PLTR - Sample DCF.xlsx - Google Sheets

	B	D	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG	AH
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5			Base Yr	Projection Period															Terminal Growth							Diluted Growth
6		Estimates ($mn)	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033		5.89	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%		5.89	10%	15%	20%	25%	30%
7		Revenues	1,905	2,286	2,743	3,292	3,950	4,740	5,688	6,826	8,191	9,829	11,795	14,154		9%	10.9	11.9	13.2	15.1	17.9		10%	2.8	3.4	4.3	5.7	7.7
8		Growth (diluted)	24%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%		11%	8.3	8.8	9.5	10.3	11.4		15%	3.5	4.4	5.8	7.9	10.8
9		FCF Margin (after tax)	22%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%	WACC	13%	6.7	7.0	7.4	7.8	8.3	FCF margin	20%	4.2	5.5	7.4	10.1	14.0
10		Rule of 40%	46%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%		15%	5.6	5.8	6.0	6.2	6.5		25%	4.9	6.5	8.9	12.3	17.2
11		Free Cash Flow	420	457	549	658	790	948	1,138	1,365	1,638	1,966	2,359	2,831		17%	4.8	4.9	5.1	5.2	5.4		30%	5.6	7.6	10.4	14.5	20.4
22		WACC	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%
25		Number of Shares	2,146	2,210	2,277	2,345	2,415	2,488	2,563	2,639	2,719	2,800	2,884	2,971
26		Number of Shares % Change	7%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
27		Discounted Cash Flow per Share ($)	0.20	0.18	0.19	0.19	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.22	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.25
28		Source: Arnaldo Trezzi
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30		Key Assumptions:						DCF valuation ($mn)				Rolling
31		Growth (diluted) '23-'33	20%					PV of future cash flows per share				2.1
32		23-33 FCF Margin (after Tax) '23-'33	20%					PV of Terminal value per share				2.5							Terminal Growth							Diluted Growth
33		WACC	13%					Fair Enterprise value per share				4.6				8.29	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%			10%	15%	20%	25%	30%
34		Perpetuity Growth Rate	3%					Implied EV/FCF 23E (x)				22 x				9%	10.9	11.9	13.2	15.1	17.9		10%	2.8	3.4	4.3	5.7	7.7
35		Terminal Value						Net Cash 2023E per share				1.3				11%	8.3	8.8	9.5	10.3	11.4		15%	3.5	4.4	5.8	7.9	10.8
36		Perpetuity Growth Rate	3.0%					Minorities (net of related debt)				0			WACC	13%	6.7	7.0	7.4	7.8	8.3	FCF Margin	20%	4.2	5.5	7.4	10.1	14.0
37		FCF 2032E	0.9					Fair PRICE per share				5.9				15%	5.6	5.8	6.0	6.2	6.5		25%	4.9	6.5	8.9	12.3	17.2
38		TV	9.5					Current price				8				17%	4.8	4.9	5.1	5.2	5.4		30%	5.6	7.6	10.4	14.5	20.4
39		PV of TV	2.5					Upside (-downside)				-26%
40																20% Diluted Growth							13% WACC
41																20% FCF Margin							3% terminal
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87		Palantir prezzo	7.96
88	call	strike	8
89		valore	0.23
90			3%
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92		Palantir prezzo dopo	30
93		opzione	22
94		loss per opzione	-21.77
95		loss su opzioni	-21.77
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97	1	azioni
98		valore iniziale	7.96
99		valore finale	30
100		guadagno su azioni	22.04
101		diff guadagno opzione/azione	0.27
102		incasso premio	0.23
103		totale	0.5
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