| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | |
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2 | 9/25/2011 | 1988-2008 True Vote Model | ||||||||||||
3 | Richard Charnin website | ' Proving Election Fraud ' | TRUE MATH: Confirmation of Election Fraud | |||||||||||
4 | Richard Charnin Blog | Getting Started with the True Vote Model | 2004-2008 Election Analysis | |||||||||||
5 | Introduction to the True Vote Model | National Election Data Archive | ||||||||||||
6 | View/Download a True Vote Calc Sheet (PDF) | Election Defense Alliance | ||||||||||||
7 | Uncounted, Stuffed & Switched Votes | Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Report | ||||||||||||
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10 | THIS IS AN OLD VERSION. CLICK FOR THE CURRENT: | |||||||||||||
11 | http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm | |||||||||||||
12 | INPUT in YELLOW (col C) cells only! DO NOT TRY TO INSERT, DELETE OR MOVE ANY COLUMNS OR ROWS! | |||||||||||||
13 | Input Data Section (calculation methods below) | WI | FEASIBLE MIX TO TARGET UNADJ EXIT POLL | FINAL NAT'L EXIT POLL (RECORDED) | ||||||||||
14 | 2004 | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | Turnout | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | ||||
15 | Election Year (1988-2008) | 2004 | 1 | New/DNV | 18.6% | 55.6% | 43.2% | 1.2% | - | 17% | 54% | 44% | 2% | |
16 | NA(National) or State abbrev. | WI | Gore | 40.5% | 88.6% | 10.8% | 0.6% | 98.0% | 37% | 90% | 10% | 0% | ||
17 | Calculation Method 1-5 | 4 | Bush | 37.2% | 9.7% | 90.3% | 0.0% | 98.0% | 43% | 9% | 91% | 0% | ||
18 | Other | 3.7% | 62.3% | 24.2% | 13.5% | 98.0% | 3% | 64% | 14% | 22% | ||||
19 | ||||||||||||||
20 | Change returning 2000 voter defaults | Exit Poll | 100% | 52.10% | 46.92% | 0.98% | 98.0% | 100% | 48.27% | 50.73% | 1.00% | |||
21 | Returning Gore 98% turnout to | Recorded | 100% | 49.70% | 49.32% | 0.98% | ||||||||
22 | Returning Bush 98% turnout to | |||||||||||||
23 | Uncounted Votes-Gore 75% to | National EV Model | ||||||||||||
24 | Bush 100% net stuffed to | 2 | New/DNV EXIT POLL DISCREPANCY | Margin | Diff | Kerry | Bush | |||||||
25 | Enter 1 to TARGET Exit Poll | 1 | Exit Poll | 3,010 | 1,568 | 1,412 | 30 | 156 | 5.18% | - | - | |||
26 | Enter a TARGET share | Recorded | 2,997 | 1,490 | 1,478 | 29 | 11 | 0.38% | 252 | 286 | ||||
27 | Net Adjust. | -13 | -79 | 66 | 0 | -145 | 4.80% | < WPD | ||||||
28 | WHAT-IF: change default Dem shares | 1988-2004 electoral votes are based on 2008 electoral college and differ slightly from actuals. | ||||||||||||
29 | DNV from 55.61% to | |||||||||||||
30 | Returning Gore from 88.56% to | |||||||||||||
31 | Returning Bush from 9.73% to | SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | ||||||||||||
32 | Returning Other from 62.28% to | New/DNV | Kerry Exit Poll Method 4 | |||||||||||
33 | 3 | Share of New/DNV | ||||||||||||
34 | 4-year voter mortality: 5% to | Share of | 51.6% | 53.6% | 55.6% | 57.6% | 59.6% | |||||||
35 | Bush | Vote share | ||||||||||||
36 | 11.7% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 52.8% | 53.2% | 53.6% | ||||||||
37 | New/DNV Adjustments | 10.7% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 52.8% | 53.2% | |||||||
38 | Uncounted/Total Cast | 9.7% | 51.4% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 52.8% | |||||||
39 | Kerry uncounted (default 75%) | 8.7% | 51.0% | 51.4% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 52.5% | |||||||
40 | Kerry share of stuffed | 7.7% | 50.6% | 51.0% | 51.4% | 51.7% | 52.1% | |||||||
41 | Margin | |||||||||||||
42 | 11.7% | 156 | 178 | 201 | 223 | 246 | ||||||||
43 | Calculation methods | 10.7% | 134 | 156 | 178 | 201 | 223 | |||||||
44 | Allocation (mix) of returning voters | 9.7% | 111 | 134 | 156 | 178 | 201 | |||||||
45 | based on previous election | 8.7% | 89 | 111 | 133 | 156 | 178 | |||||||
46 | 1 - Official Recorded vote | 7.7% | 66 | 89 | 111 | 133 | 156 | |||||||
47 | 2 - Votes Cast (recorded+net uncounted) | |||||||||||||
48 | 3 - Unadjusted state exit polls | |||||||||||||
49 | 4 - Recursive True Vote (calculated) | |||||||||||||
50 | 4 | WI DEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL vs. RECORDED and NATIONAL VOTE SHARE | ||||||||||||
51 | Method 5: | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | Average | ||||||
52 | Displays the National Exit Poll (forced to match the | Exit Poll | 50.8% | 42.4% | 50.2% | 46.6% | 52.1% | 63.3% | 50.9% | |||||
53 | recorded vote) and vote shares to match a target state vote | Recorded | 51.4% | 41.1% | 48.8% | 47.8% | 49.7% | 56.2% | 49.2% | |||||
54 | National | 45.7% | 43.0% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 48.3% | 52.9% | 47.9% | ||||||
55 | Margin | 5.8% | -1.9% | -0.4% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | ||||||
56 | ||||||||||||||
57 | ||||||||||||||
58 | ||||||||||||||
59 | WI Democratic Presidential Vote | |||||||||||||
60 | Exit Poll, Recorded and National Shares | 5 | WI RECORDED PRESIDENTIAL VOTE SHARE | |||||||||||
61 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | Average | |||||||
62 | Democrat | 51.4% | 41.1% | 48.8% | 47.8% | 49.7% | 56.2% | 49.17% | ||||||
63 | Republican | 47.8% | 36.8% | 38.5% | 47.6% | 49.3% | 42.3% | 43.72% | ||||||
64 | Margin | 3.6% | 4.3% | 10.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 13.9% | 5.45% | ||||||
65 | ||||||||||||||
66 | ||||||||||||||
67 | 6 | WI | DEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL vs. RECORDED VOTE | Average | ||||||||||
68 | Exit Poll | 50.8% | 42.4% | 50.2% | 46.6% | 52.1% | 63.3% | 50.90% | ||||||
69 | Recorded | 51.4% | 41.1% | 48.8% | 47.8% | 49.7% | 56.2% | 49.17% | ||||||
70 | Deviation | -0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% | 2.4% | 7.1% | 1.73% | ||||||
71 | ||||||||||||||
72 | ||||||||||||||
73 | 7 | NATIONAL RECORDED VOTE SHARE | ||||||||||||
74 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | Average | |||||||
75 | Democrat | 45.65% | 43.01% | 49.23% | 48.38% | 48.27% | 52.87% | 47.90% | ||||||
76 | Republican | 53.37% | 37.45% | 40.72% | 47.87% | 50.73% | 45.62% | 45.96% | ||||||
77 | Margin | -7.72% | 5.56% | 8.51% | 0.51% | -2.46% | 7.25% | 1.94% | ||||||
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81 | ||||||||||||||
82 | 8 | DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL TRUE VOTE vs. RECORDED VOTE | ||||||||||||
83 | Method | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | Average | ||||||
84 | Recorded | 45.6% | 43.0% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 48.3% | 52.9% | 47.90% | ||||||
85 | True Vote 1 | 45.6% | 48.8% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 52.3% | 54.6% | 49.65% | ||||||
86 | True Vote 2 | 50.6% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 53.3% | 55.4% | 51.48% | ||||||
87 | True Vote 3 | 50.6% | 49.4% | 50.1% | 48.9% | 52.9% | 57.0% | 51.48% | ||||||
88 | True Vote 4 | 50.2% | 51.1% | 53.6% | 51.1% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 52.95% | ||||||
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96 | 9 | New/DNV COMPONENTS OF FRAUD | ||||||||||||
97 | Total | Kerry | Bush | Other | ||||||||||
98 | Exit Poll | 100% | 52.1% | 46.9% | 1.0% | |||||||||
99 | Votes Cast | 3,010 | 1,568 | 1,412 | 30 | % Cast | ||||||||
100 | Uncounted | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0.43% | ||||||||